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https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/112055/
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By metmike - June 29, 2025, 4:37 p.m.
Big COOLER changes in the week 2 part of the forecast where the upper level ridge backs up westward and a modest trough develops in the eastern 1/3rd of the country by day 11. This cools temps in that part of the country to BELOW average for several days with the heat retrograding to the West, spilling out to the N.Plains.
(The automated NWS 8-14 day is out to lunch today and too hot in the areas in blue below.
These are the coolest days Fri-Sun July 11-13th. This is the departure from average highs.
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By metmike - June 27, 2025, 8:16 a.m.
The last 0z European Ensemble model in purple, on the right was a whopping +5.6 CDDs vs the previous 0z run. NG prices have spiked higher overnight.
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Here was the just updated 12z EE model CDDs. -3 CDDs from the previous 0z run, 12 hours earlier but LOOK AT WEEK 2!!!! This run is 2.5 days later than the one above, there is a shift of 2.5 days to the left below.
1. The heat spike is MUCH EARLIER and more intense. However the the last 5 days are the complete opposite. On Friday, above they were going straight up, last 2 data points around 16.5. On Sunday, below they are crashing down last 2 data points 14.5.
Out to lunch in the East!!!
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
NG opened slightly lower and has been under selling pressure from the open -$580/contract now. This is because of the much cooler change described above. Weekly price below.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
Sunday night chart: 6:28 pm update: Remaining under pressure since the open!
0Z EE was an additional -2 CDDS vs the previous 12z run, so natural has been making new lows for the session overnight. Temps are almost down the green climatological average at the end of the period from the new pattern described above.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
The last 24 hours, including Friday morning after the overnight models got much hotter and prices soared higher on Friday. Giving up much of those gains overnight Sunday.
The EIA report for this Thursday, will NOT be robust like the previous 10+ reports. However, the market dialed in the much lower injection much earlier this months.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php
Natural gas prices continue to have one of their weakest days ever because of the weather pattern change in week 2 described above on Sunday.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
1. 1 day: Friday featured massive, buying from much hotter overnight weather models that accelerated after the even hotter midday model. That hit a top, where we opened close to Sunday evening. Since then we've been under tremendous waves of intensifying, aggressive selling pressure since the open Sunday evening(Just below the top red line which was Fridays high)
2. 1 week: Last weeks low for the new August contract is the bottom red line(put in just after the BEARISH EIA report on Thursday). Highs on Friday are the top red line. We opened close to the top last evening and now are already approaching last weeks lows. The lower prices the day before were from the previous JULY CONTRACT that was trading $2,000/contract LOWER than the current August contract. The straight up spike higher($2,000) was the rollover from the July to the August price for graphing purposes.
The NWS was much closer with their 8-14 day outlook today compared to yesterday being much too hot.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852
1. The heat ridge/dome backs up much farther west compared to last week. This was the last 500 mb map on July 15th from the last 0z EE. .........northwest flow in the Midwest which should feature active perturbations tracking around the periphery of the heat ridge in the Northern Rockies, then drop southeast and amplify in the positive tilted Great Lakes/Eastern Midwest to Western Gulf States trough.
2. The last 0z EE in purple on the right was another -3 CDDs vs the previous 12z. Spike higher in heat later this week, then MUCH cooler in week 2 but still above average overall for the country.
3. Also, not nearly as hot as last week Friday's forecast which caused nat gas to soar higher!
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The last 0z EE in purple on the right was another whopping -6 CDDs bearish. NG had a spike low on Tuesday of 3.3, down $4,500 for the week, with a decent $1,500 recovery which continued early last night until this solution came out and quickly took away half of those gains.
The EIA tomorrow could be pretty bullish and this huge, MUCH LESS HOT forecast has been traded all week so its hard to say how much lower we will go on even LESS HEAT right now but I would NOT be buying here on weather.
As we can see below, the LESS HOT part of the forecast is during the heat wave, not at the end.
We've now bounced back to unch from the spike down from this bearish EE, instead of continuing lower so, at least for the moment the market has exhausted the OVERNIGHT selling momentum/follow thru from FRESH bearish weather news several hours ago.
The large specs could decide to renew the selling shortly when we start the day session or they too could be sold out ahead of the EIA number on Thursday. We should also keep in mind that the much less hot changes below are only to INDIVIDUAL DAYS and not to a sudden, long lasting pattern change like we saw earlier in the week. The CDDs start to go up again at the end of week 2 and the market is now looking at week 3 for guidance on July temps impacting NG pricing.
This just out 6z GEFS was a whopping +7 CDDs(purple right) and ng is spiking a bit higher.
The last 12z EE reversed its previous much cooler solution and was +4 CDDs vs that prior 0z model run. The market, after spiking up and down overnight from individual solution had ZERO reaction, in fact it dropped a tad. Likely because we were already up almost $1,000/contract from the MUCH hotter 6z GEFS and this just shows the same thing.
EIA report at 9:30 am.
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
for week ending June 27, 2025 | Released: July 3, 2025 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: July 10, 2025
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (06/27/24) | 5-year average (2020-24) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 06/27/25 | 06/20/25 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 602 | 589 | 13 | 13 | 658 | -8.5 | 584 | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 688 | 665 | 23 | 23 | 776 | -11.3 | 678 | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 228 | 223 | 5 | 5 | 239 | -4.6 | 178 | 28.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 287 | 281 | 6 | 6 | 282 | 1.8 | 256 | 12.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 1,148 | 1,140 | 8 | 8 | 1,175 | -2.3 | 1,085 | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 342 | 352 | -10 | -10 | 327 | 4.6 | 311 | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 806 | 788 | 18 | 18 | 848 | -5.0 | 774 | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,953 | 2,898 | 55 | 55 | 3,129 | -5.6 | 2,780 | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working gas in storage was 2,953 Bcf as of Friday, June 27, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 55 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 176 Bcf less than last year at this time and 173 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,780 Bcf. At 2,953 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
The last 12z EE in purple was a whopping -6+ CDDs vs the previous 0z run.
This contributed to additional weakness in the price after the BEARISH reaction to the EIA report. We should note the trend for the last several days.
Not only is the trend up, we are hitting the highest numbers at the very end, suggesting major heat in week 3 which traders consider to be important right now.
August Nymex natural gas futures sank lower Thursday after a heavier-than-expected storage build pointed to solar and coal generation stealing market share from gas during last week’s record-breaking heat.
2+ days until the markets open again on Sunday Night and this can change a great deal before then.
This was the just updated NWS weeks 3-4 outlook. I agree with the widespread heat/temperatures but would add even more heat in the N.Plains/Upper Midwest. That would be bullish weather for the 2nd half of July because residential use of air conditioning will be ELEVATED, so the demand for electricity generated by burning natural gas will be much greater than average.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/
Before then:
The last 12z EE is in purple. The models all show major heat returning in week 2.
Very elevated during the 2nd half of week 2 which equates to well above average temperatures, during the hottest time of year.
The seasonal/climatological peak in temperatures is seen approaching with the dashed green line leveling off in mid July.
1. The last European Ensemble model was -4.4 CDDs LESS HOT! And instead of heat rapidly increasing at the end of the period, the heat is waning a bit as the dome/heat ridge retrogrades to a position much farther west.
2. Compare that to the Friday EE and the CDDs going straight up in week 2 with the heat ridge farther east and impacting more high population centers in the eastern half of the country.
3. Upper level map in 2 weeks, on july 20th. Upper level ridge centered in the S.Rockies. Very weak troughing in the Great Lakes/Northeast.
NG was under pressure all night, after the gap lower Sunday Night which was actually surprising to me considering how much heat we still have in the July forecast(I was almost long over the weekend which would have lost a bunch of money).
The forecast DID turn LESS hot on Sunday but its still pretty hot.
At around 6am, the market took off like a rocket (probably the large specs entering) and we are up almost $2,000 from the lows and put in a gap and crap chart formation which is a selling exhaustion signature and very bullish.
https://www.tradingsim.com/day-trading/exhaustion-gap
This puts in an extremely bearish, gap and crap technical formation............in a condensed, extremely volatile short term time frame that is different that most gap and craps that occur from a buying exhaustion at the top of a long uptrend.(which marks the end of the bullish mentality).
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GapandCrap buying(selling) exhaustion formation
1 response |
Started by metmike - Aug. 30, 2019, 6:12 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/38044/
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Island Reversal – Reversal Candlestick Pattern
https://www.tradingsim.com/blog/island-reversal
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7-7-25 charts:
1. 1 day: Gap and crap. This chart does not show the gap lower open last night properly but we are now clearly ABOVE the close on Friday.
2. 1 week: Double bottom
3. 1 month: Decisive top in June with 3 selling waves lower(bear flags). This last one has triggered a selling exhaustion signal with the reversal up after a gap lower that was filled.
4. 1 year: Head and shoulders top in the Spring. Bull flag currently. Symmetrical wedge.
5. 10 years: Major support tested last year with a triple bottom. Last Winters cold drained storage and resulted in a new uptrend that was tested recently. This was after the June spike higher from the pattern change to hot tested the downtrend line. So we have a very impressive SYMMETRICAL WEDGE from lower highs and higher lows.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
https://itez.com/en/blog/education/lower-highs-higher-lows-trading-guide
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7-7-25 continued: The last 0z EE was actually a tad bearish compared to the previous run and definitely compared to last Friday.
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Seasonals also turn positive here:
https://charts.equityclock.com/natural-gas-futures-ng-seasonal-chart
Days 9-12 were much cooler in the middle of the country on this last 12z EE(from a stronger cold front) which caused nat gas to sell off back to around unchanged but still well above the open last night and above the top of the gap lower, so the gap and crap chart formation is still valid.........for now.
U.S. Natural Gas Power Burns Stumble for First Time in Four Years
Natural gas-fired electricity generation declined in the opening half of 2025 for the first time since 2021, falling 1.8% year/year as higher prices and increased competition from other generation undercut demand.
Less heat in the forecasts and no follow thru after yesterday’s powerful selling exhaustion formation.
the last 2 runs of the GEFS were -4 CDDs compared to the previous 2 runs, although the EE is close to the same.