This was the previous thread:
USDA Grains 11-13-25
54 responses |
Started by metmike - Nov. 13, 2025, 3:59 p.m.
The USDA report today was a huge bearish shocker! Not sure what the USDA was thinking but it lines up with their many other past shockers that seem to defy reality, suggesting motives to create shockers to benefit their friends who are positioned before the release.
I have 0 solid proof of that. Just tons of repeated patterns of circumstantial evidence from somebody gifted in interpreting data.
·
U.S. corn production comes in above expectations, soybean production lands slightly above.
U.S. corn stocks come in at the high end of expectations with the larger crop. Soybean stocks are higher on lower exports, and wheat stocks were also higher on lower use.
U.S. corn harvested area was raised significantly from September, pushing production over 17 billion bushels. That's up 4.5 million acres since the June acreage survey, which is completely unprecedented.
Dec. 1 U.S. corn stocks land above all trade estimates. Soybean stocks were very close to expectations and wheat was safely above.
U.S. farmers planted a few more winter wheat acres than the trade expected, but area is still slightly down from a year ago.
·
U.S. corn harvested area comes in 1.3% above the September estimate on increases in both major and minor states. 91.26 million harvested corn acres is the highest since 1933.
2025 U.S. corn yield comes in at a record 186.5 bu/acre. Iowa and Illinois didn't do as well as previously expected, but plenty of other states, particularly Minnesota and North Dakota, notched very strong results.
U.S. corn harvested area comes in 1.3% above the September estimate on increases in both major and minor states. 91.26 million harvested corn acres is the highest since 1933.
2025 U.S. soybean yield ends up at a record 53 bu/acre. Nebraska was the highest yielding state at 65.5 bpa. Notable reductions in the I-states once again, but enough offset among the other producers to keep national yield unchanged from November.
++++++++++
The end of the 2025 growing season was not nearly as harsh as the end of the 2024 growing season, so we should not have expected huge cuts, like the ones which shocked us a year ago.
++++++++++++++++
USDA January 10, 2025/grains
Started by metmike - Jan. 10, 2025, 11:38 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/109451/#109481
By metmike - Jan. 10, 2025, noon
EXTREMELY BULLISH!!!!!!!!
+++++++++++++++++
However the amount of new crop that they suddenly discovered in January 2026 since the last report is a pretty bearish shocker.
USDA confirms the following U.S. export sales for delivery in 2025/26:
204,000 tons of soybeans to China110,000 tons of soybeans to unknown60,000 tons of soybeans to unknown (plus an extra 75kt for 26/27)260,000 tons of corn to Japan500,302 tons of corn to unknown
+++++++++++
U.S. corn export sales last week were the week's best in five years. Soybean sales were easily a record for the week (irregular purchase timing), China had 1.2 mmt. Cotton sales were a MY high (340k RB).
+++++++++++++
Conab reduced Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest by 1 mmt from last month citing lower yields. 176.1 mmt is still a record and is below USDA's latest estimate of 178 mmt.
+++++++++++++
KareNOPA Dec. 2025 U.S. crush:224.991 million bushels of soybeansUp 8.9% YOY; 2nd largest for any monthSlightly above avg trade est (224.809 mln)Soyoil stocks 1.642 bln lbs+33% YOY; largest since May 2024Below avg trade est (1.686 bln)
The weather in S.Brazil/Argentina has turned BULLISH!
Next 2 weeks rain anomalies from the 12z European Ensemble model.
Same model but thru early March:
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/default.aspx?id=BR
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Brazil/Municipality/Brazil_Soybean.png
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/default.aspx?id=AR
It looks like rains in that area that will dry out have been pretty good the past month, so they can hold out for awhile.
However, these maps below show that most of Brazil and Argentina have had below average rain with some spots having been well below average. It's hard to make a case for big yields considering the deficient rains.
The USDA in their last report a week ago INCREASED soybean production in Brazil. Unless they found a bunch of acres, this seems inconsistent with the rain amounts below.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.30day.figb.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.90day.figb.gif
The weather for Argentina and S.Brazil continues to be BULLISH.
These were the last 12z GEFS rain departures from average for the next 16 days.
Still bullish for Argentina growing areas but not AS bullish/dry as earlier this week. 2 week rain anomalies below from the 0z European Ensemble model.
Matt was in with our weather this morning!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCSTyJ2W7hg
Still modestly bullish for Argentina. These were 2 week rain anomalies from the last 12z European Ensemble model.
Still bullish Argentina weather. Possibly too much rain in S.Brazil.
1. 2 week rain departures from the last 0z European Ensemble model
2. Total rain departures into early March.
Awesome Eric was in with our weather on Friday!
Weather has turned bearish for Argentina.
1. 2 week Rain departures from the last 12z European Ensemble model. Slightly above average rain for Argentina now. Still a bit too much rain in central parts of Brazil.
2. Total rain departures thru mid March. Similar pattern continues.
