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USDA June 30, 2025
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Started by metmike - June 30, 2025, 12:14 p.m
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/112905/
Beans gapped lower on the open because of bearish weather. Corn is also lower! Neither of them can add to early losses.
Corn and Beans act like they don't want to go lower.
The HUUUGE risk for the bears in beans right now is if Trump announces some sort of trade deal with China.
I would be careful being short beans for anything but day trades.
If Trump announced a trade deal with China while the market is closed, it WILL open double digits higher.
30c+ higher is possible on the next open. Maybe much more than that because hundreds of traders would, all at once want out of their shorts (panic buying) with traders interested in selling, holding off until the spike/surge and buying subside. So the market would need to go to a price high enough to uncover enough fresh selling to match up with the enormous buying on the open.
If the market opened 30c+ higher, traders that are holding short and suddenly under water, could panic and want out at the market which could provide a spike to limit up even.
At least with a day trade, you can have a trailing stop to limit the risk to Xc or whatever your risk tolerance is.
I actually covered my SX short (1021 fill at close Friday) when beans started holding the 1016 level around 9:30 pm. I then placed a buy at 1014 and went to bed. Now long 1014. stop 1009.5
Bitcoin next long!
Thanks, tjc!
I don't see the weather as being powerful enough (for me) to drive prices.
If we'd been going up a lot from bullish weather, I would be looking for a short based on this overall bearish forecast and the crop getting closer to being made.
Since we're closer to the lows, like you I would usually be looking to go long but the weather is currently too bearish. Even though it will be getting drier in several places in August, it's not hot enough and soil moisture is wonderful in most places right now.
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At this time of year, the week 1 forecast with this much rain, will usually trump everything else.
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Soil moisture is as good as it gets in the United States/Cornbelt in late July! The dryness in NE/IA has been wiped out!
Last 7 days rain below:
Previous 7 days:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83853
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
After a very cool period, week 2 will start heating up again but NO DOME and more rains coming!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852
All the weather here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
These were the CDDs from the last 0z European Ensemble model for just the Midwest. Below average for a week(below normal temps) heating up in week 2 but with good rains.
August 11th, 500 mb map.
NO THREAT from the dome with northwest flow around the periphery and perturbations in the northwest flow(vorticity in yellow) tracking around the periphery of the heat ridge into the Cornbelt.
The northern stream which is bringing the very cool weather this week has retreated back into Canada.
Weather remains BEARISH!
US corn conditions fall 1 point as expected, but soybeans rise 2 points instead of the predicted 1pt decline. Spring wheat & cotton conditions also fell on the week. Don't forget: USDA has US spring wheat yield close to the year-ago levels (49% ge now vs 74% ge yr ago).
Bears could gap lower on the open tonight with the improvement compared to expectations.(3% better).
This was after a big drop last week, that followed a big improvement the week before. Not sure why the market would have expected a decline with that great weather last week, especially in IL.
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US soybean conditions rise 2 pts on the week to 70% good/excellent. Improvements across top states - including a 5pt jump in top producer Illinois - offset various declines. 70% g/e is the week's best rating since 2020
US corn conditions fall 1 pt on the week based on declines in Minnesota and a few other states. But the I-states each improved by 1 pt. Top grower Iowa's corn crop is now 87% good/excellent, the best score for any week since 1994.
Eric was in with his excellent weather presentation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRgkVHKu5yw
Matt is in with the weather today:
