The current La Nina continues to TEMPORARILY cool global temperatures with it's cooler, tropical Pacific water temperatures. 

The forecast is for this fairly weak La Nina to start warming soon, evolving to neutral conditions by next Spring, continuing towards weak El Nino as the year goes on.

La Nina's usually have an adverse impact on our growing seasons(hot/dry) El Nino's are associated with wetter growing seasons and favorable weather, so this is a positive outlook for the Cornbelt next year. The more El Nino-ish/ less La Nina-ish, the better the analogs are. 

ENSO: Recent Evolution,
Current Status and Prediction

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Here are the ENSO neutral analogs for next year.

ENSO Neutral: Trend Adjusted Precipitation

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/prcp-ta/clickmap.prcp.ta.neutral.html

Indiana: ABOVE average rains with green bars for next Summer.

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Illinois: Average rain

Iowa:  ABOVE average rain

Ohio: Near equal odds

Here's another site with some analogs for ENSO neutral. You can adjust the settings to whatever ENSO state and month you want to look at. This is June and July below:

https://hprcc.unl.edu/agroclimate/cpv.php

Long range forecasting skill is not great and even lower for neutral events. 

                Death by GREENING!            

                            52 responses |   

                Started by metmike - May 11, 2021, 2:31 p.m.  

          https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/

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       National Climate Emergency??????????!!!!!!!!!!!            

                            37 responses |      

                Started by 12345 - April 24, 2024, 8:25 p.m.        

    https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/103492/

Hey Mike,

 I thought this would be the best place to put this instead of starting another GW thread. I think we were speculating about the real possibility that Hunga Tonga was the main reason for the sudden increase in global temps in 2023. However, this says it wasn’t that at all and that that volcano actually even lead to slight cooling! This is a post made at the American wx board. I haven’t had time to read what’s at the 2 links:

“Hunga Tonga volcano assessment report is out. Large effect on stratosphere but relatively small effect at surface: 

Professor Maycock said, "The Report shows that although water vapor is a greenhouse gas, Hunga had a net cooling effect overall and did not cause the record level of global warming observed in 2023 and 2024. This is a very important finding as understanding what caused the recent surge in global warming is a priority for the climate science community."

https://phys.org/news/2025-12-international-reveals-atmospheric-impact-hunga.html

https://juser.fz-juelich.de/record/1049154/files/Hunga_APARC_Report_full.pdf?version=1

Thanks very much, Larry!

Great post and topic...........more comments later