https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/25/investing/us-dollar-decline-currency-markets
“The consensus out there is that US growth is slowing owing to uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs and other things,” Eichengreen said. “The weakness of the dollar may also reflect new doubts about the currency’s safe haven status.”
The dollar’s decline reflects a crisis of confidence in the United States, said Arun Sai, senior multi asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management. “If you cannot with certainty take a view on the position of the US administration, it’s hard to commit capital,” Sai said. “What we’ve seen with the current administration in the last few months is that this notion of the US being a default destination for global capital is being challenged.”
The Trump administration’s flip-flopping on tariffs has been “detrimental to confidence” in the US dollar, according to Sai.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency
1. 6 months: (since Trump took office)-VERY strong downtrend. Dropping from 110 to 97 in a short period. Below the April low.
2. 1 year: Downside breakout below 100 AND below the April spike low. High of 110 in early January. Current price just above 97.
2. 10 years: Highs in 2022-113 Lower high Jan 2025-110. MEGA support 90! Will Trump's greatly flawed leadership cause the US dollar to drop that far???
Previous threads:
Analysis of the end of the petro $
Started by cutworm - July 23, 2024, 7:52 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/106138/
+++++++++++++++++
US Dollar
Started by metmike - Aug. 3, 2024, 6:08 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/106393/
China/France/US Dollar
Started by metmike - May 10, 2024, 8:39 a.m.
The world has lost confidence in US leadership. Biggest drop for the US dollar during the start(first 6 months) of a new administration in history.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
1. 1 year-Fastest 6 month plunge in history!
2. 5 year-Downside break out this month! VERY strong dollar during early Biden years that hung on till the end(yes, that surprised me too)
3. 10 years-Downside break out below 100. Next MAJOR support is way down at 90, which came at the end of COVID 2020 and Trumps last year of his first term. The US dollar had its biggest/fastest rise at the start of a new administration during President Biden's first 18 months. Part of this was a relief from the chaos of Trump 1.
The dollar continues to crash to new lows for this historically fast drop lower.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency
Late afternoon update:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency
1. 1 month-New downside break out right now after a bear flag.
2. 1 year-historic plunge this year in just 6 months. Extremely steep slope of the downtrend.
3. 10 years-Huge downside break out below 100. Will we plunge all the way down to 90 and super-mega support???
" 1 year-Fastest 6-month plunge in history!"
Let's take another look from 1-17-25 to 6-27-25 the $ fell from 110.015 high to 96.605, a 13.41 drop in 23 weeks, or .58304/week average. (this is the second leg down in the current down trend)
from 9-30-22 to 2-3-23 the $ fell from 114.745 to 102.850 a drop of 11.895 in 18 weeks or an average of .66083/week. (this was the first leg down of the current down trend)
the longest fall of this magnitude was 1-31-2002 to 12-31-2004 when the $ fell from 120.800 to 80.480 a 40.32 drop in 96 weeks and .42 / week
*Numbers from continuous charts at https://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/M
this fall while not complete is not the first time we have seen this. In my opinion there are many causes.
$36 trillion deficit
The deficit and the big bill $5 trillion budget deficit
the trade deficit. this is unsustainable.
BRIXS is another
Blame who you want but these problems have been going on for decades and may have reached a breaking point.
My approach to markets is to be nimble. I'm small but that is an advantage if I can be one of the first to get out of the theater when someone yells "fire". I'm mostly technically oriented. Fundamentals that I'm aware of are usually discounted. Once in a while (not often) I perceive something that I think is not discounted and I am willing to take a risk on it.
One example was in the first month of the pandemic when many were calling for shelter in place. For 2 or 3 weeks people complied. I would go out for a bike ride each day and I found it almost spooky that there were no cars on the road except for the occasional ambulance. Then, one day while out for a bike ride I noticed that there were more cars than usual on the road. Then it dawned on me. People aren't going to stay cooped up in their homes. Crude oil, which had gone negative previously was on the rebound. I should have bought crude. Instead I took a more conservative play. I bought Exxon. Trading around $32 / share, down from 100 the stock was yielding a 10% dividend at that depressed level. That worked out nicely. It was almost like I had gleaned inside information on my morning bike ride.
Why am I saying all of this in a thread about the US$? I'm not certain what the real fundamentals are for the US$ decline currently underway, as opposed to what the pundits are saying, which may or may not be the case. Is it anticipation of Fed rate cuts? Is is fiscal deficit expansion of "the big beautiful bill"? Is it growth scares from the upcoming tariffs?
I'm looking at the Spring of 2026. That is when the current term of Fed chairman Powell will be up. Trump calls him stupid for not cutting rates. But he won't fire him because if the economy does go south he can blame Powell. But I expect Trump to replace him with a loyalist (of course) next Spring who will do exactly what Trump wants which is to cut rates aggressively. (more aggressively than expected of Powell in the coming months). That will goose the economy short term but hurt the US$. This may be partly in the market with the current down trend. But I think it has a ways to go. Probably a low to be put in next Spring. (sell the rumor, buy the fact). Also, buy gold, which is hard to do at these high levels.
Every one of those are great points!
We can't keep going straight down without bounces. Maybe a buy the fact rally after the Big(NOT) Beautiful Bill is passed? Regardless, this is one market sending us some crystal clear messages about it's expectations for the United States in the coming months+ that include elements of cutworm and joj's comments.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency
" 1 year-Fastest 6-month plunge in history!"
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Thanks, cutworm,
I appreciate all the math and research but you confirmed the actual point that I was making. Your examples do apply to the quote above that you picked out but that wasn't the point that I was making.
Please use the point that I was making. I copied the ENTIRE quote from that page below that makes it historical.
Re: Re: US dollar getting crushed
By metmike - June 29, 2025, 7:49 p.m.
The world has lost confidence in US leadership. Biggest drop for the US dollar during the start(first 6 months) of a new administration in history.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
1. 1 year-Fastest 6 month plunge in history!
Re: Re: US dollar getting crushed
joj,
Great job buying Exxon Mobile. At $32/share and the low for this stock, this was a brilliant deduction that you used for timing the entry point.
You more than tripled your money on that investment!
Ignore the Tesla at the top of this chart below. It's the 10 year chart for Exxon Mobile.
