What's coming up?

Here's the Surface Low Pressure solutions from the 12z European Ensemble models individual members for some interesting time frames.

Not much going on the next several days.

Day 8: Storm off the East Coast

Day 14: Lots of potential new activity blossoming in the key area for storm births

EXTREMELY quiet in the tropics for this time of year. Ferdinand is at 45 mph and weakening.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Models don't show much thru the first week in September. Seasonally tropical storms really pick up then, so odds are high that mid September will feature many more storms. 

MJO is in phase 4-5 now which suppresses tropical activity but should be sliding around to phases 1-2, around the 2nd week in September which, along with the warm ocean temps and time of year, might really ignite alot of tropical activity.

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Forecast

Data from the Climate Data Center       

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/usatlant.fc.gif

We can see the cooler water band in the Western Atlantic in the wake of Erin. Erin stirred up cooler water from significant depths below the surface.

Ocean temps of at least 26 deg. C are needed for a hurricane, which is around 79 deg. F.

Warmer ocean temps have been associated with rapid intensification(when all other elements are favorable at the same time). 

Rapid intensification

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_intensification

This was the Surface Low Pressure forecasts for the different European Ensemble model  individual member forecasts from the last 12z run for September 12th, 360 hours/15 days from now.

The Atlantic Basic is coming to life with tropical activity!! This is also approaching the season peak, along with the warm waters and the MJO in a favorable phase.

 Hopefully, these storms will not threaten the US with any direct hits.

The tropics will be EXPLODING with activity in week 2! These are all the individual solutions for SLP from the Europe Ensemble model.  There may be 3 different storms going at the same time. 

1. Day 7: Birthplace for new storms

2. Day 10: Storms develop and move west

3. Day 13: Storms develop, move west and turn sharply north before hitting the US Coast, though a couple of outliers hit the US, including an outlier in the Gulf of Mexico.

4. Day 15: Same extremely active pattern continues. Most likely paths are similar to Erin, WELL off the East Coast. However, there are a couple of solutions that hit the East Coast or Gulf of Mexico but they are close to outliers. 

Very interesting ,Mike

Thanks

   Oh.    Didnt realize how that was graphed.

You're welcome, John!

The surface low pressure forecasts are all the different places that the individual ensemble members think that a storm could be in at a certain time frame. Most of them show a different location FOR THE SAME STORM. So it's not like the different locations mean different individual storms, although its likely that there will be more than 1 at the same time.

Here's that same product, from the last 0z European Ensemble Model. This is for Surface Low Pressure and dozens of individual members of the ensemble model.

1. 7 days out. There is some VERY strong agreement on a storm in that vicinity(each solution is a tiny bit different), so confidence is fairly high. 

2. 11 days out.  Location and intensity spread is pretty wide that far out but it does look active. Storms look like they will make a north turn as they approach the United States. A couple of outliers allow a storm to track or develop into the Gulf of Mexico!

3. 15 days out. New disturbances being generated in the East Tropical Atlantic, which will  likely end up as week 3 storms/hurricanes as they track west in the tropical Atlantic. 

The best POTENTIAL news is that the consensus solutions do not target the US thru around day 10. However the uncertainty and threat in 2 weeks is elevated compared to the periods before that.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

70% of this becoming a tropical depression by the end of the week!

9-6-25 update: Down to a 30% chance of this turning into a depression!

Still pretty quiet but not for long:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

After the huge boost up from Erin last month, ACE in the tropical Atlantic basin has dropped below average again:

Department of Atmospheric Science | Tropical Meteorology Project

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic

Pretty quiet tropics for this time of year for the next days. Then much more active:

Day 5 outlook from the European Ensemble model with individual solutions. Still quiet.

Day 10 from the same model:  Tropical systems possible in numerous locations!

Day 15: Storms maturing as they move west. Some threatening the United States. Some could be major hurricanes. This product has very skill this far out for any one solution. However it does a good job for identifying likely locations and potential intensities.