WxFollower shows us the profound weather forecast model BUSTS from being MUCH too warm the past 90 days in the East and actually, its been longer than that.

                Re: NG 12/14+            

                            By WxFollower - Dec. 23, 2025, 11:53 a.m.            

 We’ve been discussing that the models have been too warm in the E US in week 2 quite often since Thanksgiving week. Well, here are some maps clearly showing that for all 3 major ensembles that has been the case averaged out over the last 90 days even more than I realized: this is crazy, especially when one realizes this goes back to Oct and even late Sept, when misses are typically smaller due to typically lower variance. So, this implies that if there were a 30 day map that the too warm misses might be even larger.

1. EE last 90 days in last 11-15:

2. GEFS last 90 days in 11-15:

3. GEPS last 90 days in 11-15: The avg too warm miss is smaller. But, this is more significant than it looks like because the CMC is cold biased/the coldest model of the 3 on avg. That’s why it hasn’t been as far off. So, if even the cold biased GEPS has been too warm in the E US, that’s saying a lot!

So, with the 11-15 day models having been too warm so consistently, the NG market may start to react as much to them when they’re warm. Maybe that’s what’s going on today?

 Also, the HDD for 12/28-31 are still much higher than they were on many of last week’s runs. Maybe NG is realizing that further today and also realizing this cokder corrections change to week 2 may continue.