The death toll includes:
68 deaths in Kerr County
NWS Fort Worth/Dallas
Turn Around, Don't Drown!
¡Dé la vuelta, no se ahogue!
Continued showers and storms will lead to 1 to 3 inches of additional rainfall for areas generally south of I-20 and west of I-35 in Central Texas, where a Flood Watch remains in effect through 7 PM Sunday. There is a 10% chance of higher amounts up to 6 inches. Remember, Turn Around, Don't Drown! Use extra caution at low water crossings & poor drainage areas and NEVER drive through barricades.
Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Current Hazards at the link below.
For your NWS and county, go to the link below.
Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county.
Here's what the colors on the map above stand for:
All the weather here:
July 06, 2025
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/
This blog discusses current weather, weather prediction, climate issues, and current events
On Friday morning, heavy rains led to catastrophic flooding along the Guadalupe River in central Texas.
Tragically, it appears that at least fifty people lost their lives.
But what is particularly disturbing is that the National Weather Service (NWS) provided excellent warnings and forecasts before the event that clearly predicted a substantial threat.
And yet, no attempt at evacuation was made.
Furthermore, weather model forecasts indicated the potential for a major precipitation event over this historically flood-prone region during the prior days.
The Event
The flooding occurred around 4 AM on July 4.
A heavy precipitation event was forecast for the region during the previous days. For example, the NOAA/NWS HRRR forecast from 8 PM July 3 (the evening before) predicted a band of heavy rain over central Texas.
THE DAY BEFORE, the NWS Forecast Office in San Antonia put out a flood watch for central Texas Hill Country, which included the site of the tragedy.
During the subsequent hours, the National Weather Service communicated increasingly strong warnings, including flash flood warnings. A children's camp on a floodplain should have been evacuated.
Here is the warning by the local NWS office several hours before the flood.
Also consider the warning by the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (WPC) before the event:
As the event got closer, with National Weather Service radar showing the event unfolding, the San Antonia office made the threat explicit, noting a very dangerous flash event.
Any media or other organization suggesting that the National Weather Service was not on top of this event is not only not telling the truth, but doing a deep disservice to the highly professional and skillful folks in that organization.
Some folks are making such suggestions for patently political reasons. Extraordinarily unethical and wrong.
Areas along the Guadalupe River have flooded catastrophically many times in the past, and not evacuating low-lying areas with such warnings verges on criminal neglect. The local county (Kerr) does not even have a flood warning system in place.
The Texas flooding is another example of large numbers of deaths, even when weather forecasts are excellent, with all too many other examples, including the Maui wildfires, the LA wildfires, and flooding from Hurricane Helene.
But if you really want to experience media and advocacy group loss of moral compass, consider those claiming this event is the result of global warming.
For example, this connection was suggested by the New York Times:
There is NO EVIDENCE that the central Texas floods are the result of climate change.
For example, the Environmental Protection Agency has noted that flooding is DECLINING over time in that region (see below)
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I examined this issue myself. Below is a plot of the extreme daily precipitation in July for nearby San Antonio from the 1940s to today.
There is NO upward trend, which suggests that climate change is not a factor in this event.
If climate change was significant, there WOULD be an upward trend.
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In summary, society needs to learn how to effectively use the greatly improved prediction and observational capabilities that now exist.
Most weather-related deaths can be prevented if society makes use of this valuable information.
Those using disasters to support their political and social change agendas are not only hurting those they wish to help, but acting in a morally and ethically indefensible way.
It really boils down to this, once again(Cliff Mass can be counted on as an elite source for using objective, authentic science)
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-golden-rule-of-climate-extremes.html
The GoldenRule
Considering the substantial confusion in the media about this critical issue, let me provide the GOLDENRULE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES. Here it is:
The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability.
Or to put it a different way, the larger or more unusual an extreme, the higher proportion of the extreme is due to natural variability.
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The NWS did an OUTSTANDING JOB!!!!!
Those trying to blame them and cuts by the Trump administration are pathetic.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/05/climate/texas-flooding-forecast-response
"This particular population is inundated with weather watches and warnings all times of day and night; in Texas Hill Country, where flash flooding is triggered frequently by summertime thunderstorms, warning fatigue can settle in."
In other words, the NWS does their job TOO WELL on a regular basis and people, instead of taking responsibility for their own safety, just assumed/hoped the weather service would be wrong this time or that it wouldn't be that extreme because it never did this before in this spot.
This is what extreme weather has done since the earth has had an atmosphere.
I'm sorry but this is just too irresponsible for people in that location. If I had a kid camping that night I would have insisted that safety comes ahead of fun. They didn't have one responsible person watching the weather well ahead of this event that told everybody.............hey, we better all get the heck out of here????
That's all it would have taken and they didn't need to be a meteorologist. Just a person with common sense following the weather in an extremely high risk area during a well warned for event.
What do they think a flash flood watch means???
Go camping in a low lying area that has a long history of major flash flooding????
The adults deciding to IGNORE the NWS watches and warnings and to camp anyways are ALL RESPONSIBLE for those deaths!
I sympathize with their devastating losses but when people do really dumb things and pay a price for bad judgment its bs to blame anybody but themselves.
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Let's use this event to LEARN something. Adults MUST take personal responsibility to use easy to access information for everybody to stay informed about life threatening weather events like this.
Thanks, Mike! Very sad.
It isn’t TX, but I did want to mention that parts of central NC are currently experiencing flash flooding from very wet and pretty slow moving remnants of TS Chantal. There are many areas there currently under FF warnings, especially W of the Fayetteville to Raleigh corridor. I read that done areas have already gotten 8-10”!
An initial flood watch — which generally urges residents to be weather-aware — was issued by the local National Weather Service office at 1:18 p.m. Thursday.
It predicted between 5 to 7 inches (12.7 to 17.8 centimeters) of rain. Weather messaging from the office, including automated alerts delivered to mobile phones to people in threatened areas, grew increasingly ominous in the early morning hours of Friday, urging people to move to higher ground and evacuate flood-prone areas, said Jason Runyen, a meteorologist in the National Weather Service office.
At 4:03 a.m., the office issued an urgent warning that raised the potential of catastrophic damage and a severe threat to human life.
Jonathan Porter, the chief meteorologist at AccuWeather, a private weather forecasting company that uses National Weather Service data, said it appeared evacuations and other proactive measures could have been undertaken to reduce the risk of fatalities.
“People, businesses, and governments should take action based on Flash Flood Warnings that are issued, regardless of the rainfall amounts that have occurred or are forecast,” Porter said in a statement.
Weather service had extra staffers
The National Weather Service office in New Braunfels, which delivers forecasts for Austin, San Antonio and the surrounding areas, had extra staff on duty during the storms, Runyen said.
Where the office would typically have two forecasters on duty during clear weather, they had up to five on staff.
“There were extra people in here that night, and that’s typical in every weather service office — you staff up for an event and bring people in on overtime and hold people over,” Runyen said.
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The NWS did an outstanding job!!!
THESE ARE THE PEOPLE TO BLAME BELOW!!!!!
Local officials have said they had not expected such an intense downpour that was the equivalent of months’ worth of rain for the area.
“We know we get rains. We know the river rises,” said Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, the county’s top elected official. “But nobody saw this coming.”
Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said he was jogging along the river early in the morning and didn’t notice any problems at 4 a.m. A little over an hour later, at 5:20 a.m., the water level had risen dramatically and “we almost weren’t able to get out of the park,” he said.
Rice also noted that the public can become desensitized to too many weather warnings.
Kelly said the county considered a flood warning system along the river that would have functioned like a tornado warning siren about six or seven years ago, before he was elected, but that the idea never got off the ground because of the expense.
“We’ve looked into it before … The public reeled at the cost,” Kelly said.
He said he didn’t know what kind of safety and evacuation plans the camps may have had.
“What I do know is the flood hit the camp first, and it came in the middle of the night. I don’t know where the kids were,” he said. “I don’t know what kind of alarm systems they had. That will come out in time.”
U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem said Saturday it was difficult for forecasters to predict just how much rain would fall. She said the Trump administration would make it a priority to upgrade National Weather Service technology used to deliver warnings.
“We know that everyone wants more warning time, and that’s why we’re working to upgrade the technology that’s been neglected for far too long to make sure families have as much advance notice as possible,” Noem said during a press conference with state and federal leaders.
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Many, many dishonest sources are blaming the cuts to the NWS and climate change, motivated in many cases by their agenda or ignorance or for other nefarious reasons, while letting the real people responsible off the hook for their blatant negligence.
I realize that I'm in a unique group of super weather informed people but if my kid was camping on the river, I would have gone down there, many hours before the main event hit and yelled my head off, driving along the river telling anybody that could hear to get the heck out of there.
That's exactly what saved the lives of the ones who left in time!!!!!!
I am shocked that so many people completely ignored the watches and warnings that would have saved them!
This is so heart breaking but was preventable.
Thanks, Larry!
I was out of town for our grandson's basketball tournament in Louisville and am catching up, thanks for assisting!
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents
Current Hazards at the link below.
For your NWS and county, go to the link below.
Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county.
Here's what the colors on the map above stand for:
CNN keeps repeating today that the funding cuts by DOGE played a role in this but they are DEAD WRONG!
However, they had a meteorologist from Accu-Weather, Geoff Cornish on several minutes ago. I hope I can find the interview on the internet because this guy was the best I've seen in explaining the dynamics of the storm, the warnings and actions that should have taken place by people in the path of the flooding.
This is incredible!
Timelapse video shows speed of floodwater rising in Texas
https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/06/us/video/timelapse-kingsland-texas-river-floodwater-levels-digvid
Video: House in Texas floats down river during flash flooding
https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/06/us/video/destroyed-house-floating-texas-floods-digvid
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I feel horrible that this happened and have great empathy for the losses suffered by so many families and the community but that doesn't mean we should not hold people accountable for being dumb or them placing a higher priority on having fun or saving money just because they are suffering the consequences for their really poor judgment.
We should LEARN from this and use it for precedent in communities that want to fund a similar warning system that would have saved so many lives this time.
Added: This should not have happened. As an operational meteorologist for over 43 years, I can't see how the NWS could have done anything better than they did. They should be getting awards for the timely watch, warnings, emergency and constantly updates statements that were issued BEFORE the event and which gave everybody that should have been paying attention, plenty of opportunity to go to higher ground to save the lives that were lost from ignoring the NWS or not using them responsibly for the high risk that was well advertised and warned for in advance.
This is "flash flood alley" for Pete's sake! It was insane to camp on the river during a flash flood watch with clearly stated, high risk verbiage from the NWS THE DAY BEFORE!!!!! The NWS called in some extra people to make sure they were at the top of their game during this event...........and they were at the top of their game!
Then, when the event was unfolding even WORSE than expected, the NWS provided timely updates about how bad it was that STILL GAVE THEM TIME TO LEAVE.
But they didn't.
It's an outrage that any entities would try to put the blame on the NWS or climate change.
How remnants of Tropical Storm Barry are to blame for Texas floods
The tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, combined with a stationary storm complex (which provided the lift) that was already sitting over Texas, resulted in slow-moving heavy downpours that produced prolific rainfall totals over a short period of time.
https://time.com/7300660/what-caused-deadly-texas-floods/
Simonovic says that it’s imperative that we begin to acknowledge that the realities of climate change are already here—and better plan to adapt to it. “Things are changing, but also things changed. Losing 80 lives in Texas in the middle of 2025, it's really hard to accept. We have to be prepared, and prevent this from occurring more often.”
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This is Time magazine! So sad when they want to put the blame on climate change instead of THE REAL REASON.
I just listened to NPR n my car radio. They are putting the blame on the NWS because of DOGE cuts..........a blatant lie.
Using this disaster to push their political agenda.
I'll go ahead and send out a message that contradicts the propaganda and lies.
They normally have 2 meteorologists on duty but boosted the staff to 5 meteorologists for this potential event in order to do the best job possible using modern technology and trained meteorologists analyzing the data and issuing watches, warnings and constant updates BEFORE and during the event.
They were flawless from everything that I looked at.
/ CBS/AP
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-floods-deaths-no-warning-what-to-know/
"After a flood watch notice midday Thursday"
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What responsible adults would take kids camping on the banks of a river in Flash Flood Alley" after a flash flood watch is issued by the National Weather Service for the high potential for flash flooding exactly where they are!!!!
Stop blaming the NWS and climate change.
Local government that decided to save money by not installing warning sirens can be blamed but the adults running this camp and their parents completely ignored all the warnings. As well as all the other people that decided that having fun over the holiday weekend would trump these risks.
The ones that are alive were the ones that left or canceled their plans because they used their brains and critical thinking. Stop protecting people because of their devastating losses. These losses were really sad and we have empathy for them but no lessons will be learned by blaming the NWS (that did a stellar job) or climate change for an event that would have been almost the same without climate change.
When there's a warning for a major hurricane to hit your area, you don't camp on the beach.......you go inland to a safer spot.
When there is an especially high risk for violent tornadoes and a tornado warning is issued for your county...........you don't go to the grocery store in the middle of the tornado warning........you go to your safe place, like your basement.
When there is a high risk for flash flooding for your area and that information is out there FOR EVERYBODY............you don't camp on a river bank of a low lying area in "flash flood alley".
“Flash Flood Alley” has a long and tragic history of major flooding events.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/history-flash-flood-alley-hilly-region-texas-prone/story?id=123531672
Texas Hill Country is often colloquially referred to as "Flash Flood Alley" because the weather and landscape in the south-central Texas region work together to produce rapid flood events, according to the Texas Water Resources Institute (TWRI).
Flash Flood Alley is known as one of the most flood-prone regions in the U.S. due to its high susceptibility to flash flooding with steep terrain, shallow soil and repeated high rainfall events.
“Flash Flood Alley” has a long and tragic history of major flooding events along the Guadalupe River and other nearby rivers. The river has flooded nearly once every decade over the past 100 years, Martinez said.
The remnants of a hurricane that made landfall over eastern Mexico brought extreme rainfall to south central Texas from Sept. 8 to Sept. 10, 1921, including San Antonio and Austin.
An estimated 40 inches of rain fell near Thrall, Texas, with around 19 inches falling in Austin and 15 inches in San Antonio, according to the NWS. The flooding killed 215 people, including 159 along the Little and San Gabriel Rivers and 51 in San Antonio.
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In 1921, climate change had nothing to do with the flood with even MORE rain then. In 1921, those people had no technology and no clue that such an event was going to hit but this is 2025. We can assume that almost everybody camping in flash flood alley when this flood hit had access to the information that they failed to use/ignored.
The potential consequences of completely ignoring clear, well defined statements that tell you to NOT do something can be catastrophic.
Thursday, July 3rd:
At 8:47 a.m. Texas Division of Emergency Management posted on X weather guidance in both English and Spanish, informing followers about what to do in a flood, adding: "As we head into the holiday weekend and the flood threat in West & Central TX continues, stay weather aware!"
At some point in the morning, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick later said at a press conference, the TDEM Region 6 Assistance Chief had "personally contacted the judges and mayors in that area and notified them all of potential flooding." He said it was unclear exactly where in the region the storm would hit.
"The message was sent," Patrick said, "It is up to the local counties and mayors under the law to evacuate, if they feel a need. That information was passed along."
At 1:18 p.m., the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio issued a flood watch, saying "local heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding." At 2:35 p.m. the flood watch was announced on X, saying "pockets of heavy rain are expected and may result in flooding." A flood watch is used when the weather conditions make a flood possible but it does not mean a flood will occur.
At 6:10 p.m., the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center issued an assessment for Texas Hill Country about "heavy rainfall," mentioning "flash flooding likely."
At 11:41 p.m., the National Weather Service office in Austin/San Antonio posted a flash flood warning.
At 11:42 p.m., the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio posted on X upgrading its flood watch to a flood warning for part of the impacted area. In a post from 1:14 a.m. on Friday, that area was expanded. A flood warning occurs when flooding is imminent or already happening.
Friday, July 4th:
At 12:26 a.m., the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center said "flash flooding likely overnight with significant impacts possible." This message was posted on X a minute later.
The National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio followed up its warning from 11:41 p.m. Thursday with another flash flood warning at 1:14 a.m. Friday. Another 14 flash flood warnings, which are posted on the NWS website and elsewhere, would come between then and 10:46 a.m.
At 3:06 a.m. the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio posted on X: "A very dangerous flash flooding event is ongoing." It ended: "Turn Around, Don't Drown!"
Around 3:30 a.m. the Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said he was out for an early morning jog along the Guadalupe River and saw "not a drop of rain," according to Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who recounted his conversation with the city manager. Rice added that he left around 4 a.m. when "there was very light rain…We did not see any signs of the river rising at that time."
Then, at 4:15 a.m. the National Weather Service San Angelo posted on X that there was a flash flood emergency. The Austin/San Antonio office posted on its X account about the emergency at 4:23 a.m. This type of alert is "exceedingly rare" and used when there is a "severe threat to human life and catastrophic damage," according to the National Weather Service.
Between 4 a.m. and 6 a.m., the Guadalupe River surged, with water levels rapidly rising as much as 30 feet, according to Rep. Roy. Local TV footage showed the empty foundations of houses, where everything else had been swept away.
Kerrville City Manager Rice said he started getting calls around 5 a.m. about the flooding. He said upstream of the city two branches converge into the Guadalupe River and that both forks had received more rain than expected. "It was about seven feet or so on the south fork, and within a matter of minutes, it was up to 29 feet," Rice recounted later on Friday.
After the 1987 flood, alarms were installed along the river. However, Rice said that he believes those are south of Kerrville. "There [are] not alarms everywhere on the river," he said.
He added that it is a very hard decision when to issue evacuation orders. "There's a balance between do you evacuate and put chaos on the road and potentially risk people getting stuck on a road? This is hill country…There's a lot of low water crossings," he said. "A lot of our operations plans — especially with these camps, that is — the plan is sometimes shelter in place to get them to those known high grounds and then wait for rescue."
At 5:16 a.m., the City of Kerrville's Police Department posted on its Facebook page its first warning about the weather, noting that it's a "life threatening event" and "anyone near the Guadalupe River needs to move to higher ground now." Kerr County Sheriff posted on its Facebook page for the first time about the flooding at 5:32 a.m.
At 6:22 a.m., the City Hall of Kerrville posted on Facebook: "Much needed rain swept through Kerrville overnight, but the downside is the severe weather may impact many of today's scheduled July 4th events. Citizens are encouraged to exercise caution when driving and avoid low water crossings. Kerrville Police and Fire Department personnel are currently assessing emergency needs." At 6:33 a.m. it posted about road closures due to flooding. At 7:32 a.m. it posted: "If you live along the Guadalupe River, please move to higher ground immediately."
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The jaw dropping irresponsible, criminal neglect by officials for not passing on this information and taking the actions they are paid to do(it's the most important part of their jobs) is going to result in countless multi million dollar lawsuits from the families that lost lives.
They should be fired or resign immediately for acting this way. What the heck were they thinking??? Maybe because it was a holiday weekend and they didn't want to disrupt activities and look bad IF nothing happened???
This message takes the cake and demonstrates the complete ignorance from these people about knowing what was going on and passing on bogus messages, even after many people were dying in the flash flood: "At 6:22 a.m., the City Hall of Kerrville posted on Facebook: "Much needed rain swept through Kerrville overnight, but the downside is the severe weather may impact many of today's scheduled July 4th events. Citizens are encouraged to exercise caution when driving and avoid low water crossings."
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Monday morning quarterbacking is easy but what should have happened is that ALL these officials, knowing this is "Flash Flood Alley" should have passed on the strongly worded messaging ON THURSDAY about the potential for a life threatening flash flood event early Friday morning.
They should have recommended that people consider cancelling their fun camping trips along the river and if choosing to stay, they should have insisted that every group/person staying along the river have at least 1 person monitoring the latest weather information and warnings overnight.
If no flooding occurred, the worst that happens is that several people missed out on some sleep. If this happens, those people save the lives of dozens of people that died.
Why don't they interview more people that were smart and cancelled their camping or got the warnings and left in plenty of time. How did they know?
The NWS did a stellar job to make sure the information was there FOR EVERYBODY.
We have the technology to save almost all of these lives and used it.....but then key players failed catastrophically to pass it on or use it properly. For some of them, it defined the most important part of the job they were being paid to do.
Their brains must have been in July 4th vacation mode. I realize that the odds of this happening were pretty low but responsible adults don't put thousands of people in unnecessary, life threatening harms way of a well defined high risk because they are playing the odds of it not happening.
Again, this is "Flash Flood Alley"an extraordinarily unique place. Most people not familiar with it, don't appreciate it for the enormously favorable dynamics for this exact thing to happen. That's exactly why they blundered so badly. Pretending to be surprised and caught off guard is bs and no excuse for the locals.
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It's not even their job to assess how high the weather risk is and make decisions on what they think might happen based on recent history. That's the job of the NWS. Their job is to PASS ON all of that information ASAP so that everybody in the path of the deadly weather event is informed and prepared BEFORE IT HAPPENS!
Let's repeat that:
Their job is to PASS ON all that information ASAP so that everybody in the path of the deadly weather event is informed and prepared BEFORE IT HAPPENS!
Four of the worst floods in recent Guadalupe River history have occurred in July.
Flooding struck again in early July 2002, when Kerrville recorded 19 inches of rain, making it the city’s wettest month since August 1978. Between Kerrville, Center Point and Comfort, an astonishing 40 to 50 inches of rain were reported.
Texas leads the nation in flood-related deaths by a significant margin. Between 1959 and 2019, at least 1,069 people died in floods across the state. A large share of those fatalities occurred in the Hill Country, a region grimly nicknamed “Flash Flood Alley” for good reason.
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This is exactly why officials (and people living in the area) are guilty of criminal negligence/ignorance for not heeding the NWS watches, warnings, advisories, and prior statements that made it critical for everybody in the high risk zone to stay closely connected to the latest weather information.
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These sources pretend like they care about the NWS........and demonstrate it by throwing them under the bus, blaming them for not doing their jobs when they did the best any of us could expect.
Again, in looking at the conditions and what happened, then matching it up with their watch, warnings, advisories and updates, I couldn't have done a better job. Nor could have other meteorologists or more meteorologists in the office at the same time.
There 3 words apply and explain the plunging line on the graph below.
1. TECHNOLOGY!
2. Communication!
3. ADAPTATION!
1. The NWS has saved, maybe 100,000+ lives the past century using high technology and timely communication of the threat information. They maximized the use of those same tools to do an outstanding job this time.
2. However, some of the officials and people in Texas were behaving more like it was 1925 instead of 2025.
3. Not just sorely lacking in communicating the danger to those along the river that night but failing to install sirens to warn people along the river which would have been a wonderful way to save lives with adaptation. This was proposed in 2017 but they didn't want to spend the money.
It's nuts that so many sources are using this event for their political agenda instead of to identify the REAL reason to learn lessons. What are those lessons?
4. Spend the money for sirens in high risk areas. What did they spend the money on instead, that was worth more than this???
5.. Use the weather and warning information that we all have at our fingertips on our phones.
6. Local officials knew how to communicate messages to the public but they failed to send the right messages. Amazing how incompetent and misleading some of the messages were. These people need to be trained so that they consistently send out the right messaging on severe weather that is not only useful informative but in some cases results in actions that are sometimes not popular.
7. Unfortunately, this is such an extraordinarily unique situation because the terrain in this location does not exist at other places, that lessons learned here will be tough to apply elsewhere but still, hopefully they can be.
8. In retrospect, it appears that their judgement was clouded because this was the biggest weekend of the year for fun (AND TOURISM INCOME) for their community. The one that brings the most tourists in from out of town(my oldest son went rafting at this exact spot over a decade ago). A huge weekend along this incredible river that provides so much enjoyment to the people of this community and especially for tourism which is a key source of income for them. No way were they going to make very unpopular calls that interfered with that fun and such a major source of income(tourism) for that community. Or send out messages that would cause many people TO CANCEL or to leave before the fun activities took place.
The compelling evidence shows: Tourism took priority over life saving by local officials.
This message, which came out in the middle of people being swept away and dying/drowning speaks volumes for the mentality of some officials that were responsible for the safety of these people: "At 6:22 a.m., the City Hall of Kerrville posted on Facebook: "Much needed rain swept through Kerrville overnight, but the downside is the severe weather may impact many of today's scheduled July 4th events. Citizens are encouraged to exercise caution when driving and avoid low water crossings."
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/113021/#113054
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guadalupe_River_(Texas)
For other uses, see Guadalupe River.
| Guadalupe River Río Guadalupe | |
|---|---|
 A bluff at Guadalupe River State Park | |
 Map of the Guadalupe River watershed | |
The Guadalupe River (/ˌɡwɑːdəˈlup/;[4] Spanish pronunciation: [gwaðaˈlupe]) runs from Kerr County, Texas, to San Antonio Bay on the Gulf Coast. It is a popular destination for rafting, fly fishing, and canoeing. Larger cities along it include Kerrville, New Braunfels, Seguin, Gonzales, Cuero, and Victoria. It has several dams along its length, the most notable of which, Canyon Dam, forms Canyon Lake northwest of New Braunfels.
The river, and the larger area around it known as Texas Hill Country, is prone to flash flooding. Its nickname is Flash Flood Alley.
In the heart of Texas Hill Country lies the charming city of Kerrville, where the rolling hills meet the tranquil Guadalupe River, and the spirit of hospitality runs deep. It’s a place where visitors are welcomed with open arms, and the local economy thrives on the bustling tourism industry. But behind the scenes, there’s a lesser-known hero at work: the Hotel Occupancy Tax (HOT). In this blog post, we’ll explore the role of HOT in supporting economic development in Kerrville and how tourism positively impacts the local economy.
Now, let’s talk about the elephant in the room: tourism. It’s no secret that Kerrville is a top destination for travelers seeking adventure, relaxation, and the beauty of Texas Hill Country.
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https://www.kerrvilletx.gov/1472/Attractions
https://www.kerrvilletexascvb.com/
https://www.tourtexas.com/destinations/kerrville-things-to-do
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https://www.tripadvisor.com/Attractions-g56079-Activities-Kerrville_Texas.html
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https://www.kerrvilletx.gov/809/4th-on-the-River
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Kerrville’s 4th on the River has become the highest attended FREE concert in the state of Texas, celebrating American Independence. Since 2010, event organizers have worked to create a family-friendly, hometown, 4th of July celebration with the largest fireworks display in the Hill Country as the finale!
https://www.htrresorts.com/events/kerrvilles-4th-on-the-river-festival/
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https://www.kerrvilletexascvb.com/events/2025/kerrvilles-4th-on-the-river
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Kerrville took this page down:
https://www.kerrvilletx.gov/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=3428
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https://jambroadcasting.com/celebrate-independence-day-at-kerrvilles-fourth-on-the-river-event/
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https://www.hccommunityjournal.com/news/article_d61bf0d3-a29f-4eae-a7e1-0079c5940ecd.html
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dpseSotnro4a16la ua34ug:hAmJ029a4102telfM18l0a8t ma 198 n6f9 · Fourth of July weekend is almost here, and these are the moments we live for. 
Relaxing in the Guadalupe River, exploring our city’s historic charm, and soaking up all the little moments with our favorite people.
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It was heartbreaking for me to post this last page. To the point of tears with that last one above
I feel so bad that this happened. Please don't misinterpret my objective here.
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Floods in Kerrville force evacuations and transform July 4th festivities into emergency relief efforts as community rallies to support each other amid devastation.
KERRVILLE, Texas — What was supposed to be a weekend of celebration and unity in Kerrville has transformed into a scene of survival and heartbreak. Devastating floods have torn through the city, sweeping away homes, campsites and a sense of safety for many residents.
For some, what began as a fun-filled Fourth of July weekend has now become a fight to stay alive.
Over the past 24 hours, Arcadia Live has taken on a new role, coordinating donations, offering food, clothing, and most importantly, providing a place for evacuees to find comfort in the chaos.
For many residents, the morning of the flood felt like a nightmare. As the river rose and power lines snapped, evacuations were necessary — some by boat, others by navigating live power lines and rising floodwaters.
Zerick Baldwin, a Kerrville resident, had made plans to stay the night at a campsite at Flat Rock Park along the Guadalupe River. But a last-minute decision to leave, he said, might have saved his life.
"I told my family I was going to stay the night and fish, but if I would’ve slept in my truck or something, I would have been gone,” Baldwin said. “The waters came so quickly. If I had stayed, I wouldn’t have even known what hit.”
Baldwin had originally planned to attend the city’s July 4th celebration, even seeing the stage, bar, and festive signs set up Thursday. By Friday morning, all of it was wiped away without a trace, swallowed by the floodwaters.
“Yesterday they had everything set up — the stage, the food trucks. Now there’s not even a sign that it was there.”
Excellent video and explanation that clearly explains why/how the hill country of TX has the ideal landscape for flash flooding....which is why its "Flash Flood Alley"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTICaCbpPD0
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Really excellent meteorological discussion:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1zoMNabewI
This last one was so good that I had to watch it a 2nd time.
I hope to have more of this guy's outstanding weather discussions here in the future!
Emergency officials are starting to focus on alert systems as they search for answers about how the flash flooding swept away so many.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/deadly-texas-floods-one-town-warning-siren-rcna217202
Some Texas officials have blamed the National Weather Service, arguing it didn’t do a good enough job forecasting rainfall and issuing timely flood warnings. But some independent meteorologists and a former weather service official told NBC News that the agency performed as well as it could given the unpredictability of rain and flash flooding and the timing of the disaster.
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This independent meteorologist KNOWS how well the NWS did during this event. Many of those same TX officials blaming the NWS were the ones that caused it. They wouldn't spend the money for an alarm system that would have saved many to most of their lives.
Worst of all, they were most concerned with the profits and fun of their Independence Day Holiday Weekend and placed that OVER the safety of people camping on the river. Intentionally choosing to not pass on key NWS strongly worded bulletins that were sent to these officials to be passed on to the public but they failed catastrophically to do their jobs.
If these officials had passed this on.............guess what? Many hundreds to thousands of people would have either cancelled out that night or been more prepared to evacuate.
They could have spend $20,000 to buy an alarm system to save these lives.
Now, they will pay way more than $20,000,000 for lawsuits that they will lose for intentionally putting their profits and festival celebration ahead of the safety of all these people. All these losses in lives that can never be replaced on top of the bankrupting losses coming from lawsuits.......because they put money ahead of safety.
Blaming the NWS or climate change when they had the means AND RESPONSIBILITY to do the right thing to adapt to the extremely high risk of flash flood alley so that people in their country would be protected.
"There should have been sirens here," said Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/hard-hit-texas-county-flood-warning-sirens-despite/story?id=123531823
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Former commissioner of flooded Texas county says siren system would have saved lives
Updated July 9, 2025
https://www.npr.org/2025/07/09/nx-s1-5461143/texas-floods-kerr-siren-warning-system
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By metmike - July 7, 2025, 5:09 p.m.
Federal forecasters issued their first flood warning at 1:14 a.m. on July 4. Local officials haven’t shed light on when they saw the warnings or whether they saw them in time to take action.
https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/08/texas-weather-service-warning-kerr-county/
The weather service on Thursday afternoon put out a flood watch, which is a specific threat designation that means the conditions are present for a flood to happen.
“That far ahead of an event like this, that’s the most you can do,” said Bob Henson, a meteorologist and journalist with Yale Climate Connections.
And the agency issued increasingly urgent warnings through the night, which should have given most people enough time to escape death if they received and understood them, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources.
At a news conference on Friday as the death toll rose, Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly said, “We didn’t know this flood was coming.”
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Wrong!
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/10/us/texas-flood-local-response.html
Flash floods surged through in the middle of the night, but many local officials appeared unaware of the unfolding catastrophe , initially leaving people near the river on their own.
In the first three hours after the National Weather Service sent out an alert at 1:14 a.m. on July 4, warning of “life-threatening flash flooding” near Kerrville, Texas, the Guadalupe River would rise 20 feet. Yet local leaders would remain largely unheard from, raising questions about both local preparedness and whether the state of Texas should be doing more to notify flood-prone rural counties when they are in danger.
Yet even as these dramas were unfolding, many of the key local leaders in Kerr County were still asleep or had not been alerted to the danger. The survival of people in local camps and low-lying areas in many cases depended not on official evacuations, but on whether they were paying attention, on their own, to weather alerts in the middle of the night.
After the flood alert shortly after 1 a.m., the National Weather Service went on to put out a series of warnings of mounting intensity, with one at 4:03 a.m. warning of “catastrophic” flooding.
“This came at night when people were asleep, in bed,” Kerrville’s mayor, Joe Herring Jr., said at a news conference. He later told CNN that he had not received the weather alert and was not awakened until 5:30 a.m.
Sheriff Larry Leitha of Kerr County said he had first been notified around 4 or 5 a.m., when “one of my sergeants was in dispatch when the first calls started coming in.”
https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/10/us/kerr-country-officials-response-texas-flooding
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No explanations because nobody did anything. It would have take just 1 RESPONSIBLE local official to appreciate the gravity of the situation but ALL OF THEM were in July 4th weekend, Chamber of Commerce fun and profits mode and decided to ignore anything that might interfere with that.
This post, 5 hours after the first warning came out(and while people were drowning and dying) is mind boggling, criminal neglect of responsibility.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Texas Floods
By metmike - July 7, 2025, 8:59 p.m.
"At 6:22 a.m., the City Hall of Kerrville posted on Facebook: "Much needed rain swept through Kerrville overnight, but the downside is the severe weather may impact many of today's scheduled July 4th events. Citizens are encouraged to exercise caution when driving and avoid low water crossings. Kerrville Police and Fire Department personnel are currently assessing emergency needs." At 6:33 a.m. it posted about road closures due to flooding. At 7:32 a.m. it posted: "If you live along the Guadalupe River, please move to higher ground immediately."
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In 4+ decades of being an operational meteorologist, I've observed some of the greatest advances in technology, led by the NWS that has saved tens of thousands of lives just during that time. That technology was available here in several forms.
1. Passing on the NWS information the day before would have saved lives.
2. Passing on the warnings 3 hours before the high impact flood hit would have saved lives.
3. Installing sirens, instead of saving $XX,XXX would have saved lives
4. This is Flash Flood Alley! What place anywhere has more justification to spend $XX,XXX to alert people to seek higher ground in a flash flood warning???
It's incredulous that ALL the local officials in this location colluded to put their July 4th festivities ahead of the safety of the people. Again, this was and is FLASH FLOOD ALLEY. They live there. They must have known the long history of flash flooding. There is no way to pretend otherwise. They encouraged thousands of people to camp on their river in Flash Flood Alley with a high risk of flash flooding and went to bed for the night to rest up for the big festivities the next day. ALL OF THEM decided to get a good nights rest.
Ironically, the numerous justified lawsuits will bankrupt the county and wreck its reputation forever.
Instead of being known for its beauty and many wonderful activities, especially on the river they will be MOST remembered in history at the top of the Hall of Shame for what they just caused to happen.
Not sure if some of these officials can be criminally prosecuted and go to jail or be held personally for what they just did but they should be because of the enormity of the damage that some of them HAD TO HAVE KNOWN ABOUT before hand because the local NWS guru's met with local officials the day before to get them up to speed IN ORDER FOR THEM TO PASS THIS ON TO THE PUBLIC.
The NWS had 5 meteorologists on duty instead of the usual 2 that night. They were at the absolute top of their game using the latest technology.
There's no way that every local official was dumb as a rock and clueless about the risk and clueless about the technology...........when IT WAS THEIR JOB!
This WAS intentionally ignoring it all because they didn't want it to interfere with this tourist towns biggest weekend of the entire year. So they all just hoped it wouldn't happen, DIDN'T pass it on to the public and went to bed to rest up for the big festivities the next day.
https://www.npr.org/2025/07/10/nx-s1-5461091/texas-flooding-warning-system-fema
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Whoa, hold on. Let's first hold the ones accountable NOW for this before using it to blame Trump for future disasters.
This might be true but c'mon let's first focus on THIS disaster which had ZERO to do with anything related to Trump.
ZERO to do with the DOGE cuts.
ZERO to do with the NWS failing in any way, shape or form. They were near perfect.
Close to but not exactly ZERO from climate change.
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However, even without having the warning system in place, most of these lives could have been saved if local officials had just done their jobs and warned the public. Telling the people on the banks of a river in the epicenter of Flash Flood Alley with a high risk of flash flooding. Those same people failed to warn when a warning for the flooding being imminent went out 3.5 hours before it hit. Lots of time to get out if the local officials had done their jobs.
Lots of people NOT WAITING FOR THE LOCAL OFFICIALS AND BEING SMARTER, ACCESSING THE RISK INDEPENDENTLY and cancelling their overnight stay AND LIVING!.
if local officials, that clearly understood the risks from the terrain and from the weather pattern had just leveled with the rest of them or just done their jobs and passed on the NWS watches, warnings, bulletins and emergencies in timely fashion........most of these lives would have been saved.
Sirens would be optimal but local officials could have prevented it.
Kerr County's CodeRED emergency system was first introduced in 2014.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/kerr-county-officials-waited-90-minutes-send-emergency/story?id=123631023
The first alert didn't come through Kerr County's CodeRED system until 90 minutes later. Some messages didn't arrive until after 10 a.m. By then, hundreds of people had been swept away by the floodwaters.
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FEMA records obtained by NBC 5 Investigates show that Kerr County officials did not use FEMA’s Integrated Public Alert & Warning System to send warnings with safety instructions to all mobile phones in the affected area during critical hours as the flooding began on July 4.
The FEMA message archive shows that as the water began rising in Kerr County on July 4, the National Weather Service sent an IPAWS flood warning to cell phones as early as 1:14 a.m.
However, weather service forecasters cannot issue instructions on whether to evacuate or wait for rescue; those messages are up to county or city officials.
The FEMA archive showed that Kerr County did not send any wireless alerts through IPAWS on July 4, when the flooding began.
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As Kerr County leaders avoid alert questions, new audio surfaces in CodeRED timeline
https://versustexas.com/blog/camp-mystic-lawsuit/
| CBS News Analysis | “CBS News analysis shows there were 22 warnings sent by the National Weather Service for Kerr County and the Kerrville area, with escalating language about the urgency of the situation.” |
CNN just had the former DEMOCRATIC mayor of New Orleans, Mitch Landrieu on who was mayor when Hurricane Katrina hit.
Some of his message was good but he repeatedly blamed the cuts to the NWS and DOGE and not 1 time mentioned the local officials being responsible.
Sad when these people use a tragedy like this for their dishonest politics.
There is a near 100% chance that an extremely sharp guy like this, on top of the news really thinks the NWS failed to do their jobs when every iota of evidence proves they did a heroic job that SHOULD HAVE saved most of these lives if the local officials had not catastrophically failed to pass on all their watch, warning, alerts, bulletins, emergencies and constant updates in timely fashion.
Just to repeat:
https://versustexas.com/blog/camp-mystic-lawsuit/
| CBS News Analysis | “CBS News analysis shows there were 22 warnings sent by the National Weather Service for Kerr County and the Kerrville area, with escalating language about the urgency of the situation.” |
At least 19 cabins at Camp Mystic were located in designated flood zones, including some in an area deemed “extremely hazardous” by the county, analysis of federal data by the New York Times shows.
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Camp Mystic passed state inspection two days before deadly flood
This is such bullshit. Passing all these regulations and criteria but being in the epicenter of Flash Flood Alley and NOT having a BATTERY OPERATED WEATHER RADIO!
This is criminal negligence!!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_radio
We keep reading the excuse that the cell phone service was bad or that there were no sirens, BLA, BLA, BLA!
A battery operated NWS weather radio WOULD HAVE warned them hours before the flood hit with plenty of time for everybody to evacuate to higher ground/safety.
The cost of a weather radio is less than $50!!!!!!!!
You don't need cell phone service. The signal and the warnings WOULD HAVE repeatedly set off the weather radio alarm. Each warning, a new alert. Constant updates on the NWS radio.
Local officials authorized spending 5 million to expand the camp into some of the most dangerous, low lying areas of Flash Flood Alley so that they could make more money with their almighty tourism industry. There had to be thousands of hours of planning and work over several years associated with this expansion.
There were dozens of discussions between local officials about getting the funding for an expensive siren system the past decade+.
Yet, not 1 person thought............hey' let's buy some $50, battery operated weather radios for the cabins with basic instructions posted about where to go when a flash flood warning is issued.
And the safety inspectors checking off alot of silly requirements never thought about this all these years???
I've had 2, 9 volt battery operated weather radios in our houses for the past 40 years, even though they haven't been used for a couple of decades because of the improved technology.
This isn't a matter of Monday Morning quarterbacking having 20-20 hindsight. This is more like asking why the losing football team, replaced the all state quarterback with the water boy who didn't even understand how to play football.
The more information that comes out, the more insane this gets!
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This is a 2 minute video about weather radios coming right from the area that got hit:
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1634394920571597/
How many lives would a bunch of weather radios have saved?
Probably everybody in the spots that had 1!
Just 1 adult with a weather radio could have saved ALL THE LIVES of everybody in that group.
Just 1 cabin per group equipped with 1 weather radio and directions about turning it on that night and where to go if/when a flood warning is issued(the first flood warning was issued 3.5 hours before the flood hit).
That's all they needed to do.
This is what they are for!
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More misleading bs for political agenda about things that DID NOT IMPACT THIS EVENT. AS IN ZERO IMPACT. NONE. NATTA. We can sum it up with the 1 quote, embedded in the middle of the article:
“The dedication and passion and zeal of those left behind [after staff reductions] is simply incredible,” Murphy said. “People came in on their own, worked extra hours, et cetera, to get the job done.”
A review of warnings from the NWS Austin/San Antonio Office appear to back that up. The question of why so many perished in the floods has moved away from when warnings were issued by the service to why people did not receive or heed them.
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Those 2 paragraphs should stand out as the most important points and not being hidden, a couple of pages down in the article after blatantly misleading readers of a big problem BEFORE hand.
These are some of the cheap weather radios that everybody can buy that would have saved the lives of almost everybody following one in the early morning hours BEFORE the flash flood hit. They would have had 3+ hours of advance warning from the NWS! They would have also known the day before that there was a flash flood watch and what the risk was..........so they would be ready to act when the alert went off when flooding became imminent(with the warning giving them 3+ hours to act).
My oldest weather radio looks like this:
Just 1 adult with a weather radio could have saved ALL THE LIVES of everybody in that group.
Just 1 cabin per group equipped with 1 weather radio and directions about turning it on that night and where to go if/when a flood warning is issued(the first flood warning was issued 3.5 hours before the flood hit).
That's all they needed to do.
This is what they are for!
Weather radio's cost less than $50! No need for the internet signal, CELL PHONE SIGNAL, television or even electricity since they can be BATTERY OPERATED. They are intentionally designed for use when the power is out and when there are no other ways to get timely, life saving information...........or to just get basic weather information when the weather is not a threat.
Meteorologists recommend NOAA weather radios
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waEWmiv8JaQ
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmHs_qdWLbA
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One of the best ways to stay updated on severe weather is via a weather radio, which the National Weather Service says “public safety efforts agree should be standard in every home.”
In some cases, not knowing about weather changes can merely result in discomfort caused by an unexpected cold front or afternoon thunderstorm when you don’t have a jacket or umbrella. But the result can also put you at risk when dramatic weather changes erupt and bring about flooding, tornadoes or other severe conditions. The National Weather Service says warnings provided by weather radios can save people’s lives during severe weather.
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“public safety efforts agree should be standard in every home.”
Every home? How about cabins along a river with a long history of flashing flooding, in Flash Flood Alley where the risk to lives from weather(flash flooding) is 1,000 times greater than for most homes!
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metmike: Everybody should read this article below from Scientific American
December 21, 2021
A Weather Radio Can Save Your Life
There are many ways to stay informed during a disaster. A weather radio is one of the most reliable
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/watching-for-extreme-weather-try-a-radio/
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Most of the lives lost in this horrible flash flooding disaster would have been saved by cheap, reliable weather radios.
On this same topic. With local officials responsible for messages to alert the public of this threat, why weren't they using a weather radio, instead of sleeping and dreaming about how wonderful the Independence Day activities would be to their counties tourism profits and reputation for being a fun place?
They didn't have 1 person designated for staying up all night during a high risk flooding event that they all should have known about to monitor the weather and having the authorization to immediately issue a code red alert????
Heck, when we have extreme weather here in Indiana, I often stay up most of the night to post updates in our severe weather threads for people that follow us FOR NOTHING!
These people get paid. It's their job to take care of this community. They failed in the most catastrophic way imaginable that early morning but they also failed to have a good plan for umpteen years.
1. No expensive weather sirens. OK, we get that was extremely costly and can debate the cost vs lives lost.
2. No local officials telling the public/campers of the elevated risk for flash flooding in flash flood alley that night, then updating on the warnings, many hours before key places were hit and in time to save lives? Inexcusable.
3. No cheap weather radio's in the cabins, with directions on how to use them and where to go when a flash flood warning ,is issued with them camping on the river bank on flash flood alley???
Beyond inexcusable because of the small costs and potential benefits that greatly exceeded the value of all money by an astronomical amount.
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There 3 words apply and explain the plunging line on the graph below.
1. TECHNOLOGY! (NWS high tech tools) NWS extremely reliable broadcasting.
2. Communication! Television, radio, cell phones, internet, sirens, local officials. WEATHER RADIOS!
3. ADAPTATION! Evacuations. Storm/other shelters. Safe places (higher ground in flash floods). Don't spend $5 million to build new cabins in the highest risk, low lying areas of flash flood alley like local authorities approved to make more money on tourism!
The expansion included new cabins and a dining hall, chapel, archery range and more. The camp had 557 campers and more than 100 staffers between its two locations when a state licensing agency conducted an inspection on July 2, two days before the tragedy, records show.
FEMA referred questions about the expansion to local officials, who didn't reply to messages seeking comment.
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657 people staying there. Let's find out more and how much money this camp made for this county and others. Money/profits, serving rich people and the prestige were clearly the main driving force in decisions related to the local officials completely ignoring the most basic safety principles for cabins in a high risk zone river of flash flood alley.
Added: The cost paid for people that stayed there is not available for the last decade. However, I did find this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camp_Mystic
The camp offered two camp sessions a year until 1983, when a third session was added.[12] By 1996, a session at Camp Mystic cost US$635 (equivalent to $1,273 in 2024).[15] In 2011, a 30-day session cost $4,300
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Let's round that off to AT LEAST $5,000 for each session in 2025. Multiply that by 657 people and you get $3,285,000 or $3.3 million/session.
With 3 sessions, that comes out to almost 10 million for just this camp.
Kerr county is making big money from this as the property owners, that include Camp Mystic pay millions in property taxes each year. This must have played a role in them authorizing Camp Mystic to build new cabins in a high risk flood zone.
Fortunately for these property owners, Kerr county is providing exemptions to property owners impacted by this catastrophic flood:
https://kerrcountytx.gov/kerr-county-all-departments/kerr-county-tax-assessor-collector#gsc.tab=0
In addition, the owners pay local, Kerr County taxes from the massive income they make renting these cabins.
Looks like Kerr county wants to impose a 7% tax on people staying on SHORT term stays at cabins like this which currently just pay a 6% state tax. A 30 day stay might be exempt from that.
People already pay 6% in state of Texas taxes, which is $600,000 for that government entity.
https://kerrcountytx.gov/kerr-county-all-departments/kerr-county-tax-assessor-collector#gsc.tab=0
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Anyway, the Kerr County officials had plenty of financial incentives to maximize the profits generated along the banks of the Guadalupe River at the expense of the safety of people staying in these locations.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/11/us/camp-mystic-owner-warnings-texas-flooding-invs
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Great guy. Except that renting these cabins made him a multi-millionaire and he even built more cabins in the riskiest area after getting FEMA to change their flood plain.
Even though he was trying to get a better alert system, his most important decisions caused many of these deaths for his profits.
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State inspection reports for Camp Mystic obtained by KXAN investigators show the camp had just finished its annual inspection two days before the deadly flash flood. The Department of State Health Services found the camp had the required emergency plans, including written ones in case of a disaster. The state agency said youth camps are required to have those plans posted clearly in every building and reviews the plans on site during a yearly inspection.
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How could this possibly be if the inspectors were qualified and honest????
In addition, all the people staying at these cabins in flash flood alley need to eat. They participate in local Kerr County events, like the Independence Day festivities this year(that trumped safety in the minds of local activities), take tours and stimulate the local economy which is driven by tourism.
They can try to twist the interpretations, blame climate change and the NWS, but the stone cold facts, indisputably point to the culprits and the FINANCIAL reasons for their criminal acts of blatant neglect.
This will clearly serve as a powerful lesson for others even though 99.99% of other places do not have a risk this high. I understand having forgiveness when people make sincere mistakes but in this case, putting money/profits and tourism ahead of safety was at such an absolute extreme end of egregiousness(greatest that I've seen in 43 years of being a meteorologist) that some of these officials should be charged with crimes.
This county will lose badly with 1 sided evidence, similar to what I've provided here in the countless lawsuits filed by the families who lost cherished lives that can never come back to them. The entire nation(and world) is paying attention to what's going on now and the lawsuits down the road will get lots of headline news.
For eternity, this county will now be most known for the tragedy the local officials and rich, powerful property owners caused because they are greedy SOB's that put money/tourism ahead of safety. Maybe it will or maybe it won't cut into their selling out of the renting of cabins in flash flood alley. Hopefully, no more cabins in the highest risk zones. They would have to be brain dead now to not have a solution.............weather radios and specific plans for people staying in cabins and not familiar with local conditions on what to do when the NWS issues a flash flood warning. This basic plan, less than $50 for the cost of a weather radio X however many adults taking responsibility for monitoring weather conditions....at least 1 for each group WILL save future lives where it's used. Extreme weather has always been part of nature and only a single digit fraction of it is the result of climate change with cheap adaption, like using weather radios swamps the higher risks in places like this. Without climate change, maybe the waters would be 7% lower than they were in 2025. Going back to the 1925 could have saved, maybe a dozen lives, right? At the same time, climate change and the added 130+ parts per million increase in CO2 is directly responsible for feeding 2 billion people in the world today.......indisputably because of the law of photosynthesis and benefits that blow away the negatives of slightly worse flash flooding, heat waves, hurricanes and rising sea levels.
The vast majority of life on the planet is begging for MORE CO2 up to the optimal level of 900 ppm that's double the current level of 430 ppm. This planet is irrefutable experiencing a climate optimum based on every authentic, objective scientific measuring assessment. Using specific incidents like this one as if there isn't the other massive beneficial side to all life on this planet is very dishonest.
If we went back to the OLD climate of 100+ years ago, along with the much lower CO2 levels, 2 billion people would starve to death within X number of years and only rich people could afford to buy the scarce food. That is NOT speculation. Photosynthesis is a rock solid scientific law and we know exactly the key role that CO2 plays in plants growing and world food production.
In addition, contrary to what you've been told, climate change and the increase in CO2 is what is protecting us from US Dust Bowls, like the decade of the 1930's. Most people don't realize that there were 3 separate Dust Bowls in the US crop producing regions in the 1800's BECAUSE IT WAS COOLER AND THERE WAS LESS CO2 during that century. You don't have to take my word for it. It's been well documented and studied but the message gatekeepers sensor news like that.
We are living in a climate OPTIMUM for the vast majority of life.
Death by greening:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/#109795
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/113061/
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And your reading the words of a practicing environmentalist that puts taking care of the planet at the top of his list of priorities!
Therealenvironmental crisis's
31 responses |
Started by metmike - April 10, 2019, 7:11 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27498/
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People that claim this is a climate crisis are either completely misinformed with junk science (and no doubt sincere), extremely biased with the inability to see outside of tunnel vision that focuses on only negative impacts, while ignoring the much greater(by an extremely wide margin) benefits to the planet. Or self serving for crony capitalism, political agenda or exploiting the availability of money gushing out for scientists that add the climate crisis to their studies.
Money to research a NON crisis or to prove that we are living in a climate optimum just isn't there compared to money to fund research that has elements of the climate crisis in it. Scientists are not all Mother Theresa's in white lab coats, working for free to benefit mankind.
The same money that the rest of us cherish for what it can do for our lives, is also used by scientists that have the same emotions and desire for life qualify/enhancing material products.
The media exploits the fake climate crisis for ratings and because, in that field there are so many scientifically ignorant, biased activists that follow a climate crisis religion they are dedicated to for their self serving interests. ......without realizing that their climate bible from the IPCC and climate tenets of the fake climate crisis cult like belief system are based on 1 sided junk science that only tells their followers about bad things, censoring all the wonderful things about our climate optimum.
Most are probably very sincere about all their causes. I was part of the tv broadcast industry for 11 years as chief meteorologist for WEHT-TV in Evansville. Great people, most of them but our top priority was and is always to get people to watch because ratings often trump everything else.
I'll not go into a more detailed analysis of the broadcasting industry in this thread but hopefully, the media will spend much more time holding the parties responsible for the loss of most life instead of blaming climate change or the NWS.
In their defense, I've been reading dozens of excellent stories, some posted here from many widely followed information sources that are stating all the right things with profoundly enlightening research and analysis.
So clearly, this is NOT going to be a cover up or censorship of the REAL reasons and culprits.
I posted this in the CC section of a wx board last night when it was already being discussed:
That was a disaster waiting to happen even without CC. We’ll never know for sure about the possible influence of CC on this terrible incident as well as on many other specific incidents. But CC/GW has meant ~ a 7% increase in moisture held in the air per degree C increase. So, CC does make these incidents of very heavy rains within a fairly short period more frequent overall worldwide than before.
Tropical systems, themselves, have on average gotten slightly wetter. Another thing CC has apparently caused is a slight slowdown of average steering winds due to a lowered contrast of the temperature gradient between the tropics and Arctic. Thus, the slightly slower avg movement of slightly wetter tropical systems means more frequent extreme rainfall events from tropical systems.
Thanks, Larry.
Great minds think alike as we were typing on the exact same thing at the same time. Great thoughts.
I also moved some things on the last post above, with the same time as you from a previous post, so maybe you read that one earlier and are commenting based on that. Regardless, excellent comment that represents authentic science.
Yes, I agree that we can educated guess that the same system 100 years earlier would have 7% LESS moisture based on a 1 Deg. C (almost 2 deg. F) warmer atmosphere holding 7% more moisture.
Using that principle, its a good guesstimate for what would have happened without climate change. Let's say there would have been 7% less rain which is very reasonable.
ADDED: Was the slow movement from climate change? That one is impossible to compare in an apples to apples sense but its true that some systems move slower. Part of that is actually connected to the higher latitudes warming the most and a decrease in the meridional temp gradient.
The planet is constantly trying to establish an equilibrium between warmer, lighter air, with a lower pressure and colder, more dense air with a higher pressure. Air moves from higher to lower pressure but the spin of the planet, at around 25,000 miles/hour at the equator but slower and slower going poleward causes the Coriolis force which deflects air going from high pressure to lower pressure to the right and results with a circulation around weather systems(counterclockwise for LOW pressure, clockwise for HIGH pressure) in the Northern Hemisphere. To the left in the S. Hemisphere.
If you reduce the temperature gradients, you reduce the pressure differential/gradients, reduce the strength of jet streams and have more stagnant weather patterns which is happening a bit more with climate change based on the laws of physics/meteorology 101, especially in the Winter which is the not the season for peak blocking. Temperature gradients in the Summer are much less, regardless of climate change and CO2 warms COLD AIR AND DRY AIR the most because those air masses have much less H2O. Air masses already nearly saturated with H2O are maxed out in the radiation absorption band that both these molecule share and don't experience much warming. A warmer ocean is another deal because it can independently evaporate additional moisture to increase precipital water in the atmosphere which may have happened from the remnants of Barry as you mentioned, Larry.
The unequal heating of the sun that gets weaker, moving towards the poles, guarantees that there will always be a strong thermal gradient from south to north.
Think of a theoretical planet with no spin or with the same temperature everywhere.
There would be permanent blocking with the same weather features staying in the same places and the weather would be dominated by regional/local land/ocean relationships.
Arctic air masses would not be that cold and they would never get this far south. There might be even fewer hurricanes but they could be stronger??? with no upper level winds to tear them apart or dry air entertainment?
Not sure on that but for sure, some places close or along ocean coasts would be obliterated by many feet of extra rain every year because of constant blocking and no movement of weather systems.
Deserts would also expand across many continental areas that would never get oceanic air masses and active cold fronts.
It's actually pretty mind boggling to think of the miracle of our weather, driven by the sun's unequal heating, the surface features interacting with the atmosphere above it and the rotation of the planet. +++++++++++++++
As mentioned, how many lives would have been saved by that(compared to feeding 2 billion people and most life benefiting with more food/better conditions) compared to how many lives would have been saved with $50 weather radios and local officials/property owners using ADAPTATION to have ALL these people informed?
It's really dumb from a property owners perspective to build in an extremely high risk flood zone(and should never have been approved) but if renters are informed about the weather, there is literally almost no risk to them.
For instance. How much life threatening risk does a tourist take vacationing on the Gulf Coast during hurricane season?
Adaption, using technology means that number should be only tiny. We track hurricanes and EVERYBODY in 2025 knows when a hurricane is coming, especially a big hurricane and where the hurricane watches and warnings are.
Vacationers in hurricane alley will CANCEL their plans if a big hurricane is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to hit their vacation spot(or leave early). The property owners are the ones that take the big hit. This is no brainer adaptation to save lives.
The exact same NO BRAINER principle was in effect along the Guadalupe River before it flooded. just a bit more complicated because we can't predict a flash flood days in advance like we can a hurricane.
But we CAN predict, with pretty high confidence the highest risk areas a day+ in advance, like we did this last time and issue flash flood WATCHES.
Then, the no brainer principle goes into effect. People staying in flash flood prone areas, during a flash flood watch need to stay constantly informed and tuned into the latest conditions in case a flash flood warning is issued for their area. If and when a warning is issued, they need to know where to go in order to be safe. The NWS almost always puts out warnings of all sorts so that people tuned in have plenty of time to go to a safe place before the extreme weather hits.
Its by far the biggest reason for this chart below(shown again). We live in a wonderful world of technology that makes our lives so much safer. Safer by a couple of orders of magnitude compared to elevated risks from flooding and hurricanes along the coasts (the risk of violent tornadoes is actually lower because of climate change, in addition to technology) just a century ago.
It's great to discuss the 7% of extra rain that probably fell from a warmer atmosphere but not without also discussing the entire picture and putting it into proper perspective.
Not telling the entire story is MISinforming people.
If I was selling a great car at a 900% discount but it had a flat tire and everybody insisted that it was a pile of junk because of the flat tire since we know that cars can't drive on flat tires and it was convincing buyers to avoid the purchase..........it would be like the fake climate crisis and not telling people about the benefits and adaption to the climate optimum.
Like, just fixing the flat tire(for a small cost compared to the value of the car) will get that car back on the road with the driver then able to experience the great value of their purchase, we also can take similar measures, often with small costs to adapt to temporary higher risks in some places..........that pass and then we can resume, greatly benefiting, like the rest of most life on this planet does from the climate OPTIMUM.
People massively investing along coastlines, that have the slightly increasing risk from stronger hurricanes are ANTI adapting to climate change........AT THEIR OWN RISK!
We can understand the desire for people to live and vacation along a coast because we all love the beautiful oceans/lakes.
Climate change increases the risk and their WILL BE more property damage along coastlines from hurricanes. However, going back to the 1925 climate, even if we could, would be the WORST solution of all, just because of the law of photosynthesis and the massive DE-greening of the planet, 25% loss of global food production and harm to most creatures.
Pretending that the 1925 climate and CO2 levels were perfect and increases from there are increasingly harmful is the diametrically opposed polar opposite of the authentic, scientific/biological/agronomic truth.
With regards to climate change. All we've done is impose almost 2 Deg. F of mostly beneficial warming(for most of life) on the atmosphere and added 140 ppm of ENTIRELY beneficial CO2. Both of those factors are greening up the planet and causing a booming biosphere. This is a climate optimum.
Same meteorological principles. Same weather systems with small, single digit % changes. And 1 million times better technology compared to 100 years ago to save lives and adapt.
To bring back the old atmosphere would be COUNTER productive. We should stop pretending like that was the optimal temp and CO2 level. So scientifically dishonest!! Right now is the best for life CO2 since humans existed. We rescued the planet from a CO2 famine which was stunting the growth of all plants/crops, with numerous crop failures/famine in the 1800's. It's also a bit warmer than the Medieval Warm Period 1,000 years but not AS warm as the Holocene Climate Optimum 9,000 to 5,000 years ago.
I analyzed/identified, summarized and corrected a blatant example of it in this thread almost 2 months ago and identified how clever sources typing with convincing reading articles on fork tongue typewriters can pollute the internet and get picked up by science ignorant, activist journalists that copy stuff because it matches up with their preconceived, junk science, tunnel vision world.
Relevant Radio
15 responses |
Started by metmike - May 28, 2025, 6:50 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/112178/
They like to paint people like me as a denier. You can bet that there REALLY ARE millions of deniers that insist that there is no warming or that its all from natural causes or that we don't have heavier, high end rain events or hotter heat waves.
But look at the definition, which is THE problem:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_denial
Climate change denial (also global warming denial) is a form of science denial characterized by rejecting, refusing to acknowledge, disputing, or fighting the scientific consensus on climate change.
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I strongly disagree with how the consensus is portrayed by the media. Greatly exaggerating, sensationalizing and misleading with every extreme weather event. No context. Never any mention that despite the bad things from climate change, we are living in an indisputable, scientific, biological, agronomic climate optimum for planet earth.
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There are 100+ articles out there from this event doing exactly that.
I'll just pluck 1 out, randomly for an example, using the headline/title:
The flash flooding wasn't a result of a full-strength storm, Benitez-Nelson said, but a remnant of a tropical storm. "That, to me, is really sad and deeply alarming," Benitez-Nelson said. "Climate change is turning ordinary weather into these disasters."
100% lie!
Warmer temperatures allow for the atmosphere to hold more water vapor, producing heavier rainfalls, she and other climate scientists said. This coupled with old infrastructure and ineffective warning systems can be disastrous.
Ineffective warning systems? What planet are they living on? Planet fake climate crisis and alarmism!
This is planet earth the past 100 years:
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Buried, near the bottom of the article after they've already formed the opinion of readers is this statement of PROFOUND TRUTH:
He added: "A 7 percent increase of rain is a lot, but doesn't really make the tragedy. If you have a good alert system, if the population knows the risk related to climate change for this weather phenomena and can take them into account, not minimize them, then you can save lives, because it's not double the amount of precipitation, it's not three times. It's something that we can handle if we are prepared."
Other factors in the flooding death toll such as land use change, urban sprawl and warning system failures weren't analyzed and may have further amplified the disaster, the report said.
The biggest problem is the censorship of authentic, objective science like mine. And the scientific ignorance and bias of the gatekeepers of the messaging.
People are constantly bombarded with manufactured fake climate crisis articles from the colluding media and gatekeeper sources and people are not scientists that spend hours fact checking the science of what they read. They don't have the educational background or the time. They assume the convincing sounding reporters/sources know more than them because that's what these sources are paid to do and they...........BELIEVE IT!
They are told things like 97% of climate scientists believe this.
This is so distorted because I'm in the 97% of those atmospheric scientists. They extrapolate what those 97% of scientists in this field agree about(warming from the increase in CO2) into a realm that they DON'T disagree about......a climate crisis.
And 80% of those climate scientists are democrats, some like other people of every profession are human beings with political views that cause bias in their perceptions of the world that gets incorporated into their work subconsciously and sometimes, even consciously.
Alex Epstein does a wonderful job exposing the blatant abuse of using what that 97% number really represents. Again, metmike is in that 97% number!
This guy is a geologist that describes the terrain very well:
Was the Kerr County Flood really a natural event? The landscape has the answer
