I hate to part ways with what was probably the best trading forum thread or any thread at MarketForum EVER going back 2+ decades.
Several posts of the week and Hall of Fame posts by several posters.
However, that one was also near record length and its time to move on.
Stock Market 10-24-25
74 responses |
Started by metmike - Oct. 24, 2025, 9:42 a.m
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/115443/
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I'll start this new thread off, with the last message on the old thread:
1 like
By metmike - Nov. 10, 2025, 7:27 a.m.
Everybody posting in this thread shares the same love of ANALYSIS AND BEING BLESSED WITH ANALYTICAL MINDS!
Trading provides a wonderful challenge for us to exploit our analytical minds. Making money is the objective and also the metric to judge our success but it goes beyond that! It's something inside of us that drives how we think. Many human beings thrive on competition and trading provides that opportunity to compete against and in the market with the "Composite Man" as Wyckoff referred to as everybody in the market's thinking and acting combined at one time.
tjc has mentioned this aspect of trading that drives his love for it.
The above chart is the NQ hourly as of right now.
The gap up on Sunday's globex session was simply a continuation of the buy thrust from Friday; buying on Friday continued strongly in the futures market after the cash close (that was your "sign")
The NQ is currently pausing after hitting the 4.236 extension from the early Friday thrust, we may see a bit of a correction since we are definitely in overbought territory, notice however how we blew through the initial 0.707 and 0.786 retracement levels = bullishness
Still a bad time to go short here imho.....
We may have a possible temp short coming up as I'll explain with the next chart
The above chart is the ES hourly
After the Friday upthrust we gapped up here as well
We again saw a powerful upthrust in the morning when the market came back to test the 1.618 extension level from the Friday lows, coinciding with the 50% retracement from high to low (ding ding ding ...)
There is a point of interest on this chart at the 0.786 retracement and 2.618 extension confluence roughly within a point and a half from one another
That may provide the first selling point in this upthrust ....
I still would be hesitant to go heavily short though, we're not at that point yet imho
Trade safe my friends !
The above chart is the ES December contract showing the same area highlighted on the ES continuous contract above it, just for reference ...
Thanks for the comprehensive update, kris!!!
https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/11/13/stock-market-soar-if-court-rejects-trumps-tariffs/
President Trump warns of an economic disaster similar to the Great Depression if the Supreme Court rejects his authority to impose tariffs
However, Trump may have exceeded his authority because the IEEPA does not explicitly authorize tariffs. Indeed, three different courts have already ruled the tariffs illegal, including the U.S. Court of International Trade, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, and a federal district court in Washington, D.C. The issue now sits in front of the Supreme Court.
Maybe Trump bragging about how he's caused the stock market to make 49 highs this year on Wednesday evening, including yesterday(according to him) was the kiss of death
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-doing-something-does-114900450.html
Above is the current state of the Nasdaq hourly and daily [continuous contract], charts are pretty self explanatory ...
We may see a reaction to the upside at today's cash open ...
Trade safe my friends !
The above chart is the NQ December contract
Until and unless we close above the retracements and extensions on the chart the trend will resume down
We do have what looks like a bull flag formation but be wary of traps (up or down) !!!
I mention at times that the markets like round numbers: the December contract is at 25300 while the continuous contract is at 25200 ..... !?!
Thanks very much kris!
I'm amazed that the way over valued, self fulfilling prophesy, rich person's ponzi scheme refuses to die!
metmike, I too view forced participation in Social Security a ponzi scheme. BUT, what's a pour girl to do?
Looking at the chart ya have to ask? Would Jessie Livermore be long the market?
I'd like to update the chart posted last Aug. 25th (note; adjusted fib anchor pts. to reflect actual high/low)
Friday's spring, I'm looking for the uptrend to continue as long as we stay above the blue shaded wick.

Thanks, gedigan!
The trend is your friend and it's still up which would seem to be the most likely direction, especially considering the markets resilience in the face of so many reasons to go down.
If a market refuses to go down on bearish news, it's telling you something. However, even the stock market has a limit for ignoring bearish news and there's plenty more to come.
Regardless, I'm an energy/crops trader and you're the expert on the stock market. Your wonderful contributions are greatly appreciated.
Thank you, I appreciate that. Expert is too strong a word for what I do. I'm here to share what I see and understand, so others can gain value.
Things could get pretty ugly here! Unless the self fulfilling prophesy, speculative troops come to the rescue again at key support..........which they have been doing over and over and over.
If not, the stock market cat bull with 9X lives finally dies.
1. 1 year
2. 1 month
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
joj had speculated on the potential of the stock market putting in a buy the rumor, sell the news type top early last week and it appears that he was right(a couple of days later).
1. 1 week: Top/left, Trump signs bill to open the government and brags about his policies causing 49 new highs in the stock market this year, including that day. And the market has gone DOWN every since!
2. 1 month: Breaking down, follow thru from top formation. (LOWER top last week after news that the government was opening back up ).
3. 1 year: Major top formation? Left/bottom spike low: Trump announces ruinous tariffs policy April 2, 2025.
4. We could still hold here and start the next move up, with this "correction" being just another bull flag in a very long lived continuation pattern.



https://www.economist.com/interactive/trump-approval-tracker/economy
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
1. 1 week. Huge rally today. Are the short term lows in? Was this just another bull flag? Dead cat bounce?
2. 1 month: Potential bull flag or a potential top and this is the new downtrend channel. The recent history favors the bull flag which will need new highs to verify.
3. 1 year: Held major support. Bull flag? Downtrend channel? Red lines on a graph can only tell us how the market reacted in the past to the current price. There is more than 1 potential outcome and right now, one can make a case for the bears or the bulls still.
4. 10 years: Parabolic, exponential move(steepening slope up of the move) that can't go on forever as it distances itself from authentic intrinsic valuations and ignores bad economic reality news.... but it can go on indefinitely as long as money keeps flowing in.




I believe the bulk of today’s rally is being supported by NVDA’s very bullish earnings/revenues report released yesterday after close.
Thanks, Larry! All good thoughts like this are welcome.
The market has spoken. The charts tell us the highs are in and the bears have control and this was a dead cat bounce.......until further notice:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
1. 1 month: Apparent downtrend channel.
2. 10 years: This drop is still just a small blip at the top. It still could be just another bull flag and continuation pattern. However, as I've been pointing out for 3 months now, the stock market has some really bad ju ju going against it. I've been surprised that its been holding up this well! Regardless, despite my big bearish personal bias, I might be wrong and will never let the personal bias impact the chart analysis.

NVDA earnings report was bullish. Mkt opens higher and tanks. That's classic bearish action.
Thanks, joj!
Great point. I trust your instincts and analysis of observations on the stock market a great deal.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
1. 1 year: A longer term bull could get excited about today's bounce higher. Maybe this is another bull flag and we just bounced off of support???
2. 1 month: Don't include me in that group, even though that is still possible. Every single bounce the past month has resulted in selling kicking in at lower prices.
3. 1 month: Instead of bull flags, I see a bunch of short term BEAR flags/wedges with selling that kicks in at lower and lower prices. One can see numerous "waves" going down with lower crests dominating. I used red lines to show just 2 of the bearish wedges/triangles the past month.



The above chart is the NQ daily, we still have not closed below the 10/10 low but we're getting close
The market has traded within the pitchfork and I suspect that more downside is to come ...
Trade safe friends !
Thanks a ton, kris!
We are totally in sync with our views, along with joj!