NG is ~-1% vs Friday.
Thanks very much for starting the new thread, Larry!
Been busy catching up on outdoor projects.
The previous thread is here:
6-29-25 Natural Gas
69 responses |
Started by metmike - June 29, 2025, 4:45 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/112895/
Latest 12z European Ensemble. The 0z will be updated shortly.
Decent heat coming up in August with slight cooling late in the period but staying WELL above average. I'm a bit surprised with that forecast that we're not higher here.
The week 3+ forecasts also keep the heat coming compared to average all the way into mid-September. So we should see well above average demand for cooling from burning natural gas to generate electricity but the market doesn't care this evening.
This is similar to last weeks forecast so it the market seems to have baked it in already. We'll see what the models show overnight, then around 6am, when the big funds jump in with crazy algorithms, the volatility will jump much higher.
These were the temps for the next EIA, natural gas storage report released every Thursday at 9:30am CDT.
Very impressive positive anomalies(East/Southeast) considering it was just 1 week after the hottest week of the year SEASONALLY. Add in extremely high dew points in the many high populations centers and the next storage report should be VERY bullish compared to normal. The market knew this a couple of weeks ago when the price spiked higher, so the EIA number will be compared to market expectations.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php
Not much change on the last 0z European Ensemble model(purple/right) compared to the previous 12z model.
NG is struggling to hold key $3 support, despite the bullish temps for the month of August. Not a good sign for the bulls.
As mentioned, natural gas is struggling to hold $3 support, in spite of bullish temperatures coming in August and positive seasonals. This is a very bad sign!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
1. 1 day-as is typical at 6am. The big traders came in and caused the modest strength overnight to GET CRUSHED BY SELLING.
2. 1 week-$3 is a key area of strong support-not holding up well with bullish August weather
3. 1 month-$3 is a key area of strong support
4. 1 year-$3 is a key area of strong support
5. 10 years
Great site for seasonals!
They are fairly bullish thru September. With heat returning to the forecast, my WEATHER bias is to the upside but weather is NOT they key price determining factor to start this week.
A contracting economy, however reduces industrial demand. Also, some demand for natural gas in the Summer to burn to generate electricity for cooling/AC use has being replaced with wind and solar.
Also, production has increased a bit and last Thursday's EIA was SOLIDLY BEARISH!
https://equityclock.com/seasonality/
https://equityclock.com/charts/
https://charts.equityclock.com/natural-gas-futures-ng-seasonal-chart
Not surprisingly, with the market NOT reacting to bullish August heat and the large specs pounding ng at 6am when they entered the day trading session, NG has collapsed lower in the last few minutes, likely hitting tons of SELL STOPS under last weeks lows and under MAJOR-MEGA support that goes back years.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
The 0z guidance was MUCH hotter.
The lows are likely in. EE +4 HDDS, GEFS +5 HDDS.
Yesterday may have been a washout and fake out. We will see if the new guidance confirms. We need to get back above $3!
This was the last 0z EE for CDDS in purple on the right. 
This last 6z GEFS was not quite as hot but is still hotter than previous guidance. We spiked above $3 briefly but couldn't hold. If the forecasts keep this added heat in, the lows are likely in. If not, then that was just a retest of huge broken support at $3 and now it's resistance?
The last 12z actually took out a bunch of the additional heat, so we closed a bit off the highs and right at $3.
Models continue cooler. Another -7HDDS on this last 0z GEGS!
Maybe the lows are not in because now temps are cooler than when we made the lows….but still HOTTER THAN AVERAGE.
Alot going on with this 1 week chart.
Starting from the left. We tested $3 after the bearish EIA last Thursday and it held.
We started Sunday Night on the weak side, then collapsed lower on Monday, well below $3 with a major downside break out thru long lived very strong $3 support.
Monday Night, the models turned MUCH HOTTER and we spiked back above $3, closing at that level on Tueday.
0Z models turned cooler over night and we went back below $3.
This last 06 GEFS was a bit hotter again and we spiked back up to test $3, which is not resistance.
2. This is the chart for the past 24 hours. You can see the big plunge overnight from the much cooler 0z GEFS, then a retest of $3 just now from the hotter 6z GEFS. I'm leaning to the bullish side from the hotter weather coming up compared to average but the market seems to only want to trade above $3 when the forecast is even HOTTER than this.
A few minutes after that last post, we spiked MUCH higher. This makes more sense to me based on the hotter than average temps coming up!
The lows are in assessment from earlier this week is confirmed!
This is the 1 week chart.
1. Mondays spike low at the bottom and FAKE downside break out below $3. Despite a bullish/hot forecast.
2. Tuesdays big bounce back above $3 and close at $3.
3. Early Wednesday's 0z GEFS was less hot (and reversed with 6z guidance) and we tested the downside again at 2.95 but quickly recovered to well above $3 and now are at the highs from Sunday Evening. The upcoming, widespread heat for the rest of August looks very likely and is BULLISH!
4. Friday's highs are the top line.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
Previous thread on this:
By metmike - Aug. 4, 2025, 1:27 a.m.
These were the temps for the next EIA, natural gas storage report released every Thursday at 9:30am CDT.
Very impressive positive anomalies(East/Southeast) considering it was just 1 week after the hottest week of the year SEASONALLY. Add in extremely high dew points in the many high populations centers and the next storage report should be VERY bullish compared to normal. The market knew this a couple of weeks ago when the price spiked higher, so the EIA number will be compared to market expectations.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php
++++++++++++++++++++++
Thursday's update:
Very bullish number(as expected). The South Central region had A DRAW DOWN of 17 Bcf!!!
for week ending August 1, 2025 | Released: August 7, 2025 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: August 14, 2025
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (08/01/24) | 5-year average (2020-24) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 08/01/25 | 07/25/25 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 656 | 651 | 5 | 5 | 718 | -8.6 | 659 | -0.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 775 | 765 | 10 | 10 | 852 | -9.0 | 770 | 0.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 249 | 243 | 6 | 6 | 256 | -2.7 | 197 | 26.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 305 | 302 | 3 | 3 | 289 | 5.5 | 265 | 15.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 1,145 | 1,162 | -17 | -17 | 1,153 | -0.7 | 1,066 | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 296 | 316 | -20 | -20 | 301 | -1.7 | 274 | 8.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 849 | 846 | 3 | 3 | 851 | -0.2 | 792 | 7.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 3,130 | 3,123 | 7 | 7 | 3,267 | -4.2 | 2,957 | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working gas in storage was 3,130 Bcf as of Friday, August 1, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 7 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 137 Bcf less than last year at this time and 173 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,957 Bcf. At 3,130 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2020 through 2024. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.
++++++++++++++++++++++
NG had an immediate spike higher on the release of the very bullish EIA report at 9:30 am.........and that resulted in heavy selling pressure since then the past 2 hours.
BUY THE RUMOR, SELL THE FACT!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
1. 1 day-spike high from EIA report
2. 1 week- left bottom=lows on Monday, then the forecasts turned hotter Monday Night.
center bottom=lows Wednesday after GEF came out with an outlier cooler solution
top right=spike high from EIA report
top red line=highs from last Friday. We need to close above that to confirm the lows are in.
3. 1 year- $3 support held. Descending wedge.
4. 10 years-$3 support held. Descending wedge? Or a longer term symmetrical wedge?(higher lower-lower highs)
Take it with a grain of salt. Very cold weather coming up to start the heating season according to this guy.
The last overnight EE model was -4CDDs to the bearish side.
This last 12z GEFS was a whopping -6 CDDs. Prices have been under pressure overnight and today from the more bearish temps in the updated forecasts.
However, they are still fairly hot compared to average so NG is not acting well. Only when the heat increases does it go higher with a downside bias this week. Prices are closing lower this week and just under the SUPER DUPER significant $3 level,
Price action the last 2 days……since the reversal up earlier this week has negated most of the impact of the bottoming formation. At the very least we should expected a close today above $3 support.
However, its natural gas and we have 2 days for the often fickle weather models to change a lot and make anything I’m stating now worthless!
MUCH cooler temps!
Huge gap lower, more to come when back on the computer.
I just started working on a project converting 400 hours of our home videos, starting in 1985 to hard drive and it's very time consuming.
The last 12z European Ensemble model, in purple/right was an incredible -10 CDDs compared to the previous 0z run.
We've been trading a HOT August for weeks and now temps plunge close to average in week 2 on this latest run.
We added back +4 CDDs on the last 0z EE which helped us to climb back to unch, fill the gap lower and put in a gap and crap signature on the charts, which is a selling exhaustion. Regardless, there is still much less heat today than last week in this forecast, so I'm NOT bullish from weather.
$3, which was extremely strong support before this time frame is now strong resistance. It seems unlikely that we will continue to sell off, however if Trumps policies start tanking the economy, then the loss of industrial demand for ng could add an additional negative and cause ng prices to go lower at a time of year when they usually go up(ahead of Winter).
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
1. 1 day: 2.9 low was just after the open and bottom of the gap lower. Top red line was the top of the gap which got filled but no follow thru with $3 holding, now we'r'e back into the gap.
2. 1 month: Double bottom around 2.9 or just a retest of $3 this morning? Clearly a down trending channel.
3. 1 year: Downside break out below $3 and below the descending triangle formation this Summer.
4. 10 years: Downside break out below a symmetrical triangle which is the interpretation until we at least close solidly above $3 again.
5. Price charts can be extremely useful for predicting where markets are going but they only tell us what those markets did. They can't predict news. They CAN predict weather because they often react in tune with the latest weather forecasts. However, they are just as fickle as the changes in the weather forecasts.
The last 12z EE model was a bit cooler and continues the trend of much cooler compared to previous forecasts for August.
Another -6 CDDs on the last 0z EE so natural gas sold off overnight. We're down at the lows.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
1. 1 week
NG crashing lower!!! -$1,700/contract. The last 12z model runs were even cooler compared to the previous guidance.
1 week below.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
The last oz EE was +6 CDDs, though the last GEFS was the same as its previous run. We tried to rally earlier but have struggled so far tonight.
The changes were for INDIVIDUAL DAYS with the same pattern and DOWNWARD trajectory compared to the previous 12z run.
Temps for tomorrow's EIA at 9:30 am. Much cooler 7 day temps last week vs the previous report!
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php
This was the previous 7 days that went into last weeks BULLISH +7 Bcf injection.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: NG 8/4/25+
By metmike - Aug. 7, 2025, 12:24 p.m.
7am: This last 6z GEFS (purple/right) was COOLER in week 2 than the previous runs.
The last 12z European Ensemble model(purple-right) was a whopping +8 CDDs vs the previous 0z run from 12 hours earlier. NG spiked to the highs but settled back a bit with ZERO follow thru. The bears are in solid control here with the major downside break out below key support of $3 looking ominous technically. I'm surprised at the bearishness/weakness. Could be a slowing economy will be cutting industrial demand? The EIA tomorrow with a much bigger injection expected could be a factor too.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
1. 1 week- Plunging lower, downside break out. Double bottom today??
2. 1 month-solid downtrend. -$7,000/contract
3. 1 year-downside break out below $3! Lowest price of 2025
4. 10 years-downside break out below $3! Break out below symmetrical triangle(lower highs/higher lows but we just made a NEW LOWER low).
The last 12z run of the EE is suggesting a huge potential pattern change at the end of week 2, which is why it added so many CDDs in week 2.
The upper level ridge, instead of maintaining the center in the Rockies to the Plains as predicted the past several days shifts the heat ridge MUCH farther east.
1. 500mb solution for 2 weeks from early Monday
2. Last 500 mb solution for 2 weeks
3. However, the last 500 mb solution from the GEFS has NOT changed.
These 2 models are mind boggling different at the end of 2 weeks. The GEFS has TROUGHING in the Southeast, while the last EE model builds a strong Bermuda Ridge there, with the upper level troughing in southeast Canada.
The last 0z EE was another -6 CDDs(purple/right), so nat gas has been under a bit of pressure since that came out.
+56 Bcf! The market was near the highs but spiked down ~$400/contract immediately after the release.
for week ending August 8, 2025 | Released: August 14, 2025 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: August 21, 2025
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (08/08/24) | 5-year average (2020-24) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 08/08/25 | 08/01/25 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 677 | 656 | 21 | 21 | 722 | -6.2 | 674 | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 796 | 775 | 21 | 21 | 867 | -8.2 | 790 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 253 | 249 | 4 | 4 | 260 | -2.7 | 200 | 26.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 305 | 305 | 0 | 0 | 287 | 6.3 | 266 | 14.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 1,154 | 1,145 | 9 | 9 | 1,129 | 2.2 | 1,060 | 8.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 295 | 296 | -1 | -1 | 288 | 2.4 | 268 | 10.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 859 | 849 | 10 | 10 | 841 | 2.1 | 792 | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 3,186 | 3,130 | 56 | 56 | 3,265 | -2.4 | 2,990 | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working gas in storage was 3,186 Bcf as of Friday, August 8, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 56 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 79 Bcf less than last year at this time and 196 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,990 Bcf. At 3,186 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2020 through 2024. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods
++++++++++++++++++++
The upper level ridge shifting to the east and being strong in the south on the latest EE runs, introduces much more potential heat for late August in the high population centers. Late week 2 and week 3 carry an even higher than usual amount of uncertainty right now.
This was 360 hours on the last 0z European Ensemble model.
This was the last 6z GEFS for the same time. HUGE difference for the location of the heat ridge! Heat in the Rockies and Plains where not as many people live and use air conditioners for cooling that require electricity, much of which is generated by burning natural gas.
The last 6z GEFS came out hotter and as is very typical when the big traders enter the market around 6am(with their trading algorithms) , the market had its most significant move.
1. The last run was in purple on the right. Note the steep UPward trajectory at the end of 2 weeks for the last 4 runs, strongly suggesting increasing heat in week 3. The market IS trading the weather that far out as that is the least known and least dialed into the price and the MOST new information is gushing in for that period.
2. 1 week chart: Major spike low/triple bottom after the bearish EIA report. Spike down, then reversal at 6am this morning(warmer 6z GEFS). $3 RESISTANCE above.
3. 1 year chart: Downtrend this Summer with downside breakout below MAJOR support at $3. However this could be a FAKE (technical) downside break out that was nothing more than a market response to COOLING temperatures. Now that temperatures are heating up again, we could get some bullish traction.
4. Last 500 mb map on the 0z European Ensemble model. Continues to BUILD the upper level ridge much farther east than earlier this week. So more heat in the south and east, where more people live vs the Rockies and Plains, where less people live compared to the heat ridge much farther west. Still some lingering upper level troughing in the Northeast and uncertainty at this time frame. However, the longer range(week 3+) forecasts all suggest the heat pouring in during September which may be bullish enough for us to trade back above $3(previous support, now resistance).
The last 12z GEFS was a whopping -12 CDDs compared to the previous 6z run and has cooling not heating up at the end of 2 weeks.
This seems very reasonable, considering the heat ridge building strongly across the south late in week 2.
Last European Ensemble mean forecast had cooled off -6 CDDs(purple/right) with the latest models not quite as hot to start off week 3.
The models have been blindsided by the northern stream this month. The current heat was supposed to define the entire month.
1. These were the CDDs for the next 2 weeks from 9 days ago. This pattern was expected to continue:
By metmike - Aug. 8, 2025, 12:14 p.m.
The last overnight EE model was -4CDDs to the bearish side(right/purple)
2. I used the last 4 runs of the cooler model, here on 8-17-25 GEFS for the 2nd graph below. The last one, 12z run is in purple on the right. The plunge lower to BELOW average temperatures for a week is profound compared to early month expectations. We MAY start heating up again at the end of the month but the trend recently has been to add cooling from the models dialing in northern stream influence they didn't see earlier this month.
NG WILL open lower tonight!
5pm: We are around $500/contract lower.
1. The CDD chart on the right was the GEFS solutions from just 4 days ago, 8-13-25. 203 total CDDs with much of the huge drop lower already dialed in.
2. This was that last 12z GEFS in purple (180 CDDs) and previous 3 runs. The steep upward trajectory for the last 5 data points will quickly heat us up again and probably why NG may still get some support here. In other words, the changes from last week are more FROM INDIVIDUAL COOLER DAYS but not from a pattern change.
The last 0z European Ensemble mean came out a whopping -7 CDDs cooler after midnight(purple right side-previous run from 12 hours earlier in tan) and we continued under pressure until that magical mystery 6am time frame, when the big money and their algorithms (and other ideas) jump in.
We rallied $1,000/contract after that.
We should note below that the configuration of the lines on the right are exactly the same but with a big shift down in week 2. This tells us that the additional cooling was entirely from much cooler individual days IN THE SAME PATTERN and not from a pattern change. The overall trajectory is the same, with the exception of the shift down in the middle of the graph because of an additional, much stronger NORTHERN STREAM blast of cooler air. The models have been UNDER forecasting the northern stream this month with most updates getting cooler than the previous forecast.
1. 1 day: Top line was the opening price on Sunday Evening.
2. Accelerated down slope line was after the COOLER EE(from above) came out.
3. Up slope line started just after 6am when day session traders take over
4. We are currently ABOVE the open from Sunday Evening. Still slightly lower than the close on Friday but closer to the highs for the session and almost completely shrugging off the MUCH cooler updates since Friday.
