Trump threatens Mexico with 5% tariff increase over water dispute

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/08/trump-threatens-mexico-with-5percent-tariff-increase-over-water-dispute.html

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Rio Grande: Cooperation and Conflict with
Mexico

https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R45430.pdf

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DROUGHT MONITOR

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

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Multi-year drought and heat waves across Mexico in 2024

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/multi-year-drought-and-heat-waves-across-mexico-2024

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Drought and the Rio Grande Aquifer

https://archleague.org/drought-and-the-rio-grande-aquifer/

1. Population and agriculture expansion on both sides of the border have greatly increased the needs for water compared to when we signed this agreement.

2. There has been more recent drought.

3. The aquifers in the region have been drawn down from over use and poor water management, exacerbating the crisis. 

4. The average climate in this area is a desert like climate.  People and agriculture have OVER developed based on what this area can support with their extremely dry climate.

5.  Mexico isn't "holding out" on us. They too are suffering severe drought and not enough water to meet the needs of Northern Mexico. 

6. The US also has an agreement with Mexico where we share the water from the Colorado River with them. The US has been cutting off that water to punish Mexico for not providing the water in the Rio Grande watershed.

Lower Rio Grande Valley

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lower_Rio_Grande_Valley

Dry in the Rio Grande Basin

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/153230/dry-in-the-rio-grande-basin#:~:text=Since%20summer%202023%2C%20one%20of%20the%20most,mandatory%20water%20restrictions%20for%20residents%20and%20businesses.

1. Top image is 2016

2. Bottom image is 2024

This is the latest soil moisture map for that area:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/Mex_CA/monthly_maps.shtml

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/Mex_CA/monthly/w.a_area.gif

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The greens/positive anomalies above in Central Mexico were mostly from this flooding event in early October:

Heavy rainfall leading to widespread flooding in eastern Mexico disproportionately impacts highly exposed Indigenous and socially vulnerable communities

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-rainfall-leading-to-widespread-flooding-in-eastern-mexico-disproportionately-impacts-highly-exposed-indigenous-and-socially-vulnerable-communities/#:~:text=The%20states%20of%20Veracruz%2C%20Puebla%2C%20Hidalgo%2C%20Quer%C3%A9taro%2C,*%20**Expanding%20informal%20settlements%20in%20flood%2Dprone%20areas**

1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty: Issues in the 119th Congress

https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12976

If Mexico fails to meet its minimum Rio Grande flow obligations for a cycle because of extraordinary drought—a term not defined in the 1944 Water Treaty or in any minute—it must replace the deficiency during the next five-year cycle.

Concerns about Mexico's repeated occasions of not meeting five-year cycle delivery requirements, and the consequences for the Texas economy, have led some U.S. stakeholders to support the establishment, monitoring, and application of mechanisms to achieve a more reliable and predictable water-delivery regime. Article 24(d) of the 1944 Water Treaty provides mechanisms for dispute resolution if Mexico fails to meet its minimum flow obligations and the countries dispute that an extraordinary drought existed. In early April 2025 on social media, President Trump raised the prospects of sanctions and tariffs when discussing Mexico's water deliveries relative to the amounts specified in the treaty. While Mexico's internal water management influences deliveries, other factors that may contribute to delivery shortfalls under recent cycles identified by stakeholders include drought conditions in portions of Mexico's Rio Grande basin and weather and climate patterns. In late April 2025, the U.S. Department of State announced that Mexico had committed to reducing its shortfall in deliveries and to working with the United States to develop a plan to make up the remaining shortfall and make more dependable deliveries in the next cycle. IBWC data indicate an uptick in deliveries in calendar year (CY) 2025, compared to CYs 2023 and 2024.

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Note the part of the treaty that I put in bold.

Trump is instead demanding that, despite their severe drought that they meet the obligations immediately before this 5 year term is up or else.....................his 5%  tariff will punish American companies and American consumers with 5% higher prices for products that we buy from Mexico.

We should note that this is a sign that shows Donald Trump realizes the damage that his tariffs have caused and how unpopular they are, despite not acknowledging that. How do we know?

Note just a 5% tariff on Mexico.

In the past he never issued tariffs in increments of less than 10%. For issues like this, it was almost always 50%. Brazil was a great example. That one really backfired because our trade deficit with them IS POSITIVE(the polar opposite of the trade emergency he claims the tariffs are for) and it caused bananas, OJ, coffee and other prices from products that we get from Brazil to skyrocket here. And he knows it because he took the tariff off!

So now, when Mexico sends us some water he will claim...........looky here everybody, I told you that tariffs work!