Previous thread:
USDA September 12, 2025/Grains
78 responses |
Started by metmike - Sept. 12, 2025, 4:01 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/114629/
The trade is certain that U.S. corn yield will decline from the September levels on Friday, but that's not the case with soybeans (some see yield rising). Analysts peg the U.S. corn crop up 13.5% on the 5yr production average, but the soy crop is seen 0.7% below.
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Very wide estimate ranges for U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks on Friday, driven by varying ideas of both production and demand. Just looking at the average trade guesses (i.e. they are very similar to Sept) doesn't tell the whole story.
Conab updated Brazilian S&D on Thursday - negligible changes to soy and corn. USDA is updating on Friday. Biggest diffs w/ Conab are on corn. FYI, USDA's last estimates (mmt): 24/25 corn - 135 24/25 beans - 169 25/26 corn - 131 25/26 beans - 175
South America weather matters big now.
I just checked the long range forecast for the next 46 days from the European model Weeklies. Holy Cow!!!
This model has a drought in Argentina and S. Brazil. Maybe this is part of why the beans shot higher a few weeks ago?
This forecast has most of the Argentina crop at high risk of severe drought and around 20-25% of the Brazil crop in the south. Beans have clearly made MAJOR lows but this could really launch prices higher.
The map below is CUMULATIVE rain anomalies or the next 46 days.
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/default.aspx?id=BR
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Brazil/Municipality/Brazil_Soybean.png
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/default.aspx?id=AR
Recent rains in South America. It's been dry in Brazil but their rainy season(monsoon) usually kicks in right around now. Argentina looks ok from what I can tell.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.30day.figb.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.90day.figb.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.180day.figb.gif
The USDA WASDY report today at 11 central time
USDA Flash sales reports from during the shutdown will be released at the same time. This is what the market will be watching for Chinese business.
A lot of info in a short time, Extra volatility
opinion: someone has been buying beans, will this be a buy the roomer sell the fact. Or do we go higher???
nov beans go off the board yesterday jan beans have some carry. That could leave a gap on the continuous chart which could leave an island reversal on the chart.
Thanks, cutworm!
Clearly bearish compared to expectations!!!!
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US corn and soybean yields come down from September, corn by less than expected.
U.S. corn stocks are slightly higher than in Sept (smaller crop, bigger exports, bigger carry-in). Beans are slightly smaller - smaller crop, smaller exports, smaller carry-in).
USDA increased 24/25 Brazil and Argentina soybean production and 24/25 Brazil corn production.
I believe the huge drought for Argentina, shown above is playing a major role in the beans leaping higher today after a small gap lower open last night that was immediately filled. Beans going to China, of course are the main headlines.
1pm: This was the latest, with the updates coming in mid afternoon, the one for today not out yet.
These are the total rain anomalies between now and January 1, 2026 from the European Ensemble weeklies.
Seasonals are VERY strong this time of year, recovering from harvest spike lows typically.
https://equityclock.com/seasonality/
https://equityclock.com/charts/
https://charts.equityclock.com/corn-futures-c-seasonal-chart
https://charts.equityclock.com/soybeans-futures-s-seasonal-chart
https://charts.equityclock.com/wheat-futures-w-seasonal-chart
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https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/soybeans
1. 1 day: Top line was the release of the bearish USDA report on Friday. Bottom line was the Sunday night, small gap open lower. Filled and then straight up for +35c without any corrections. Now ABOVE the pre report high.
2. 1 year: Major breakout above a wedge pattern
3. 10 years: Major break out from the wedge, above long term resistance.
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The analysis from a month ago was anticipating this that included cutworm:
Re: Re: USDA September 12, 2025/Grains
By metmike - Oct. 20, 2025, 4:30 p.m.
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Re: USDA September 12, 2025/Grains
By metmike - Oct. 26, 2025, 11:25 p.m.
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Re: Re: Re: USDA September 12, 2025/Grains
By metmike - Oct. 28, 2025, 11:39 p.m.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: USDA September 12, 2025/Grains
By metmike - Oct. 30, 2025, 3:03 p.m.
The White House's official stance is that China will book 12 mmt of U.S. soybeans in Nov-Dec. Let's be generous and say China has bought 1 mmt so far. Starting today through the end of the year (incl. holidays/wknds), China must buy 3.5-4 cargoes PER DAY to fulfill this.
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This comes directly from Trump, so the complete opposite is more likely!
MASSIVE U.S. corn export inspections last week - according to my quick check, this is roughly the sixth best week on record since 1982. Nothing at all inspected for China, and bean inspections were down 48% from the same week last year.
Corn and beans look like they switched seasons. Over 10 mmt of beans inspected so far in 2025/26 as of Nov. 13. As of Sep. 25, total sales were at 11.9 mmt. How much of the sales ledger has been shipped so far is a mystery and will remain that way for weeks, unfortunately.
2 week rain departures from the last 12z European Ensemble model. It's still early in the growing season but the deficits include almost of of Argentina's key soybean growing areas as well as maybe, potentially 15-20% of Brazil.
This pattern is likely to continue in December from the La Nina but that can change.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAVS9TSMQM8
Thanks, Eric!
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China imported more corn in Oct 2025 than Oct 2024, but YTD imports are down 90% on the year. Soybean imports are up 6.4% anchored by massive Brazilian arrivals, but most other imports - particularly grains - are down sharply from last year.
Large wheat, corn and soymeal export sales were seen in the week ended Oct. 2.
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USDA confirms the sale of 462,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China in 2025/26. A sale of 132,000 tons of U.S. white wheat was also confirmed for delivery to China in 2025/26.
Thanks, Matt!!!
Nov 20, 2025: TX Flood Threat | Holiday Week Cold Front | Nor'Easter? | Pacific Ridge Dominates
Eric was in with the weather today! Excellent presentation!
