The last thread was getting pretty long!
Previous threads:
A word of caution
81 responses |
Started by kris - Sept. 24, 2025, 10:47 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/114902/
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Previous thread:
S & P 500 futures.
47 responses |
Started by mikempt - March 31, 2025, 10:17 a.m.
These were the last posts at those threads to start off the thinking on this new one:
By kris - Oct. 21, 2025, 11:49 p.m.
The DJI and the DJT closed above last weeks' highs today; final gasp maybe ?
Neither the NQ ES or RT followed suit but instead stayed in a rather narrow range which makes today very vulnerable both up or down ....
(he's still whittling .... }
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By kris - Oct. 21, 2025, 11:56 p.m.
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By kris - Oct. 21, 2025, 11:59 p.m.
The above chart of the daily NQ shows my L to L and H to H counts , both come up with today Tuesday and tomorrow Wednesday as being potential highs, we shall soon have resolution ... !
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By metmike - Oct. 22, 2025, 8:14 p.m.
Here was the latest today, a down day!
What do you think, kris?
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
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By metmike - Oct. 23, 2025, 7:21 p.m.
I continue to be amazed that the rich people's Ponzi Scheme and their power in being able to control a self fulfilling prophesy, with Trump's policies benefiting them and AI acting as fuel is keeping the stock market up here.
Major tops in most markets usually don't end by treading water for so many days close to record highs like this, then suddenly failing but anything is possible here. I think kris's assessment is probably right based on history and fundamentals. However, a manipulated market doesn't need to follow any of that.
The government shut down and lack of economic data could be part of the market being so quiet here. I've not looked at volume recently but might guess that its reduced with the reduced volatility and lack of big moves expected at near record high prices.
Lots of uncertainty for sure, including mine!
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
Amazingly long pause at and just below record highs, technically looks like a continuation pattern/bull flag.
News could break us in either direction. News of the government shut down ending would take us to the upside since the extended shut down, negative tariff and economic news has somehow been unable to keep us down.......so far.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: A word of caution
By metmike - Oct. 24, 2025, 9:36 a.m.
Upside breakout to the bull flag(wedge) pattern identified yesterday.
Bull/bear flags are continuation patterns(temporary pauses in the trend).
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
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By gedigan - Oct. 24, 2025, 8:45 a.m.
NQ quarterly chart
How many pay attention to this timeframe?
Kinda cuts out lower time frame noise
New highs this am
Thanks, gedigan. Nice chart.
Welcome back!
Closed near the highs and at an all time record!
Typically when this happens, Trump is the most likely to display especially unhinged behavior because he interprets stock market highs as a positive reinforcement signal from the rich people he cares about that he should double down on whatever he's been doing.
I am dead serious!!
"THE STOCK MARKET IS STRONGER THAN EVER BEFORE BECAUSE OF TARIFFS!" Trump wrote on Truth Social.
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This is the truth about tariffs:
More delusional tariffs!
28 responses |
Started by metmike - Sept. 14, 2025, 5:51 p.m.
I hadn't been following close and didn't realize that Trump was going to China this week. This is THE OBVIOUS REASON for the stock market to hit new highs at the end of last week!!!!
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-asia-trip-china-10-26-25
Not surprising, a big gap higher after the stock market and rich people's mouth piece gave it/them a positive signal with good news about China.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
1, 1 week: gap higher. Fridays high lower red line. Sunday nights open upper red line.
2. 1 month: Bull flag, breaking out to the upside on Friday. New record highs.
3. 1 year: Bull flag. We can see close to a half dozen bull flag type signatures since early April. All continuation patterns with upside break outs to new highs that resumed the uptrend which has actually been accelerating upward on some time frames.
4. 10 years: Parabolic/exponential move higher. Up trend line getting steeper and steeper. This is not sustainable but its impossible to know the exact point when it will come crashing down.
Never mind the government shut down! That's being designed to target POOR people.
By metmike - Oct. 26, 2025, 7:16 p.m.
We are holding the gap higher open from Sunday Night. If we close that gap, it would be a pretty powerful gap and crap buying exhaustion formation at a record high.
I copied the verbiage for the explanation from this source to tell us what's important in this market right now for a reason.
Can you tell what's funny about it?
President Biden is in China right now
By kris - Oct. 28, 2025, 7:43 p.m.
"He's whittling on a piece of wood, when he's done whittling, I'm afraid something is going to happen .......... "
"irrational exuberance"
This market environment beats the dotcom bubble, how long can it last ?
If today's high doesn't hold then maybe tomorrow's [potential] high will, the Fed rate decision could be the catalyst for many weeks to come.
If tomorrow turns out to be another low then the first week of November could be a decisive "tell" !
"stay thirsty my friends"
Thanks, kris!!!
Earlier this year, I would never have guessed the stock market would be doing this in the midst of the current dynamics. However, it is. I believe that this bubble is going to pop, probably soon similar to your thoughts but am just following what the market is saying and not what I think should be happening.
Surging to new highs again today with more irrational exuberance. The Fed will cut interest rates as expected. Will this be a buy the rumor-sell the fact trigger for the start of a correction?
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
1. 1 week: Pretty much sustained, aggressive buying that is overwhelming the selling orders.
2. 1 month: Huge upside break out last Friday is in the rear view mirror.. That will serve as support on the way down but I suspect, a trigger for any correction, because this market is SO out of whack and unbalanced with incredibly over extended speculative longs that it will cause it to fly thru support like a hot knife thru butter.
On both graphs below, I forgot to mark the gap higher which is the straight up line in the middle of the first chart and towards the right, above the upside breakout of the bull flag/wedge. Filling that gap would be a gap and crap type signature which is a buying exhaustion indicator.
its especially powerful at the top of long lived moves higher and when the exhaustion gap is filled quickly. Several days later is not exactly quickly but it would be one heck of a warning signal to the bulls!
Put another way, a solid close below the previous record high, around 6750 on this index could be the start of a major drop lower.
In almost every other market it would be deadly but the stock market does not follow those rules.
Red line shows when the Fed announced the 1/4 point rate cut. As expected we saw some buy the rumor/sell the fact price action. This puts in a small downside reversal on the daily bar. Future hikes are in doubt so if rate cuts were fuel for the stock market rally, that element has been taken away right now.
Also, the bullish news with regards to China has probably been dialed in.
This would make normal, unmanipulated markets that trade on key fundamentals and true valuations very vulnerable to the downside.
However, the stock market has rejected that as, instead the rich people's Ponzi Scheme trades on a self fulfilling prophesy that controls money flows.
I put the gap higher from Sunday Night in this 1 week chart. Closing below that would potentially be an ominous sign!
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
The above chart shows the NQ daily as of today's close.
The pitchforks from the August and October lows are at or close to an intersecting juncture.
I'll repeat though: if today's high does not hold we'll have to wait till the first week of November for the next high which could just be a higher high if (again) today's high holds for a few days only ... !
Trade safe everyone !
Thanks very much, kris!
I totally understand why you would be looking for THE top here!
The above chart is the monthly Dow Jones Transports, typically a harbinger of things to come ... stay tuned !
Thanks, kris! I'm guessing that you will be right.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
Gap from last weeks close to this weeks open on the right. Previous highs below that.
Filling the gap is a buying exhaustion signal(gap and crap).
Closing below the previous highs adds even more technical/chart bearish fuel to that.
Starting to erode the top of the potential buying exhaustion gap!
This could finally be it, kris!
"Starting to erode the top of the potential buying exhaustion gap!
This could finally be it, kris!"
It could be and we'll know for sure after the first week of November ...
We tested the top of the gap near the end of the session yesterday and uncovered enough speculative buying at that level to bounce back. Despite having so many reasons to go down, the stock market continues to be controlled by bullish speculators.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
Oh, Oh! Poised to fill the gap higher that started this week as we end this week, which would confirm it as an exhaustion gap and a market that ran out of new bulls/fresh buying at the higher prices.
This is the 2nd attempt in the last 24 hours to fill it. The recovery after the 1st attempt was pretty feeble.
However, this is a self fulfilling prophesy/rich speculators Ponzi scheme and the market with 9+ lives. Fundamentals and valuations don't apply, neither do interpretations of technicals/charts using classical principles.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
