• The latest employment snapshot from the Bureau of Labor Statistics paints a bleak picture of the current state of the economy under President Donald Trump.
• Labor market deterioration: Just 22,0000 jobs were added in August, dramatically lower than economists’ expectations for 76,500 new roles.
• Negative job growth: For the first time in nearly four years, the economy lost jobs, with a decline of 13,000 positions in June.
• Rising unemployment: The jobless rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021.
• Stagnation: The data underscores the extent to which consumers and businesses are struggling to accommodate the weight of tariffs, stubborn inflation, the decline in America’s crucial immigrant workforce and overall economic uncertainty.
https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/us-jobs-report-august-2025
Thanks very much, Larry!
This is more confirmation of what is happening from the ruinous policies of a pathologically thinking person making really bad economic decisions!
We can use your post to start a new thread on this topic as 2 of the other ones were getting extremely long. Thanks!
50% tariffs on EU starting June 1
61 responses |
Started by metmike - May 23, 2025, 8:13 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/112084/
evolution of Atlanta fed est. of GDP...shocking
30 responses |
Started by mcfarm - June 6, 2025, 6:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/112363/
China and India pledge to be 'partners not rivals'
7 responses |
Started by metmike - Aug. 31, 2025, 5:18 p.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/114312/
Micro Nasdaq
35 responses |
Started by mikempt -
https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/us-jobs-report-august-2025
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-gets-abysmal-jobs-figures-after-firing-bls-chief-2125087
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has again handed President Donald Trump a bleak set of jobs numbers, just one month after he fired the agency's commissioner over weak employment data.
Last month, President Trump said the bad numbers were because of the person that was the head of the statistics department intentionally targeting him with fake numbers to make him look bad, after giving the market fake good numbers last year to try to get Biden elected.
So he fired her.
This month, the bad numbers are the fault of the Fed for not lowering interest rates TO HELP FIX WHAT HE CAUSED WITH HIS BAD POLICIES THAT ARE WRECKING THE ECONOMY.
He already fired 1 of those interest rate setting governors that disagreed with him.
What next?
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The revised number for June showed that there was a net LOSS in jobs. The first net loss in jobs since 2020, when it happened because of the COVID virus in December 2020.
The time previous to that was September 2010. So months when our economy actually loses jobs dont happen too often.
In 2025, the economy is being negatively impacted by THE TRUMP VIRUS!
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/05/job-seekers-face-worst-game-of-musical-chairs.html
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We could be witnessing the early stages of a Trump caused global train wreck in slow motion.
If Trump doesn’t do something fast to reverse many of his tariffs, I predict a high probability of a USA and global recession.
If he continues them into early 2026, then a moderate confidence chance of a severe USA and global recession.
It’s just a stone cold fact that the health of our global economy is extremely dependent on FREE TRADE.
Trumps tariffs which greatly stifle the buying and selling of many billions in goods WILL(not maybe) stifle global and USA GDP.
How can that not happen? Of course it will!!
I don't remember if I posted this obvious observation here or elsewhere but I knew he wouldn't fire Powell. He will (is) scapegoating him. "Too late Powell"...
I don't agree with this ill conceived policy (regressive to boot), nor the illegal manner in which he usurped power. But, in the interest of honesty, I must point out that the stock market seems resilient in the face of all this. If you told me these economic numbers were coming from the beginning of the year I would have guessed the market would be much lower than here.
Why??
This is a great question, joj!
I do remember you stating that he would not fire Powell, who's term expires early next year.
On the stock market, yes indeed. I've discussed this contradiction several times here with a speculative but informed opinion but will try to briefly summarize it.
1. The stock market is clearly NOT trading authentic value since most of it is more than double the actual intrinsic value. The stock market is detached from objective financial data but also uses more than market sentiment to trump that. In investing, it's the estimated true value of a stock or company, derived from expected future cash flows, earnings, or assets that is SUPPOSED to drive stock prices but that's of lesser importance than the "rising tide,lifting all boats" phenomena.
2. A huge part of this is that the stock market is driven by a self fulfilling prophesy dynamic. Unlike almost all other(commodities) that I've followed closely for over 3 decades that trade on demand/supply fundamentals, the stock market doesn't have supply like oil and soybeans or buyers that use up those products. And contracts that expire with the buyers and sellers matching up with the real world, holding these markets accountable to the intrinsic value.
3. Not being tethered to intrinsic value has allowed the stock market to turn into a Ponzi Scheme for Wealthy people. As long as they keep buying corrections and adding to already over leveraged long positions, they can keep it going higher indefinitely. They give less weight to bad news and more weight to good news and as always, follow the trend and assumption that for the past 100 years, if you buy the stock market and hold on you will always make money(despite corrections). The vast majority of investors and speculators assuming that makes it the self fulfilling prophesy.
4. I discussed those 3 items numerous times in the stock market thread but will add something new, THE MOST IMPORTANT ONE that directly relates to your wonderful point.
Baby bonds are one effective strategy for addressing the fact that only 1 percent of stock market wealth is owned by the bottom half of households.
https://inequality.org/article/stock-ownership-concentration/
The U.S. stock market is where major wealth gains have been achieved. The estimated current valuation of the U.S. stock market is $46.2 trillion, according to Siblis Research. This value has tripled over the last 20 years. (In 2003, the total value was $14.2 trillion.) Based on this estimate, the richest 10 percent of U.S. households own roughly $42.7 trillion in stock market wealth, with the richest 1 percent owning $25 trillion. The bottom half of U.S. households own less than half a trillion dollars in stock market wealth.
This fact is the biggest reason for the stock market to keep making new highs, DESPITE bad news for MOST OF US and for the US economy.
The Big(NOT) Beautiful Bill for instance will do things to make the rich even richer and the poor even more poor. The majority of money in the stock market is trading something a bit DIFFERENT than the rest of us because the top 1% doesn't care about millions losing heath care for instance. They have so much control of this Ponzi Scheme, with a common interest that they can sort of collude to keep prices going higher.
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I mentioned that commodity markets don't do this but actually, they sometimes do.
Large specs are such a high % of the thinly traded wheat market that they can often make it go in a direction that defies fundamentals and keep it at that level for long periods that don't make sense.
When powerful fundamentals suddenly change against their position, the spike from the long/short covering of their large spec positions can be enormous.
It makes them extremely vulnerable when the fundamentals get so powerful against them, that they all bail at the same time in a thinly traded market which causes enormous spikes.
The stock market is NOT thinly traded by any means but the % controlled by a like minded group, being over 50% is allowing that group to push it where they want it to go DESPITE the fundamentals that most of us look at for OUR economy.
I've been sounding a warning about this vulnerability for the past 2 weeks or so that is especially high the next 2 months.
By metmike - Aug. 24, 2025, 7:44 p.m.
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Despite that, I'll continue to do technical/chart analysis based on what the charts say.........which is a good look at what the top 1% of US people are doing with their money because of what THEY think Trump will do for them!!
Sadly, as mentioned previously, Trump watches the stock market and considers this strength as a positive reinforcement and justification to double and triple down on his most ruinous policies, especially tariffs.
Is there something that I'm totally oblivious to that only the 1% most wealthy Americans know about related to the future of our economy, which is fact is going to set record highs for GDP and productivity that matches the record high stock market?
Could be...........and I look for it every day.
And that Fox News and Donald Trump are totally right about the economy and I just can't see it?
That might be a first but I encourage people to fill me in on the big secret which none of the authentic data/evidence indicates.
If its authentic, I'll celebrate being enlightened with a huge thanks and quickly dial that into my analysis!!!!