live cattle breaking to new highs
Thanks very much, cutworm!
I haven't followed cattle in a long time but remember sometimes a correlation between grain prices and cattle prices.
And the stock market being very strong with strong cattle prices.
I'm working outside most of the day today but this is a great start to a new thread.
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I can't get price charts for cattle at the moment from the source posted here but will try to figure it out.
I forgot about this thread until just now:
By metmike - Oct. 23, 2025, 5:28 p.m.
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U.S. beef & beef product imports were record high in 2024 (up 25% on the year). Jan-July 2025 imports were up 27% over the same period in 2024. But U.S. beef prices have still surged in the last year+ *despite* the huge spike in imports.
Argentina accounted for 2% of U.S. beef & beef product imports in 2024, reaching a 24-year high. In Jan-July 2025, Argy beef imports were up 41% from the same period in 2024.
At least through August 2025, this increase in imports had not provided any relief for U.S. consumer in the way of beef prices.
Trump says U.S. cattle ranchers ‘don’t understand’ tariffs after some slam Argentine beef plan
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/22/trump-ranchers-beef-tariffs-argentina.html
Trump claimed that those ranchers “don’t understand that the only reason they are doing so well, for the first time in decades, is because I put Tariffs on cattle coming into the United States.”
He highlighted the 50% tariff he imposed in early August on imports from Brazil, one of the top sellers of beef to the U.S.
“If it weren’t for me, they would be doing just as they’ve done for the past 20 years — Terrible!” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.
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Trump just admitted that his tariffs cause higher prices and in this case, brags about them to claim that he is responsible for higher beef prices for consumers which is resulting in ranchers making money...BECAUSE OF HIM!
Incredibly, his Brazil tariffs are entirely designed to punish Brazil because they aren't treating his far right political friend the way he would like.
Seriously!
We have a positive trade balance with Brazil!
Trump’s tariff tsunami hits Brazil Brazil is pursuing partners across the globe, turning pressure into opportunity. Could Europe play a pivotal role?
https://www.ips-journal.eu/topics/economy-and-ecology/trumps-tariff-tsunami-hits-brazil-8512/
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Trumps tariffs are backfiring catastrophically in every way, shape and form but this was 100% certain to happen because of the indisputable principles of global economics involving free trade between countries.
His insane tariffs not only hurt both the US and all of our trading partners, but he has broken the law by imposing them. Our trading partners are REPLACING the US by forming new trading relationships with other countries. It's a fact that means long lived permanent damage.
More delusional tariffs!
Started by metmike - Sept. 14, 2025, 5:51 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/114673/
I found the right command!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/live-cattle
1. 10 years
2. 1 year
3. 1 month
Beef prices have been increasing LONG before Trump imposed his irrational tariffs on Brazil. He might have made it worse with the supply shortage but didn't cause it and certainly isn't responsible for much of the dynamic causing ranchers to have the better profit margins currently compared to the past as he claims.
High likelihood of live cattle futures topping this past week!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/live-cattle
1. 1 Day: Opened slightly lower at 8am then crashed lower. From 10am on it was mostly LOCK LIMIT DOWN, which is where it closed. Look for a gap lower start on Monday! This source doesn't do the greatest job depicting that.
I checked all the way thru Feb 2027 (which has extremely low volume) and every contract closed lock limit down, so yes, there should be a gap lower on Monday at 8:30 am. The volume for the front month today was 47,000. Not sure how that compares to average. When a contract trades locked limit, the volume can go waaay down because there aren't enough buyers(in this case) to generate trades to match with the overwhelming sellers.
2. 1 week: There it is!
3. 1 month: Double top on this short term chart
4. 1 year: Powerful top formation. We couldn't break thru the up trend or support from the previous low today because the market was stuck at limit down. This will likely happen with the gap lower open on Monday.
cutworm,
Thanks for starting this thread last week. On an impressive day like today, it provides us with a unique insight into this market!
Opened at 8:30am close to unch then spiked down. The Feb-26 contract dropped below the regular limit because we have expanded limits today but bounced a bit. Very powerful top formation but it could be another bull flag.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/live-cattle
1. 1 week: Opened at red dash.
2. 1 year: Previous highs and lows. Significant resistance and support. We are sure to break that and downward is the most likely path.
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9:38 am: That didn't take long! The Feb 2026 contract is getting decimated(and so are the other contracts out to Feb 2027). Not sure what the expanded limit is today but it might hit that level at this rate.
I guess the front month is holding up better(but still down sharply) by high cash prices???? I don't trade this market so that's a guess.
No telling where the price will go from here.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/live-cattle
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https://ca.news.yahoo.com/cattle-ranchers-react-beef-prices-154625576.html
Trump also seemed to talk about cattle ranchers directly in an Oct. 22 Truth Social post, saying they were doing well due to his tariffs and calling on them to lower prices.
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Trump with more delusional lies. Claiming that cattle ranchers are doing so well because of his 50% tariffs on Brazil(acknowledging that his ruinous tariffs increase prices in the US)but not being honest.
Meat packers in the US have to pay that 50% tariff on the beef from Brazil but they pass that on to consumers, who pay the higher prices.........and consumers end up buying less beef overall because of it.
Trump is punishing Brazil with his 100% illegal tariff of 50% on them because he doesn't like how they are treating his far right political friend.
He wants to buy beef from Argentina to help his far right political friend there too. This is also why he's bailing them out with 40 billion in tax payers money.
This is more egregious, corrupt political loony tunes from a president that is motivated by personal agenda and limited Constitutional guardrails from an R Congress that has ceded their power to him!!
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https://www.britannica.com/topic/Why-Is-the-US-Bailing-Out-Argentina
Loans to Argentina are likely to demand tighter terms and stronger collateral, given the country’s track record. Since joining the IMF in 1956, Argentina has entered into 23 IMF programs to stabilize its economy. Despite that level of intervention, the country has defaulted on its external debt nine times in its modern history—three times since 2001 alone. Its history of loan defaults and coordinated international bailouts may explain why lenders remain wary and why any new arrangement—swap, loan, or otherwise—is unlikely to succeed without lasting economic reform.
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Despite new tariffs and ongoing trade negotiations, US beef imports from Brazil hit a record 197 million pounds in January 2025, up from 7 million in January 2020. JBS, the world’s largest meat company, helped power the surge as the US herd shrank.
If Trump was smart and honest he would have dropped the added 50% tariff on beef from Brazil, our #1 source of foreign beef which has added greatly to the price consumers pay because US packers are paying that tariff and passing that on to US consumers.
Trump didn’t cause this supply side driven price crisis, but his ruinous tariffs applied with no consistent rationale are unquestionably making it MUCH worse, even as he brags about doing the exact opposite.
He is clueless about the principles of global trading and economics and benefits of free trade and continues to double down on destructive tariffs that are isolating the United States as our trading partners replace our business with new arrangements between themselves.
This is not speculative. It is happening and doing long term damage to our country.
It is costing us production jobs and doing the complete,opposite of Trumps fairy tale of bringing back production to the US.
Many Companies, actually are avoiding new investments in the US BECAUSE OF Trump. Any deals that might be made, like the ones he has made with others can be ripped up overnight for some impulsive delusional,Trump,absurd reason so not only is his word worth almost nothing, signed legal agreements are also worth almost nothing with him and the world knows it.
