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August 12, 2025 USDA
63 responses |
Started by metmike - Aug. 12, 2025, 2:12 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/113898/
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Flash Drought/Heat/Weather updates
30 responses |
Started by metmike - Sept. 2, 2025, 9:39 a.m.
With a bearish report of more corn acres the market closed higher right at resistance of July 18 high.
Could traders be waking up to the lower yields from the drought in the eastern Midwest???
You may be right, cutworm!
Maybe they learned a lesson after last year???
More to come on Saturday but this one I had to share now:
Chart of the day (week? month? year?) Not sure I really need to say much, the chart speaks for itself. I can't explain it and I'm not sure what it means going forward.
Conab boosted Brazil's 2024/25 corn and soybean crops on Thursday. The agency also reviewed and revised the past five years of soy crops, resulting in a 13.12 mmt increase in production overall. Despite the bigger corn crop, Conab didn't hike corn exports.
USDA increased Brazil's 24/25 corn crop to 135 mmt but left all other major South American crop estimates unchanged from last month.
USDA reduced U.S. corn yield but hiked planted area by another 1.4M acres, so production went up. Bean plantings were up slightly as well.
U.S. corn production is now expected at a whopping 16.8 billion bushels (427 mmt) with harvested area above 90M acres. Bean yield came down a hair but area also increased there.
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USDA increased 2025/26 world wheat stocks by much more than expected after harvest increases in Russia, Ukraine, Canada, Australia and the EU.
U.S. corn yield is expected at a record 186.7 bushels per acre, but most states are seen with lower yield potential versus a month ago.
U.S. corn planted area increased by 1.5% from last month. The new figure - 98.73 million acres - is the largest planted area since 1936.
metmike: WOW!!!! WOW!!!!!!!!
The question we are all now asking. How did we find 3.5 million more corn acres since the June survey?
Chart of the day (week? month? year?) Not sure I really need to say much, the chart speaks for itself. I can't explain it and I'm not sure what it means going forward.
metmike: WOW!!!!!!!!!!!
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U.S. soybean yield is seen slightly lower than last month's forecast, but 53.5 bushels per acre would still easily beat 2016's record of 51.9.
U.S. soybean planted area increased 0.3% from last month's estimate, including higher acres in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and Indiana.
The anomaly would also be large for soybeans but not suspiciously large. 2019 can be explained by the spring flooding but 2015 was also in the mix - no planting problems then.
Last week's U.S. export inspections of corn, soybeans and wheat all topped trade expectations. No cargoes to China, but destinations were otherwise plentiful and diverse for all three crops.
Very strong start to 2025/26 for corn and very respectable one for beans as well. Problem with soybeans is that there aren't too many sales on the books. USDA's new 2025/26 U.S. soybean export target of 1.685 billion bushels is the agency's lowest September print since 2013.
NOPA U.S. crush, August 2025:189.810 mln bu of soybeansAbove all trade guesses (avg was 182.86 mln)p 20% on the year, 13% above prior Aug record (2019)Soyoil stocks 1.245 bln lbsBelow avg trade guess of 1.298 blnUp 9.4% on the year
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U.S. corn and soybean harvest is in the early stages and moving a hair slower than a year ago. Spring wheat harvest is just about finished, but winter wheat planting is going slower than expected.
Here's U.S. soybean harvest progress. By Sept. 30, just over 24% of beans have typically been cut. That jumps to 87% by Oct. 31.
It's still early in the 2025 U.S. corn harvest, but this is how we might expect it to progress. Most years are pretty tightly packed along the average, there's not as much variation in harvest as there is in planting. By Sept. 30, corn is usually 21% harvested. Oct. 31 = 79%.
Matt was in with the weather this morning!
