In a big way, Larry and I know that we can often look at how natural gas is reacting (or has reacted) to know what the temperature forecast changes were and are. 

It makes following the latest weather models as they come out at the same time natural gas is reacting to them tremendous fun and challenging and is also a way to make a lot of money for speculators using this information to position themselves in the natural gas market AHEAD of the price moves based on changes in the weather forecast. 

Here are parts of 2 especially detailed, recent posts that describe that impact.

This is the GOLDEN RULE for trading natural gas based on CHANGES in the TEMPERATURE weather forecasts.

 There are exceptions but when these changes are powerful and especially when they trend in THE SAME direction, NG always moves in tandem. It may gyrate up and down along the way in an up or down channel but at certain times of year, it always follows the weather forecasts. 

WINTER/Cold season/HDD season

1. When temperatures get colder, natural gas prices go higher.

2. When temperatures get warmer, natural gas prices go lower.

SUMMER/Heat season/CDD season. A complete flip in the impact of cold/warm.

1. When temperatures get colder, natural gas prices go LOWER.

2. When temperatures get warmer/HOTTER, natural gas prices go HIGHER.

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                Re: Re: Re: Re: NG 10/9/25+           

                         By metmike - Oct. 10, 2025, 8:07 p.m.            

            Natural gas price charts.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

2. 1 year: 

a. 2 strong uptrend channels from last Winters cold. Major market top in March 2025.

b. Late Spring/early Summer uptrend channel from Spring positive seasonal along with widespread intense heat forecasts for the Summer of 2025.

c. Downtrend channel that accelerated in late August from huge pattern change to widespread near record cool temps(and low electricity use for AC use,  generated by burning natural gas)

d. Bottom ahead of positive Fall seasonal and late season heat returning with elevated CDDs. 

e. Prices at the very end have plunged again as late season heat has turned from bullish to bearish. Rapidly increasing average HDDs pass up rapidly dropping CDDs on October 4th but every year is different. The VERY warm forecasts this week are now BEARISH weather.

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                Re: NG 12/14+           

                            By metmike - Dec. 25, 2025, 10:29 p.m.            

            Lower open with an immediate $1,000 spike up this evening:

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

1.  1 week: Tuesday's biggest gain in 3 years, with a $5,000/contract wide range in the center after models turned sharply colder.  On the right is the open tonight. 

2. 1 month: Uptrend leading to the blow off top on December 5(after a month long uptrend peaked with the most extreme cold(Polar Vortex) yet forecast that day. Steep move down -$15,000/contract in 7 trading sessions from a pattern change to much warmer, followed by sideways bottoming, then models turned sharply colder early this week.

3. 1 year: False break out above March highs/resistance. Sharp downtrend late in Summer with near record cool temps late August/early September. Bottom in September/October. Sharp move up in November from colder and colder temps.  Blow off top December 5 with EXTREME coldest yet, Polar Vortex and peak in bullishness.  -$15,000/contract in 7 trading sessions from much warmer weather forecasts. Price recovery this week from weather forecasts turning colder again.