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NG 2/2/26-

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Started by WxFollower - Feb. 2, 2026, 1:18 a.m.

I hope MM doesn’t mind, but partially in honor of Ground Hog Day, I think it’s time for a new thread. I probably should have started it on Feb 1st.

Happy Ground Hog Day!

Mike,

The Desk has an average guess way up at -370! Median is -372! I believe this would be a record?

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Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 2, 2026, 1:49 a.m.

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Thanks, Larry!

Happy Groundhog Day!

Previous link:

NG 1/18/26

67 responses |

Started by metmike - Jan. 18, 2026, 4:47 p.m.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/117293/

+++++++++++++++

I'm adding the last several posts and link.

Re: Re: Re: NG 1/18/26

By metmike - Jan. 30, 2026, 5:26 p.m.

Weeks 3 and 4. More cold:

Seasonally, we've past the climatological mid point of Winter and coldest time of year ON AVERAGE. February looks to continue cold compared to average but probably not as cold as what we just experienced.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability

+++++++++++++++++

These were the 7 day temperatures for next Thursday's EIA report.

The coldest color bar on the anomaly map(2nd one) is -16 even though this extreme cold had -18 and -20 deg. F isotherms that were colder than the coldest color bar.

Since this was also just past our coldest time of year and the cold impact some high population density regions, the EIA drawdown number next week will be massive.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

Compare that to temperatures from yesterday's report (below) that featured a -242 Bcf draw down.

Will the EIA next Thursday be more than -300 Bcf? What do you think Larry? How many have been that big before?

++++++++++++++++++

The 12z European Ensemble model (purple/left) had -6 HDDs compared to the previous 0z run, which caused a small drop but NG was on a tear higher today because of the cold February forecast and the fact that March is priced pretty low vs the February that just expired/went off the board.

Next weeks EIA storage number will be a massive draw down.

By metmike - Jan. 31, 2026, 4:12 p.m.

Holy Cow! This last 12z GEFS (purple/left) was incredibly milder in week 2.

The European Ensemble was also milder but not by this magnitude. The NG price was +$5,000/contract and closed on the highs on Friday suggesting a gap higher open on Sunday Night but this change in the weather suggests a MUCH LOWER open..........if it holds.

+++++++++++++++++++

8pm: The last 18z model in purple below, took back some of the warm up(12z run now in yellow/left) but is still MILDER than all the previous runs before that:

+++++++++++++++=

NG 1/18/26

By metmike - Feb. 1, 2026, 5:16 p.m.

SHARPLY lower open!

4:55pm: HUGELY lower open!

++++++++++++++++

Re: NG 1/18/26

By metmike - Feb. 1, 2026, 6:12 p.m.

Even though we were +$5,000/contract higher on Friday, our gap today was a DOWNSIDE gap lower!!!

$6,000/contract lower on the open. The time to short was Saturday, when the models turned much milder............but the markets were closed.

I missed the open because it opened way lower than my selling price. In this sort of market, selling on Friday was too risky.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Top RED line was the close on Friday, +5,000/contract.

Bottom line was the open Sunday, BELOW the low on Friday and a GAP LOWER -$6,000/contract. I've never seen this happen before in 34 years of trading!

On Friday, front month March was at a premium of $3,500+ to the April.

Now at just +$700 vs the April. Of course this is overdone and we should get some sort of bounce back.

+++++++++++++++

The heating oil market below, actually didn't open that much lower(no gap) red line. Traders that sold that market on the open were able to get more bang for their buck because the NG gap so incredibly low on the open. NG is a much more sensitive weather market by a mile but in this case the delayed reaction by heating oil would have been the way to go. No way would I have been able to know this before the open.

In fact, my trading program would not even show prices the first 5 minutes, other than bids/offers. Not sure if it was overwhelmed or what.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/heating-oil

Re: Re: NG 1/18/26

By metmike - Feb. 1, 2026, 7:17 p.m.

1. This was the last 12z European Ensemble model on Sunday(purple/left). HDDs in week 2 are now BELOW average(much milder temps)

2. This was the last 12z EE model on Friday. It was -6 HDDs BEARISH but the market completely ignored it after a small blip down. I had a selling set up triggered by that milder run and would have been run over by the bulls stampeding upwards Friday afternoon if short. This was actually in the early stage of the models turning milder which amplified over the weekend.

Re: Re: Re: Re: NG 1/18/26

The 12z European Ensemble model (purple/left) had -6 HDDs compared to the previous 0z run,

Re: Re: Re: NG 1/18/26

By metmike - Feb. 1, 2026, 10:51 p.m.

1. Top line was Friday's close = +$5,000/contract

2. 2nd line was Friday's low

3. 3rd line was Sunday's open and high, -$6,000/contract. The space between the 2nd and 3rd line was/is a downside break away gap.

After immediately spiking to -$7,200/contract shortly after the open, we fought back up close to the open, testing the bottom of the gap/high and have fallen back close to mid range as I type.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Re: NG 1/18/26

By WxFollower - Feb. 2, 2026, 1:08 a.m.

Thanks, Mike.

I wonder if in addition to the Sun 12Z EE having a whopping 24 fewer HDD for 2/8-13 vs the Fri 12Z run if the warmer Sun Euro Weeklies week 3 (for 2/16-22) vs what Fri’s showed was an additional significant factor.

———

Edit at 1:20: I hope MM doesn’t mind but I started a new NG thread.

Re: Re: NG 1/18/26

By metmike - Feb. 2, 2026, 1:20 a.m.

Yes, Larry that probably contributed a bit too.

Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 2, 2026, 1:52 a.m.

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This last 0z GEFS was another -10 HDDs(purple/left) compared to the previous 18z run. As a result, NG tested its lows for the session:

Re: Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By tjc - Feb. 2, 2026, 9:07 a.m.

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Weather Gentlemen

Was there 'perhaps' some 'tell' in market behavior on Friday that would have alerted 'one' to buy a PUT?

(Much like the weather rallies in Beans that ALWAYS top on the Friday of the three day July Fourth weekend?) (Mike and I know that pain!)

I have extremely little trading experience in NGas, but I think it might be prosperous to analyze the TOPPING MECHANISMS of recent metals, ngas, beef explosive TOPS, and in the past minn wheat, beans, etc to determine IF there is a 'tell'. Would assume high RSI, %R, etc technicals, but must be something else in the BEHAVIOR.

Your thoughts?

Re: Re: Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 2, 2026, 10:49 a.m.

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Was there 'perhaps' some 'tell' in market behavior on Friday that would have alerted 'one' to buy a PUT?

Thanks for the good question, tjc!

The market was a shorting set up for me, when the extreme cold pattern let up as it always is after extreme weather shifts to the opposite. I almost sold a couple of times on a less cold model Thursday and Friday and at best could have captured a small, very temporary drop.

On Friday afternoon, as shown above the European Ensemble model and the Canadian model both came out a bit LESS bullish but the market bull kept stampeding and would have trampled me if short.

The longer range forecast thru Feb was still COLD, so I assumed the market was trading that as the #1 priority. In retrospect, it might have been impacted by the upcoming weekend Winter Storm along the East Coast too.

Also the front month had just expired $30,000/contract higher than the new front month, March and I was wondering if this could just be the March catching up.

Regardless, the March NG on Friday closed +$5,000/contract higher and close to the highs, about as bullish as it get's on a price charts and for traders using charts to predict what's coming next, suggesting a potential gap higher to start this week.

But the only reason that I trade NG is because it's a weather market. At this time of year, the weather forecast TRUMPS everything else. On Saturday, you can see from my post above the models made one of the biggest BEARISH(LESS COLD) changes to the forecast that I can remember.

Could that have been anticipated?

Keep in mind, thru much of January, the models have UNDER predicted the cold and this made it more likely that the weekend updates were much more likely to get COLDER and NOT MILDER.

But that's how it is in the world of weather forecasting and why all my huge, 6 figure losses (in the past when I traded huge size) were from being long over a weekend, when the weather pattern changed and I couldn't get out.

In this case, the biggest changes happened early Saturday and nobody could get out.........OR IN for me and you.

There are 7 days in a week. 6 of them have trading. M-Thu, 4 of those days have trading almost round the clock and are the best for trading weather. Friday's have trading thru the daytime. Sunday's have trading AFTER the daytime.

The only day with 0 trading is Saturday. Every huge loss that I ever took came when the weather models changed EARLY SATURDAY. 100% of them. The reason for this is that it maximizes the time elapsed AFTER the weather pattern change while the market is still closed which amplifies the magnitude of the move when the market opens again and needs for the price to catch up to the weather.

For instance, a weather model change on Sunday morning, might mean less than 12 hours until traders have to react and there is less certainty in the solutions. However, a weather model PATTERN CHANGE on Saturday morning, means there will be numerous additional model runs. Not only can they confirm the PATTERN CHANGE but in cases like this, as the pattern change get's CLOSER the models catching on usually AMPLIFY the change and maximize the difference in the weather forecast between when the market closed on Friday and when it opens again on Sunday.

That's exactly what happened this past weekend. The weather forecast/models suddenly got MUCH LESS COLD early on Saturday and built on that idea the rest of the weekend. By Sunday afternoon, every ng weather trader on the planet knew it and didn't want to be long. The complete opposite mentality of traders on Friday.

joj mentioned a phrase that a really sharp, grain floor trader mentioned to him decades ago. "buy wet, sell dry". This would have worked this time but the thing is that very often, people have convenient memories about stuff like this (not Joj). They remember weekends like this or when they got their clocks cleaned, like me when I was long a very bullish pattern over a weekend when the weather models turned very bearish.

What "buy wet, sell dry" means is that the market quickly dials in the bearish or bullish weather forecast and is very vulnerable for a move in the opposite direction if the weather maps change...........which they often do.

Regardless of that, the MAJORITY of times, the trend is your friend and weather patterns last a long enough time to cause that. The exceptions are when the weather patterns change from 1 extreme to something much less extreme or even to the opposite.

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 2, 2026, 1:17 p.m.

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Historic day for natural gas!!

Now down over $11,000/contract!!! The graph below only goes back to last Wednesday because that's when the March contract became the new front month being graphed.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 2, 2026, 1:38 p.m.

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These weather indicators really tell the story:

The extremely negative (very cold) ----AO goes to positive.

The negative (cold) NAO goes to neutral.

The positive (cold) PNA goes to neutral.

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ens.html#nh

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

Arctic Oscillation Index, North Atlantic Oscillation Index, Pacific North American Index.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

Ensemble Mean AO Outlook

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

Ensemble Mean NAO Outlook

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

Ensemble Mean PNA Outlook

+++++++++++

Re: Re: NG 12/1/25-

By metmike - Dec. 8, 2025, 11:48 a.m.

http://appinsys.com/globalwarming/ao_nao.htm

AO BELOW

++++++++++++

This below has been the pattern the past 2 weeks:

La Nina Winters have more amplified, merional type flow........from north to south and a Greenland Block is more likely during a La Nina, like we have currently.

The pattern we had recently was an AMPLIFIED version of the La Nina signal depicted below.

https://www.hometownforecastservice.com/2020-2021-winter-outlook/

++++++++++++++

Below is going to be the NEW pattern in 2 weeks. This is the jet stream at 250 mb which is 34,000+ above the ground, up where the commercial jets fly! Note the big upper level ridge building in the East.

The upper level trough in the East RECENTLY will be replaced with this upper level RIDGE. The steering currents there will be from the south, replacing the flow that had been coming from Siberia, with cross polar flow, thru Canada, then plunging deeply into the United States, all the way to the Gulf of Mexico as depicted on the map above.

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php

Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By WxFollower - Feb. 2, 2026, 1:54 p.m.

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tjc/MM,

Had I still been active, the only trade I MIGHT have even considered would have been buying a few well OOM puts at a fair price (not buying at the ask if the spread were too large). This way one wouldn’t have to be worried all weekend about a potential huge loss if shorting actual contract(s) as the most you could lose would obviously be the put’s buying price. But it’s easier to say this now in hindsight.

Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 2, 2026, 2:19 p.m.

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Great comment, Larry!
In that same world of speculating what might have been in the realm of should have, could have, would have. 25 years ago I traded 100 lot orders and held positions over the weekend. If I had been short 100 contracts from Fridays close, I would be up over 1.1 million right now.

Of course the margins are way too high from recent volatility for anybody to hold a,position overnight that large without an account with well over a million in equity.

And trading 20 contracts today is like trading 100 contracts then because of the enormous moves in such short periods of time.

And the weather maps on Friday didn’t tell me this was a great idea.

Realistically, i should have sold aggressively on the expected retest of last nights open but its almost impossible, as you know to sell something that’s already down $6,000/contract early in the trading session.

However, the models got even milder so NG went even lower…..and lower and lower.

Down over $11,000/contract.

This might be more than the record down day the Monday after the blow off top the previous Friday in December?

435,000+ contracts traded in just the front month, March!

Re: Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By tjc - Feb. 2, 2026, 5:47 p.m.

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MM/Larry

Excellent discussion, Mike; and Larry, you need to 'act' on your instincts.

I guess what I am hinting at is 'behavioral' tells. End of month buying, moves that are "too" exhilarating, culmination moves at excessive levels, whatever one might call it. I have seen it in the Feeder Cattle top, silver last week, ngas last week, and beans/corn in weather markets. In retrospect it "should be easy" to pinpoint, but it never is. Yet, there IS a CLIMAX, and the last buyers never fare well.

Is anyone aware of a printed text describing these climaxes?

Tim

Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By WxFollower - Feb. 2, 2026, 9:22 p.m.

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Well, what do you know?! Todays drop was the largest in 31 years:

Natural Gas Prices Plummet as Weather Looks Warmer

Updated Feb. 2, 2026 at 3:07 pm ET

1502 ET – Natural gas futures drop 26%, the largest one-day percentage decline since 1995, on warmer weather forecasts and expectations of inventory buildup. “Did the data trend warm enough to justify a more than $1 plunge? Of course not,” NatGasWeather.com says in a note, adding that natural gas price moves “often overshoot.” The Eastern half of the U.S. is expected to warm “well above normal,” the forecaster says, while production recovers after freeze-offs last week. The most-active contract closes at $3.237/mmBtu. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-prices-pull-back-after-weather-driven-rally-4f77624d?

Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 2, 2026, 9:56 p.m.

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Thanks much, Larry!

Natural gas futures drop 26%, the largest one-day percentage decline since 1995,

Where are they getting since 1995 from???

I've been trading since 1992 and this is easily the BIGGEST I remember.

Here's 1996 below. Low storage and the expiration of the January contract caused what was the most extreme move ever at the end of December AT THAT POINT but it paled compared to today. The most active day for any day in 1996 was less than 100,000 contracts traded. Today, the March contract by itself traded 500,000 contracts, over 5 times that.

This was unprecedented in natural gas history............period!

https://futures.tradingcharts.com/historical/NG/1995/0/continuous.html#footerclose

There were a couple of other years on the chart below that had a potentially bigger daily move down on an ABSOLUTE sense(because prices were so high) but not on a relative % scale.

https://www.macrotrends.net/3965/us-natural-gas-prices

This was the big drop on Monday, December 8, 2025 after the huge blow off top on the previous Friday, December 5, 2025.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/116291/#116451

Today's move below, blew that one away by a wide margin, especially using % of the price which started much lower.

Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By WxFollower - Feb. 2, 2026, 11:17 p.m.

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Hey Mike,

I don’t know why 1995 was mentioned.

I did a Google/AI of

“largest natural gas price drop in history” and got this:

“Other significant drops include a 16.5% one-day decline in November 2018 and a 44%, two-day plunge in June 2022 due to a major U.S. LNG export outage Natural Gas Intelligence. “

Actually, although I couldn’t find that 44% two day decline, I did find a 16.7% drop on 6/14/2022, a Tuesday:

Per NGI, that 16.7% drop was then the 3rd largest drop in history:

Natural Gas Futures Bounce Back After Third-Largest Drop on Record

By Kevin Dobbs

on June 15, 2022 at 5:49 p.m.

Published in:NGI All News AccessFiled under:

Natural Gas Prices

Following one of the biggest plunges in the history of natural gas trading, futures rebounded on Wednesday as traders digested the impact of a major export outage against a broader backdrop of robust global demand.

https://naturalgasintel.com/news/natural-gas-futures-bounce-back-after-third-largest-drop-on-record/

Looking further ahead on investing.com, there also was a LATER 17.0% drop on 6/30/2022, a Thursday:

There was a 17.5% drop on 11/15/2018, a Thursday, which was one day after an 18.1% rise:

So, putting the pieces together, it appears that 6/14/2022 was then the 3rd largest drop and that 11/15/2018 was either the largest or more likely the 2nd largest. I still need to search for one other of the largest before 6/14/2022.

From AI as I already posted:

Significant Historical Drops: In November 2018, natural gas dropped roughly 18% in one day (nearly 80 cents), notes MarketWatch.

Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 2, 2026, 11:29 p.m.

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Thanks, Larry!

Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By WxFollower - Feb. 3, 2026, 2:09 a.m.

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YW Mike,

Ok, I found the other big drop and it wasn’t in 1995. It was on Thursday 3/18/2004 and it was -19.1% (see image below), which means until yesterday had been THE largest drop of any day since NG started trading in 1990. Note that other than yesterday, surprisingly none of the other top drops were on a Monday! Isn’t that kind of counterintuitive?

In summary, the largest drops in descending order were on a Mon (26% in 2026), Thu (19.1% in 2004), Thu (17.5% in 2018), Thu (17% in 2022), and Tue (16.7% in 2022).

Re: Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 3, 2026, 2:11 a.m.

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The 18z GEFS, 6 hours ago was another whopping -20 HDDs bearish!

This last 0z run confirms that previous run. The price is $250/contract higher and $1,000/contract off the lows tonight. After the biggest 1 day move down in the history of natural gas on Monday, by a wide margin it's hard to not imagine some sort of a recovery, even with extremely bearish weather.

The market already OVER dialed in this milder weather on Monday. It's possible we will turn cold again and have a bounce up but its tough to conceive of prices getting anywhere close to where they were last month.

Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By WxFollower - Feb. 3, 2026, 2:23 a.m.

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Hey Mike,

Thanks. In case you missed it, we again typed posts at the same time and mine was posted 2 minutes before yours. Please check it because I found the other big drop date.

Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 3, 2026, 2:39 a.m.

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Yes, Larry great job and I think that makes much more sense looking at how crazy the price would be in those days before fracking, when storage wasn’t as high and the lag in time to recover from low storage took much longer.

I'm surprised we don’t have several big change days closer to expiration on your list, memory tells me that close to expiration, on average its MUCH more volatile.

Re: Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 3, 2026, 10:06 a.m.

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NG is having a strong rebound from yesterday's totally unprecedented plunge lower by a wide margin.

+$1,000/contract. That's still less than 10% of the total loss on Monday compared to Friday's close.

Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By WxFollower - Feb. 3, 2026, noon

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To summarize my research done last night for future reference, here are the largest natural gas price drops in one trading day since 1990 (for those who don’t know, daily NG % price changes are typically heavily affected by changes in week 2-3 E US temperature anomaly forecasts from the prior trading day):

-25.7% 2/2/2026 (Mon)

-19.1% 3/18/2004 (Thu)

-17.5% 11/15/2018 (Thu)

-17.0% 6/30/2022 (Thu)

-16.7% 6/14/2022 (Tue)

Was yesterday’s 26% plunge way overdone in relation to progged demand drop? Of course it was! But that’s beside the point.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-prices-pull-back-after-weather-driven-rally-4f77624d?

It’s currently up 4% for today in deadcat bounce fashion.

Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 3, 2026, 12:38 p.m.

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Great work, Larry!

Thanks for sharing your gifts and love of analyzing statistics with us!

Re: Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 4, 2026, 5:16 p.m.

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NG had another strong day on Wednesday, +1,500/contract but only recovering another 12% or so of the historic drop on Monday.

The big deal is the EIA report tomorrow. Destined to be one of the biggest drawdowns in history, well above 300 Bcf.

This was dialed in mostly with the huge spike up more than a week ago. I’ll have to check the records for the biggest drawdowns ever to see what place this one comes in.

Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By WxFollower - Feb. 4, 2026, 5:37 p.m.

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Thank you, Mike! I love doing them when I have the time. I’ve loved analyzing stats since I was a kid.

Regarding tomorrow’s EIA release:

“Analysts in a Wall Street Journal survey predict a record withdrawal of 374 billion cubic feet, larger than the previous record of 359 Bcf in January 2018.”

https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/u-s-natural-gas-futures-extend-cautious-recovery-ca50a4fe?

Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 4, 2026, 10:15 p.m.

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Thanks very much, Larry!

I found this graph. It's almost impossible to see exact numbers for individual weeks but we can actually learn a great deal from the graph below. I summarized what I could ascertain that included going back to look at individual weeks the past 2 years.

There have only been 4 weeks when the EIA drawdown was greater than -300 Bcf.

1. Notably the one that Larry mentioned of -359 Bcf in January 2018.

2. After that was -338 Bcf on February 25, 2021

3. 3rd place was -326 Bcf on January 25, 2024.

4. 4th place was -321 Bcf on January 30, 2025.

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

Here's more to glean from this.

The first 2 decades thru 2009 are on the far left and compressed/very tiny(X axis), then, starting in 2010, the graph is magnified horizontally/expanded/stretched out so that the last 15 years, take up over 5 times the horizontal space as the first 19 years. 2010 is also the year that the greater than -200 Bcf drawdowns begin.

The magnitude of the extreme drawdowns made a huge increase starting exactly that year, 2010. Something profound must have happened then and I will take a stab at a couple of things being likely.

1. This is when exports really started ramping up. When this adds to the demand for heating in the United States, the cumulative impact went way up.

2. This is also when the +100 Bcf injections also increased. That had better be the case to make up for the more extreme drawdowns. The hydraulic fracking, horizontal land drilling really got going just before this time frame and caused a huge increase in natural gas production. Much of that has been gobbled up by exports.

3. The 1990s in the United States featured very mild Winters. It's actually why many climate scientists decided that global warming was ramping up faster than it really was. Part of this warming was from the cleaner air in the 80's/90's. Hugh??? It's true, pollution from Industry was blocking enough warming, short wave, solar radiation that it caused modest global cooling from the 1940's-70's. It's called "global dimming". The clean air(water) acts of the 1970's cleaned up much of that pollution and the clear air allowed the full sun +the suppressed greenhouse gas impact from the CO2 that had been increasing every year, even during global cooling years.

So ironic that cleaning up all the REAL pollution in the atmosphere caused additional global warming after pollution suppressed all of it and then some.

So that warming trend in the 1990's leveled off/stalled after the massive SUPER El NIno of 1998/99 peaked with its record warming impact on the planet from its warming of the East Central Tropical Pacific that burped out warm air into the atmosphere. And the atmosphere was already cleaned up.

It's resumed of course but not at the same rate of the 1990's.

Re: Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 5, 2026, 10:30 a.m.

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We have a new record for greatest drawdown in history.........by 1 Bcf!

-360 Bcf!

But that's actually bearish because the market expected a bigger drawdown!

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

for week ending January 30, 2026 | Released: February 5, 2026 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: February 12, 2026

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
					Historical Comparisons
	Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf)				Year ago (01/30/25)		5-year average (2021-25)
Region	01/30/26	01/23/26	net change	implied flow	Bcf	% change	Bcf	% change
East	502	577	-75	-75	513	-2.1	551	-8.9
Midwest	584	676	-92	-92	613	-4.7	661	-11.6
Mountain	213	228	-15	-15	202	5.4	160	33.1
Pacific	272	291	-19	-19	232	17.2	209	30.1
South Central	891	1,050	-159	-159	861	3.5	910	-2.1
Salt	228	313	-85	-85	219	4.1	252	-9.5
Nonsalt	663	737	-74	-74	643	3.1	658	0.8
Total	2,463	2,823	-360	-360	2,422	1.7	2,490	-1.1
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,463 Bcf as of Friday, January 30, 2026, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 360 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 41 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 27 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,490 Bcf. At 2,463 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.

Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2021 through 2025. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

Re: Re: Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 5, 2026, 11:48 a.m.

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1. After a spike lower following the EIA report, NG has reversed up and is back to the price it was at before the release(red line at far right.

2. Note the enormous magnitude of the Monday's historic drop lower! The top line was Friday's close. The top LONG red line was Friday's low. The bottom LONG red line was Sunday Night's open and high for the week. We continued to plunge Monday, bottoming with the biggest 1 day losses in the history of natural gas by a wide margin. See the discussion above for more about that.

3. a.I have no clue about price direction here.

b. The weather has turned bearish and remains that way but NOT more bearish.

c. The record huge EIA report is out of the way. The magnitude of the price drop on Monday was way overdone but is this fair value?

d. The huge gap lower on Sunday Night is still ominous and serves as a downside break away gap until it's filled.

e. It might turn colder again later in February but most of Winter will be over then.

f. Seasonal lows typically happen towards the end of Winter but each year is different. You do NOT want to be short NG in April/May without a good reason...........most of the time.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 5, 2026, 3:06 p.m.

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Models turning colder again.

+8 HDDs on the last 12z GEFS in purple/left.

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 5, 2026, 7:52 p.m.

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https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

1. Top red line was last Friday's close.

2. Next red line was last Friday's low.

3. Next red line was Sunday's gap lower and highs for this week.

4. Next red line are the highs after Monday's historic/record drop. Serving as upside resistance the last 24 hours. We could easily break thru that with colder forecasts overnight. However, filling that downside break away gap to start this week will take some doing and MUCH colder weather in the forecasts. The bottom of that gap will be some major resistance. If filled, it would be a gap and crap selling exhaustion gap but again, that is a pretty tall order.

5. Uptrend line drawn under the lows since Monday. Spike thru that after the buy the rumor/sell the fact reaction to the biggest EIA drawdown in history which was actually BEARISH vs expectations.

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 8, 2026, 7:20 p.m.

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Another gap lower to start the new week. Nothing like last week's gap lower that started the session which featured the biggest drop in NG history!

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Red lines from top to bottom

1. Close on Friday Jan. 30

2. Low on Friday Jan. 30-top of gap lower

2. Open on Sunday Feb. 1 and high last week-bottom of downside break away gap.

3. Close on Friday Feb. 6-top of daily gap lower

4. Open on Sunday Feb. 8(90 minutes ago)-bottom of new gap lower. Still above last weeks spike low on Monday, Feb. 2 after the biggest drop in NG history.

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 10, 2026, 1:24 a.m.

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NG made new lows for the move today!
We now have 2 downside beak away gaps, coinciding with the opens of the last 2 Sunday evenings.

: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 11, 2026, 11:45 a.m.

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The EIA number last week was the biggest draw down in history by -1 Bcf. Tomorrow's number won't be THAT big but will still be very robust with the cold for that 7 day period occurring in some very high population regions that were gobbling up natural gas to keep their homes warm!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

Re: : NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 12, 2026, 10:59 a.m.

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Big drop immediately after the release!

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

for week ending February 6, 2026 | Released: February 12, 2026 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: February 19, 2026

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
					Historical Comparisons
	Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf)				Year ago (02/06/25)		5-year average (2021-25)
Region	02/06/26	01/30/26	net change	implied flow	Bcf	% change	Bcf	% change
East	438	502	-64	-64	474	-7.6	506	-13.4
Midwest	510	584	-74	-74	566	-9.9	611	-16.5
Mountain	209	213	-4	-4	194	7.7	152	37.5
Pacific	273	272	1	1	225	21.3	202	35.1
South Central	784	891	-107	-107	853	-8.1	873	-10.2
Salt	176	228	-52	-52	227	-22.5	243	-27.6
Nonsalt	608	663	-55	-55	626	-2.9	631	-3.6
Total	2,214	2,463	-249	-249	2,311	-4.2	2,344	-5.5
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,214 Bcf as of Friday, February 6, 2026, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 249 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 97 Bcf less than last year at this time and 130 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,344 Bcf. At 2,214 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.

Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range

Re: Re: : NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 15, 2026, 6:16 p.m.

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NG did one of its favorite things to do on the Sunday open..........huge gap down from Friday's low at 3.058 on the open and high so far.

1 week of prices below.

1. Top red line =last week's high on Thursday.

2. 2nd red line =Friday's close

3. 3rd red line =Friday's low 3.114

4. 4th red line = Last week's low =exactly the price of tonight's open and a wide DAILY bar gap lower(the gap is between the low Friday-3rd red line and the high Sunday-4th red line(even though this product draws a line, there were no trades in between that price drop =definition of a gap).

Re: Re: Re: : NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 16, 2026, 3:57 p.m.

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I did a triple take on this one. The 12z European model Ensemble(purple) HDD change from the previous 0z run.

+26 HDDs. I can't remember a bigger run to run change for this ensemble product which is an average of 50 different variations/solutions of the parent model so that it greatly stabilizes run to run changes.

NG had already started picking up steam ahead of that but it closed on the highs and ALMOST closed the daily gap below Friday's low of 3.114 and today's new high of 3.104.

Closing that gap puts in a gap and crap selling exhaustion formation on the price charts but whether it predictive or not depends on if the weather models continue to get colder.

+++++++++++=

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

This source did a horrific job at graphing recent price ranges, especially today.

Hopefully, you can follow what happened with some elaborating below.

1. Top red line was last weeks high.

2. Bottom red line was last week's low. We opened at exactly that red line last night, then spiked below $3 over night but came back to close ABOVE $3 and ABOVE the open which is BULLISH!

3. The 2 red lines in the middle are the actual low on Friday(incorrectly graphed by this source) and the actual high today of 3.104 at 1:05 pm(graphed wrong by this source). This left the narrow gap in between. It's a downside break away gap..........unless or until it gets filled which turns it into a selling exhaustion gap.

Re: Re: Re: Re: : NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 16, 2026, 4:20 p.m.

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If we were using Japanese Candlestick interpretations, the 2 below most closely resemble today's price chart formation for natural gas on the daily bar analysis:

38 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know

https://groww.in/blog/candlestick-patterns

Go to the link below for more:

Dragonfly Doji Bullish Pattern

The Dragonfly Doji is a single candlestick pattern with a very small body and a long lower shadow that appears at the bottom of a downtrend.

What Dragonfly Doji Bullish Pattern Indicates: It indicates that a stock's open, high, and close prices are all near the same level. Dragonfly Doji Bullish Pattern might seem similar to Hammer Pattern but Dragonfly Doji has no body, while Hammer has a small body at the top.

++++++++++++==

Also here is a blog on How to Read Candlestick Patterns.

Go to the link below for more:

Hammer Pattern

Hammer is a single candlestick pattern with

A small body candle, and Long lower shadow/wick

What Hammer Pattern Indicates: Whenever the chart is in a downtrend, and a Hammer candlestick is made, it indicates that the share price might go up because the buyers have become more dominant or active.

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: : NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 18, 2026, 1:32 p.m.

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Unfortunately for the bulls, that huge, much colder 12z Monday model run did NOT continue so the bullish ammo vanished and has been replaced by MUCH milder weather after the spike colder for several days, starting late this week.

These were the HDDS of last 4 runs of the GEFS(American ensemble model) every 6 hours, with purple being the last one.

The dashed green line is the climatological average which is falling pretty fast now with less than 30% of Winter left.

Let's explain what has happened this week with the red lines below.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

TOP CHART FOR 1 WEEK.

1. 1 week. Top line, last Friday's low.

2. 2nd horizontal line, Sunday's open. Between those 2 lines was a huge gap(where no prices=gap even though this data provider doesn't show it.

3. Upslope line was the big bounce after the much colder guidance came out on Monday. This CLOSED the gap and served as a bullish chart formation representing a SELLING EXHAUSTION (at the time).

4. DOWN slope line. However, the weather guidance got milder again and ng speculators flipped back to selling the milder forecasts.

5. Bottom, horizontal line. Spike low from Monday's downside break away gap(at the time) that was overdone to the down side. We spiked BELOW that today but are back above it now and also above psychological support at $3. The late period on this 12z European Ensemble model just came out much colder and I would bet that's exactly what has caused this recovery in the last few minutes.

February price chart below. DOWN trend and price plunge.

There were several distinctive bears flags on the way down.

We had a huge spike to new lows since last Fall this morning but are above Monday's lows for a potential double bottom.

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: : NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 19, 2026, 2:23 p.m.

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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

for week ending February 13, 2026 | Released: February 19, 2026 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: February 26, 2026

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
					Historical Comparisons
	Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf)				Year ago (02/13/25)		5-year average (2021-25)
Region	02/13/26	02/06/26	net change	implied flow	Bcf	% change	Bcf	% change
East	388	438	-50	-50	426	-8.9	467	-16.9
Midwest	457	510	-53	-53	503	-9.1	560	-18.4
Mountain	207	209	-2	-2	184	12.5	143	44.8
Pacific	271	273	-2	-2	210	29.0	192	41.1
South Central	747	784	-37	-37	807	-7.4	832	-10.2
Salt	168	176	-8	-8	216	-22.2	229	-26.6
Nonsalt	579	608	-29	-29	591	-2.0	603	-4.0
Total	2,070	2,214	-144	-144	2,129	-2.8	2,193	-5.6
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,070 Bcf as of Friday, February 13, 2026, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 144 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 59 Bcf less than last year at this time and 123 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,193 Bcf. At 2,070 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.

Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range

++++++++

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

These were the temperatures for that period:

Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By WxFollower - Feb. 19, 2026, 2:56 p.m.

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Hey Mike,

The avg guess for the EIA was -154. So, the -144 was bearish vs the mean guess. I see that NG spiked down ~4-5 cents immediately.

Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 19, 2026, 3:17 p.m.

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Thanks even more than usual, Larry.

I've been tied up tracking our severe weather threat and email stuff out today.

Re: Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 20, 2026, 11:30 a.m.

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The overnight 0z European Ensemble model(purple/left) was +6.5 HDDs vs the previous 12z run from 12 hours earlier.

The green dashed line is the rapidly falling climatological average as Winter rapidly fades because of the sun's higher and higher angle and longer days.

That‘s one thing that we can always depend on...........the sun and it's relationship to the earth! At least for awhile

And the miracle of photosynthesis that combines solar energy with beneficial CO2(the building block for all life) H2O and some minerals in the soil to produce food, a greening planet and a booming biosphere!

Our planet has a finite amount of natural resources that should be conserved as well as protecting life and natural environments but the sun will always be a constant with heat and radiation flowing at a rate beyond the control of humans.

Fossil fuels are actually solar energy that has been sequestered deeply underground for millions of years. The natural CO2 that’s released from burning fossil fuels was previously in the atmosphere before it was captured by plants via the miracle of photosynthesis which converts heat energy from the sun into stored chemical energy in plants.

Releasing that sequestered CO2 into the atmosphere, where it came from is allowing it to be recirculated as a beneficial gas once again as part of a circle of life that humans have blessed the planet with thanks to our technology that enables us to retrieve and burn fossil fuels (converting the stored chemical energy back into heat and other forms of energy) while releasing the beneficial CO2 that has rescued our planet from near CO2 starvation 150 years ago.

Re: Re: Re: Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 21, 2026, 1:27 p.m.

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The statement at the bottom of the last page will seem shocking and be confusing to many If not most people.

That‘s entirely because climate science was hijacked over 3:decades ago and they even rewrote climate history to wipe out the Medieval Warm Period 1,000 years ago and the even warmer Holocene Climate Optimum 9,000 to 6,000 years ago, which was warmer than today in the higher latitudes(experiencing the most warming right now).

They have effectively stolen the intelligence of the youngest generations by indoctrinating them into fake climate crisis religion.

Thats not Just an opinion. As an atmospheric scientist, I watched it happen.

There is no climate crisis.

We are living in a wonderful climate optimum for most life on this planet based on authentic science.

Not maybe. Not speculative. Not just my opinion.
Based on all the authentic empirical data and evidence!

Its incredibly one sided in favor of the optimum for LIFE on this planet.

NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 22, 2026, 5:56 p.m.

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Looks like NG is going to open HIGHER tonight.

More short term cold than expected but warming up later this week and week 2.

I'll have to look closer at the forecast.

5:30pm: Looking closer, this is likely a big part of the sharply higher open tonight:

Nor'Easter

Started by mikempt - Feb. 22, 2026, 12:53 p.m.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/118086/

Re: NG 2/2/26-

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By metmike - Feb. 23, 2026, 1:57 p.m.

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Despite the historic snowstorm(and current cold), the actual forecast has not shown any substantial cold coming after we warm up this week. So the sharply higher/gap open last night was a brief gap and crap buying exhaustion that reversed lower with the bullish weather event dialed in all at once on the Sunday Night open.

We're talking March weather now. It's usually too late in the heating season to make much difference in storage, although March is the time frame that features the most seasonal lows in the price of natural gas.

Natural Gas Prices Plummet as Weather Looks Warmer

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

Summary

Summary

38 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know

Dragonfly Doji Bullish Pattern

Hammer Pattern

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

Summary

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