Welcome to the new month, March.
I think that some in the market anticipated the possibility of this attack on Iran but would think we could see some price gaps on the open for some markets.
Gaps higher for the liquid energies stand out as being likely!
What do you guys think.
Will the stock market gap lower?
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 year: Major high last July, 2025. Big price move up in 2026 as the US made more and more moves to strike Iran.
2. 1 week. Steady drop Mon-Wed. Sudden spike up on Thursday (horizontal lines) as the new news leaked out about immediate actions being taken ahead of this attack. Strong move up on Friday as the market dialed in the attack. Closing near the highs sets us up for a GAP HIGHER on the open tonight!
3. 10 years. Major COVID low in 2020. Major war in Ukraine high in 2022. Pretty long lived downtrend channel in 2024/25/early 2026..... which we are going to break out of on the open tonight, after closing at the top of the channel on Friday.
This will be a gap higher on the daily, weekly and monthly bar. It's doubtful that we would gap above the 2025 highs around $74. The front month right now is the April contract.
It's always possible that we see a buy the rumor, sell the fact type of reaction with the market dialing this in the past 2 months and it already being in the price.
Crude +$3 on the open from bids/offers at the moment!
Gap higher natural gas in sympathy!
Gaps higher metals?
Gap lower stock market?
All those calls verified.
Crude at +$2.
Bad quote. Crude opened +$8!!!
The service below was unable to properly graph the price tonight. I drew a red line at the top to show where crude opened, at $75!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
60,000 contracts traded in just the front month April in 15 minutes. That's got to be close to, if not a new record for a Sunday Night open.
Crude is up less than $3 now after opening +$8 and close to the highs.
180,000 contracts traded in just 3 hours for the front month, April contract. That's close to the average volume for the entire session that goes thru tomorrow afternoon!!!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
This source continues to be unable to graph tonight's prices correctly. The top line is where we opened, which was actually just above last Summer's high!!
That's what happens when you have thousands of buy at the market orders on the open and NOBODY wants to sell.
In that situation, the market had to go high enough to match those massive buy orders with the equivalent number of contracts to sell.....which was +$8 higher!!
We're back below $70 right now.
This source is doing a horrible job at graphing crude this week!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 10 years: COVID low in 2020. Ukraine war high in early 2022. Down channel in 2024/25 has been decisively broken. Upside break out. If/when the war ends, we'll see a huge drop. This is almost all from the Iran war which won't last forever. Horizontal line was the high earlier today around $78.
2. 1 year: Lowest line was last weeks highs and the 2026 high as well as the BOTTOM of the gap higher. Next line up is the low for this week and the top of the gap that remains WIDE open. The 3rd line up was the open on Sunday Night and current price. Top line was the high today ~$78 and much higher than last years high price.
3. 1 month. Bottom line was last week's high. Top line is this week's high(today-~$78)
This source is finally able to catch up graphing correct values.
Not much to say. The graphs tell us what's going on. Yesterday, during the press conference, Donald Trump's main lying mouthpiece scolded the media for asking about high oil prices when she insisted oil prices were dropping.
We all know what is causing this. It's a waste of productive time for me to do technical analysis or draw lines at significant points in the past(connecting the dots). This is a market trading NEWS that doesn't care about price and time.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
What did they think would happen?????
Never mind, that's the problem. No thinking. The complete lack of understanding the consequences of actions and lacking the ability to project them on the economy and markets. And no rational thought process that weighs RISKS vs rewards of their(Donald Trump's) consequential actions.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 year
2. 1 month
3. 1 week
Holy cow! Crude is now up 12-13% for just today!!
Yep, over $91 now!
Hey Mike, did you happen to see this? Opinion ? What do you know? What’s going on?
BREAKING: President Donald Trump says there will be no deal with Iran except “unconditional surrender,” adding the U.S. and its allies would then work to rebuild the country and give it a “great future.”
CENTCOM has extend the likely war forecast to September.
WTI may just be catching up with Brent, gasoline, etc.
Hi, guys!
Great to read you, Patrick!!!
Larry,
I've been tied up most of the day with tomorrows chess tournament and will be there for 8 hours tomorrow but will try to get a better handle on the latest.
At this point, like with everything else about Donald Trump I would not give any credibility to anything he says. Flipping a coin to determine outcomes has more skill than using Trump's fork tongue words that literally are more often than not a lie. fading him yields much better results than believing him.
My personal impression the last few days is that he is totally relishing this.
He started a news conference a couple of days ago, with an enthusiastic "Exciting times"
Unleashing the most powerful military of the world, dropping 2,000 lb bombs all day long and killing thousands of people against a country that can't stop him is the biggest rush of his 79 years.
His pathological thinking with lack of understanding and planning of realms he uses his power to control is taking us into uncharted, EXTRAORDINARILY DANGEROUS territory.
Nothing can be ruled out with Donald Trump as president.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil broke above $90 per barrel and ended the week with a 35% gain — its biggest since oil futures trading began in 1983 — as investors weighed the impact of the U.S.-Iran war on global energy supply. Oil surged Friday after President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that there won’t be a deal to end the U.S.-Iran war without an “unconditional surrender” from the Middle Eastern country.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/05/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Thanks, Larry!
Weeks like this last one have only happened, maybe a few times in our lives since WW2.
With the most powerful man in the world being a complete unhinged lunatic and his partner in crime, having an incredibly powerful military, being a psychopath that is still in the midst of his 2.5 year genocide……..some of the potential outcomes here are pretty catastrophic.
This was clearly against International law, completely unprovoked and done to country that not only was no thread to us but done exactly when peace negotiations were bearing fruit and EXACTLY BECAUSE they were making progress.
Israel does not want Iran to have peace with the United States and Donald Trump is focused on using his position for CONQUEST around the world.
Unchallenged, unprecedented power and deranged, pathological thinking and decision making are the recipe for extremely bad outcomes.
However, US defense contractors are making record profits, making their investments to bribe the morally bankrupt politicians that gave this a green light Pay off handsomely.
That’s why we have democratic elections in this country. To punish politicians and parties that do this to our people and to humanity.
The consequences this November in the mid termsare likely to be unprecedented ……and completely justified.
Unfortunately, 8 months is a long time from now. As we just witnessed…….just 1 week under the current leadership was MUCH TOO LONG.
As mentioned previously, if the almighty Donald Trump indicator, the stock market tanks, it will provide the best chance for Donald Trump to do a huge pivot because he is devoted to,pleasing rich and powerful people.
So ironically, we should be praying for a stock market crash because of the deranged dynamics under Donald Trump.
His economy of losing jobs and tariff caused inflation, along with the ruinous war seem to be too much, even for the self fulfilling driven, extremely over valued stock market.
Donald Trump has the power to end it overnight. When it does end, with certainty, no matter how long it goes, no matter how much destruction and innocent people killed, no matter that Iran wanted peace and was negotiating, we can all be confident that Donald Trump will tell us when it’s over and he will proclaim an historic, unprecedented, lopsided victory that saved the world thanks to the greatest president, Donald J Trump who has brought America back to its rightful place.
Anyone want to bet against that being his narrative, no matter what the outcome is??
The pathological mind of the greatest global bully in my lifetime will know when the negative consequences of his ruinous decision are getting so bad that it’s time to declare victory While he can still manufacture a fake reality for Fox News to play to reinforce the MAGA brainwash.
High oil prices are certainly a good thing for doing that. They cause inflation. They slow the economy.
Mr. Drill baby drill and the lowest gas prices in years pays attention to this.
That is how his brain works. In the middle of the night, in the middle of an unhinged screed, he could suddenly declare the war is over because of the extremely high oil prices threatening his legacy as the president with the cheapest energy prices in history.
I kid you not. It could end as abruptly as it started and for exactly, that reason.
So, dead seriously, if you want Donald Trump to call off the war in Iran, hope/pray for the stock market to crash and oil prices to go even higher.
He will make up fake reasons for calling off the war but those 2,factors matter to his agenda and the legacy he wants for himself. Make no mistake, after pleasing Netanyahu, this war is for Donald Trump is about the legacy of Donald Trump in the mind of the most dangerous person to the world right now.
Completely unhinged lunatic?
Completely unhinged lunatic?
Thanks very much, Patrick!
This is 1 post. We both know that I was referring to many hundreds of his previous screeds in the middle of the night. I really don't need to copy samples of those and we both know there will be countless more of those type between now and when his 2nd term ends. Progressive dementia NEVER gets better and Donald Trump will not likely be the first.
https://www.npr.org/2026/03/07/nx-s1-5734381/white-house-messaging-iran-us-israel-war
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Here's more:
Israel attacks Iran-just in
74 responses |
Started by metmike - Feb. 28, 2026, 1:33 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/118250/
This is the classic Donald Trump that I was referring to that non MAGA, reality based people who cherish ethical standards, humility, respect for others and the truth have grown to know and dislike............including most of our allies unfortunately:
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Trump refusing to accept help and instead, making a snide, braggadocios statement is another quintessential example of this being about the great Donald Trump. He doesn't want to share the attention with another country/ally because he thinks that he and Netanyahu (that he declared were "war hero's" last June because they bombed Iran illegally and without provocation) should get 100% of the credit.
The Feb. 28 school strike in Minab, which killed dozens, including children, appears to have been part of an attack on an adjacent naval base in southern Iran, where officials said U.S. forces were operating.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/world/middleeast/iran-school-us-strikes-naval-base.html
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https://thehill.com/policy/international/5773382-trump-accuses-iran-school-bombing/
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Donald Trump's motto:I am fulfilling my destiny as the most powerful man in the world. When convincing evidence emerges of my big mistakes and profound flaws, the evidence is ALWAYS wrong. Manufacture alternative realities(lies) and repeat them until everybody is convinced of my omnipotence and infallibility.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCESTUS1&f=W.png)
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https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W
.png)
Joe Biden released a massive amount of SPR oil after the Ukraine war started in order to cover for his blunder from a refusal to negotiate with Russia(that led to the war) and the high oil prices that resulted. There was no emergency, just high prices.
The SPR was never replenished. This was odd recently when crude dropped and we had the opportunity to refill the SPR at real cheap prices but the refill rates were not that great. Possibly because forecasts were for even lower crude prices but they totally blew that chance.
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10 years below: COVID low in 2020. Start of the Ukraine war high in early 2022.
Steep down channel 2024/25/26.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
The current structure in Crude Oil appears to be respecting a clear time-price harmonic relationship, supported by both Gann square calculations and planetary signatures.
The previous important swing low formed around 17 October 2025, which established a primary vibration point in the current cycle.
The most recent confirmed swing low occurred on 16 December, which now acts as the operative pivot for the present advance.
Applying Gann 360-degree price rotation from the 12/16 low projects resistance near 102, while a secondary square relationship from the same pivot aligns near 106, indicating a strong harmonic resistance cluster in that region.
From a Gann Time/Price perspective, the market is now approaching a critical time window into mid-March, where multiple cycle counts converge.
The period around March 16 is particularly significant, as it coincides with:
At the same time, Jupiter turning direct in Cancer, near the mid-degrees of the sign, activates the 4th house vibration, which in financial astrology often corresponds to:
This planetary shift supports the possibility of an upward extension toward the 106 price zone, which already aligns with the Gann square projection.
If momentum continues into the 4th week cycle extension, the next harmonic projection falls near the 114 area, which represents a higher octave resistance based on time/price symmetry.
Therefore, the current technical and planetary configuration suggests:
Overall, the alignment of Gann geometry, planetary motion, and seasonal timing indicates that the market is approaching a high-energy cycle point, where volatility and directional expansion are likely.
Thanks fayq!
As you know, I like you alot and encourage posters to state whatever they believe in, especially when it disagrees with me and in this case, even when its complete hogwash.
Astrology is a total hogwash pseudoscience. Sadly, there are millions of people that actually believe in it. There are no studies anywhere that prove the relationships worshiped by astrology followers works.
The only one that might have some impact is the law of self fulfilling prophesies, which is basically that if you get enough people to believe in complete BS related to acting a certain way in a market it will cause the market to act that way.
In other words, if I predicted that when the temperature hits 90 degrees, it causes the price of a loaf of bread to go down at the store which causes a shortage of bread and got millions of people to believe it, then when the temperature was predicted to hit 90 degrees, those believers would actually buy bread because they thought the price would be lower and it would cause stores to run out.
This effect in a different form causes grocery stores to run out of stuff ahead of Winter Storms around here.
Same thing used in advertising on tv. Really effective commercials cause people to buy stuff, even when they make up reasons for it to have value. Was that made up value really value or did they just convince enough people that it was so that they bought from the charlatans?????
People that sell astrology that should know better are charlatans. In your case, fayq I strongly believe you to be an honest person that sincerely thinks they are sharing astrology as a legit way to predict markets and other things. So only think of you as misinformed, like the other people below but not a charlatan.
People just love to believe in things THEY WANT TO BE TRUE. Especially if it empowers them with a special secret to achieving whatever it is they want.
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/rcznsx/23_of_americans_rely_on_astrology_for_buying_or/
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Everybody learned about Pavlovs dog experiments in school as kids. It's a conditioning of the mind based on a reaction in anticipation of the expectations of what will come next.
Self fulfilling prophesies are in the same category. People EXPECT something to happen and in anticipation of it, if there are enough people that believe it will happen, the BELIEF that it will happen (even if its based on junk) can cause it to happen.
https://www.simplypsychology.org/pavlov.html
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We had another gap higher to start Sunday Night. I have the 2 gaps below on the chart.
I waited to post to see what happened in early trading............we kept going higher with 60,000 contracts traded in the front month, April in less than 40 minutes.
As mentioned last week, "what did they(he) think was going to happen??"
Answer: Donald Trump has lost the ability to think ahead about the consequences of his actions.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 month. Last weeks unfilled breakaway gap higher. Top lines were tonight's gap higher. This could end up being an exhaustion gap after Donald Trump pivots when he realizes the mess he's created instead of gloating pathologically. That would result in the gap being filled and a gap and crap formation.
2. 10 years: COVID low in 2020. Ukraine war high in 2022(we're not far from that). Powerful downtrending channel from 2024 until the start of 2026. The last several months had taken on a descending triangle formation instead of a channel. With the slope of the highs dropping but the slope of the lows went up and we broke out to the upside of the apex of the triangle.
Donald Trump's motto:I am fulfilling my destiny as the most powerful man in the world. When convincing evidence emerges of my big mistakes and profound flaws, the evidence is ALWAYS wrong. Manufacture alternative realities(lies) and repeat them until everybody is convinced of my omnipotence and infallibility.
If the price of gas keeps going higher, then what?
Then what: The support for his unjustified, unprovoked, against International law, against humanity war will go lower and lower as it hits the pocketbooks of Americans that realize that THEY are being punished by the pathological thinking of Donald Trump!!!!
As I speculated last week, it will be pivot time for Donald Trump. He will make up something to justify the end of the war and claim the most incredible success of the US military in history and make this the 9th war that he ended.
Never mind all the costs to so many people and entities and the fact that this war started because IRAN WAS AGREEING TO THE DEMANDS OF HIS NUCLEAR DEAL and that would have blown up Israel's justification for attacking Iran being used for over 3 decades (Iran on the verge of getting nuclear bombs).
Let me repeat that:
This war was started by Israel because IRAN WAS AGREEING TO THE DEMANDS OF THEM TO REDUCE THEIR STOCKPILE OF ENRICHED URANIUM.
This would have destroyed Israel's use of the "Iran is on the verge of getting nuclear bombs in X amount of time and we have to stop them now by attacking/bombing them", false narrative.
parabolic move
2 ways to look at the chart
this gap could be a measuring gap, it measure's to 121ish, resistance at this level, more gaps possible
could reverse to be a cap and crap, (don't think this one)
at this point just a guess
Great analysis, cutworm!
I added to my analysis above and it matches closely with yours!!!
1. 1 month. Last weeks unfilled breakaway gap higher. Top lines were tonight's gap higher. This could end up being an exhaustion gap after Donald Trump pivots when he realizes the mess he's created instead of gloating pathologically. That would result in the gap being filled and a gap and crap formation.
2. 10 years: COVID low in 2020. Ukraine war high in 2022(we're not far from that). Powerful downtrending channel from 2024 until the start of 2026. The last several months had taken on a descending triangle formation instead of a channel at the slope of the highs dropped but the slope of the lows went up and we broke out to the upside of the apex of the triangle.
Higher gas prices contributes to inflation AND slows the economy. Donald Trump will be worried about his legacy too much to allow that to go on much longer because he WILL be blamed for those impacts from HIS war.
MetMike
I thought this was a trading platform. As such, traders make trades based upon the market conditions 'dealt' to them. Traders neither care about Obummer playing patsy AND funding Iran for 12 years (his 8 and diaper's 4) or whether trump has had to clean up the mideast. THEY TRADE!
Your posting of rig count, failure to restock the reserve (who depleted it?), charts very well illustrating the gaps AND complimenting Cutworm on his post, ARE all what you do best. Please dont dont name call in this part of the Forum.
Let us all trade AND make contributions to anticipate the next trade. Would it not have been great if ANYONE said--GET LONG CRUDE AND HOLD TO AT LEAST MARCH 8! BUY a call, many calls!!
It is my recollection that markets fall harder than they go up. Please, let us all work to anticipate when and at what level. SO FAR, only Fayq has offered any anticipatory trading advice. IF, IF this were a bean contract, you would be advocating some type of sell strategy. Harness your trading experience--help us all to time a PUT
FYI--looking to sell some stored corn and beans--just 'hope' grain markets dont 'give it all up' before ag rep reopens tomorrow morning.
Stock index 'probably' a buy TUESDAY, after this blow off and bottom forms. AND it could very well be BECAUSE of a change in policy HERE or in IRAN (have to 'think' China wants this resolved!
Thanks, tjc,
I appreciate that very much and agree.
I am actually doing my best to MINIMIZE the politics here and will make an extra effort to do so.
However, it's impossible to not discuss the fundamentals of why markets trade and in this case the main fundamental IS the politics of Donald Trump and Israel.
The crude oil market is trading NEWS and the news is all about the politics. They are tied at the hip. I'm sorry that you disagree on the politics but you should make your case with Donald Trump. I'm just reporting how his politics are impacting the crude oil market, why they are and what might be Donald Trump's next move, which is what will determine the price of crude tomorrow, next week and next month.
I am doing my best to give the majority of those views down here:
Iran war 3/8/26+ (cont. from other thread)
Started by WxFollower - March 8, 2026, 1:32 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/118456/
Israel attacks Iran-just in
81 responses |
Started by metmike - Feb. 28, 2026, 1:33 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/118250/
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"Please dont dont name call in this part of the Forum"
I'll have to challenge you strongly on this one, tjc. Please show an example of me ever name calling a poster or making a personal attack on a poster here. If it happened accidentally, I want to know so that I can apologize.
If it refers to name calling Donald Trump...........you'll just have to live with it because asking me to not use adjectives that I think accurately describe Donald Trump or Netanyahu is an extremely unreasonable demand.
The only thing that matters to the future price of crude oil right now is the political position of Donald Trump!
“We're in uncharted territory- if WTI crude holds these gains tomorrow- the current rise of 29.9% or $27.16/bbl would be its largest single day price jump- in both percent and amount- ever. Ever. EVER”
Thanks, Larry!
We are in an extraordinarily rare situation in history at this very moment.
Events like this may only happen a few times in our lives and that is if it ends tomorrow!!!!
The guy in the drivers seat has no ability to understand the negative impacts of his decisions. I feel that he WILL have no choice but to call off the war early, even though just last week he was making all these extreme threats as the bully trying to scare Iran and get attention for Donald Trump the most powerful man in the world.
This was his tactic with tariffs all last year with much lower stakes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_Always_Chickens_Out
Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO) is a term that gained prominence in May 2025 after many threats and reversals during the trade war U.S. president Donald Trump initiated with his administration's "Liberation Day" tariffs
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His MAGA supporters like to refer to this as "The art of the deal" and Trump being the world's best negotiator.
I have described it with a more reality based view on its impacts.
By metmike - March 8, 2026, 10:45 p.m.
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By metmike - Sept. 14, 2025, 6:10 p.m.
Re: Re: Re: More delusional tariffs!
By metmike - Sept. 14, 2025, 7:52 p.m.
Mike and others,
Do any of you know if there are any circuit breakers for the crude oil market to cause it to close at least temporarily? Or has that already happened this evening?
I'm not sure, Larry.
Great question. We did not hit any limits tonight even on the highs.
I checked to see if the front month, April might have no limit but the next month May does but May also never hit a limit.
I checked Dec 2026, which is up $7 and April 2027 which is up less than $3 and trading under $70 still.
274,000 contracts traded tonight in just the April 2026 crude oil. That has to be a record for a Sunday Evening.
3,000 total contracts traded in the April 2027 crude oil.
Opinions about Charlie Gasparino calling commodity and equity traders “imbeciles”?
As someone who has covered markets for years, I will say this. commodity traders, like equity traders (in the words of a smart bond trader I know) are "imbeciles." They trade off headlines, totally myopic in short-term thinking and predicting. They always screw up what's actually going down, never seeing around corners. It was the case in the run up to the 2008 where there was more than a few market "rallies" before the whole market blew up. This oil price spike has the same feel to it. It's not considering that within days we will 100% control the supply of oil coming out of the Straits of Hurmuz, or that Iran will be 100 decapitated as a military force and a financier of terror. There will be a peace dividend to all of that. Meanwhile buckle up as the Karens who control oil prices have their say, at least for now
Chuckling here, Larry for a few reasons.
If what this guy stated was true and traders were wrong all the time and he was right, he could be one of the richest men in the world by putting his money where his mouth is.
2. He sounds pretty ticked off. Exactly like somebody that just lost a ton of money being wrong with his trade and wants to blame the people who were tight because they really should have been wrong but they manipulated the market and caused themselves to be right.with their imbecile money.
3. Every trade has a buyer and seller. It’s a 0 sum game. On the move up the same amount of money will be a profit as the amount which is a loss When you add every transaction up. On the way down it’s the exact same thing but in reverse Based on whatever the news is.
4. On 1 point, I agree with him on. we hear all the time that the market is always right because it’s the price at any instant in time, agreed upon by all the buyers and sellers at that moment.
I like to think that the price is always WRONG. If it was right all the time, it wouldn’t need to constantly change
Thanks, Mike!
Well, maybe Charlie G. Likes the oil traders more now as the front month has fallen sharply from the ~9:30PM Sunday peak of $119 to ~$100.
Thanks, Larry!
Looking at the time stamp of that last post helped me to realize how late I was up last night doing chess emails to inform schools/parents of the results of our tournament.
Gap and crap reversing down(buying exhaustion) from Donald Trump's mouth as predicted.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
Re: Re: Iran war 3/8/26+ (cont. from other thread)
By metmike - March 10, 2026, 12:06 p.m.
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Donald Trump was caught completely off guard to start this week, not anticipating the market's reaction but he's now dialing this in with his words and actions because he NOW understands the NEGATIVE market impact of the Netanyahu/Trump war in Iran.
Donald Trump cares tremendously about stock market highs as he's bragged about being responsible for them many dozens of times during his 2nd term. The stock market is more important than Iran to him!
His legacy is tied to low gas prices as he has bragged dozens of times about how low they are because of him. Gas prices in the United States are more important to him than Iran.
He did not anticipate this last week but he does understand it very clearly now. This makes him acting like he did last week and over the weekend MUCH LESS likely. However, this is Donald Trump. Nobody knows what he will do next (including Donald Trump). He will continue to say crazy things that contradict previous statements but its likely that he will try to avoid decisions that potentially wreck what he wants to be his legacy tied to stock market highs and low gas prices which is his TOP priority.
The gap Sunday Night was filled quickly by Donald Trump's mouth. However, the initial break away gap is still wide open.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
Zelensky says Ukraine sent interceptor drones and operators to US bases in Jordan
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More profound evidence of Donald Trump's huge pivot THIS week because he got caught off guard by the markets reaction to the war. NOW, he suddenly had a "good call" with Putin which suddenly justifies him loosening the oil sanctions. We all know what REALLY happened is that oil prices surged and he Donald Trumped/jaw boned the markets by manufacturing crude bearish news that could only come from the most powerful man in the world! That's exactly what he did!!!
By metmike - March 11, 2026, 11:35 a.m.
The horizontal lines are the gaps. First one, break away gap from the market open after the Netanyahu/Trump was with Iran. 2nd one from the escalation last weekend. The 2nd gap was quickly filled after Donald Trump told us the war was almost complete.
The market is just waiting to hear what comes out of the mouth of the most powerful man in the world next(which even Donald Trump doesn't know). There could be additional unintended consequences that were set in motion when we attacked Iran that impact short term prices.
The pattern the past 2 days is pausing configuration, waiting on the latest NEWS. This is a market trading the NEWS.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
Donald Trump spent the day trying to jawbone the crude lower and stocks higher (to no avail) but we're facing the law of unintended consequences now because of somebody that is incapable of understanding the negative impacts of his ruinous decisions.
Original gap on the left because of the Netanyahu/Trump war.
Bigger filled gap at the top, filled with a reversal lower day on Monday and spike lower, which has found support/buying and could be a bull flag, now testing the bottom of the big gap which were also last week's highs.
Iran may actually have more impact than Donald Trump on the oil market news the next few days. Impossible to know where this will end but we do know with certainty how big of a mistake it was to start it, especially when Iran had agreed to Donald Trump's terms to draw down the enriched uranium just BEFORE the attack(which is actually why Netanyahu attacked to prevent a peace agreement between the US and Iran).
This will be 1 time when Donald Trump might defy Netanyahu because Donald Trump's legacy is at stake with a failing stock market and gas prices soaring higher vs Bibi's desire to turn Iran into a pile of rubble in order to protect Israel with the help of the most powerful military in the world.
Donald Trump will end the war because of concern for Donald Trump's legacy.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
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Donald Trump's attempts to jawbone the oil market lower today with unhinged lies, including the interview that I just watched actually caused the oil market to go higher after he announced this release.
Putin is loving this gift to him from Donald Trump. Now that Donald Trump took off the sanctions and he's getting the best prices in the last 4 years.
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tjc complimented my choice of the SPR previously this week in the discussions. Since that is at the forefront, thanks to Donald Trump now its even more appropriate.
Re: Re: Market opens tonight, 3-1-2026/crude
By metmike - March 7, 2026, 9:23 p.m.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W
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Joe Biden released a massive amount of SPR oil after the Ukraine war started in order to cover for his blunder from a refusal to negotiate with Russia(that led to the war) and the high oil prices that resulted. There was no emergency, just high prices.
The SPR was never replenished. This was odd recently when crude dropped and we had the opportunity to refill the SPR at real cheap prices but the refill rates were not that great. Possibly because forecasts were for even lower crude prices but they totally blew that chance.
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With the release of another 172 million barrels from the SPR, the amount in the SPR will be drawn down to the lowest level in its existence. All because of Joe Biden's war with Russia and now Netanyahu/Trumps war with Iran.
He claimed today that he filled the SPR up to record levels during his 1st term so now he's just taking some of that out. His first term was 2017-2020. The amount of oil in the SPR went DOWN during those years.
Crude has quietly risen $18 (to almost $95) just since the 1PM low of yesterday! Normally, this move alone would be quite notable. But after Monday’s near all time extreme volatility, it seems relatively orderly.
Thanks, Larry!
That had to be a huge shock to Donald Trump!
On Monday, he did a 180 with regards to the length of the war and jawboned the market to plunge much lower.
So today, he anticipated the same thing and ................surprise! After the announcement of the SPR releases, crude went UP $5 instead of down.
When a market acts bullish/goes up on bearish news..............watch out.
Orrrrr, the market may interpret that to mean that this must be REALLY serious for an action like this to take place.
We're back above last week's highs and into the gap area again. Like Larry stated. Take away the less than 1 day spike up and we're at new highs for the move and highest in awhile with the bulls back to being firmly in control.
It's all about the news and the market can no longer believe anything that Donald Trump says...................unless he says: It's over, we're pulling out" Or there’s a ceasefire and we’re negotiating.
It’s interesting now with negotiations. I think Iran will get a better deal than before., when they were going to use up their enriched uranium for not much in return.
Now, they will insist that there is an assurance that the US and Israel NOT attack anymore. And they have Donald Trump by the balls.
There is nothing more important to Donald Trump than his legacy and the importance of people adulating him today.
ii88he wants people to remember him as King of the stock market highs and low energy prices.
However, we;re deeply into the realm of "unintended consequences" of this war with Iran now having a huge say in what happens to the price.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
Pictures of burning ships >> words
Hi Patrick,
It looks like your image didn't copy. I've had that happen before. It's probably related tot the site. Please try again.
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Everybody knows that the US and Israel have the greatest military's in history and can obliterate Iran........which is happening. One of the psychopaths in power exploiting that overwhelming power for their agenda has overlooked some things things and the law of unintended consequences. I strongly believe that Netanyahu probably saw this coming and doesn't care. After watching what he did to Gaza, we got a crystal clear view of how his mind works. Iran is the much bigger and REAL threat to Israel. The price of oil going up and the stock market are like a pimple on an elephant's butt compared to how important it is for him to do what he sucked Donald Trump into doing FOR HIM.
Donald Trump did it because he thought it would be easy and make him look great and that's how Netanyahu sold it to him as. Donald Trump the world's most powerful man, uniting his army, the most powerful army in human history, with the world's 2nd most powerful army. How could they lose? He been bragging from the start of this. "We're winning so much, we don't know what to do"
And their mission would eliminate the worlds biggest terror sponsoring country and make the entire world safe and the entire world would be thanking Donald Trump and see him as a great leader and hero forever in history.
I assure you that's how Netanyahu sold this to Donald Trump who has been using that exact tactic on Donald Trump for years because it has continually worked. It works because Netanyahu, like others (that suck up to him) understand Donald Trump's pathologically thinking psyche that cherishes anyone and anything that adulates Donald Trump and provides paths for Donald Trump's greatness. It completely blinds him to any other realities!!!
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I'm going to start a separate thread on the SPR and also discuss the difference between types of crude and the demand/supply dynamics of US and global crude oil since it will be numerous posts long.
I wasn't posting a picture.
Just a reminder that the actual news from the Persian Gulf is bloody & awful.
Thanks for elaborating, Patrick. For sure a great point!
The source I use is not graphing correctly again.
Oil gapped above $100 and hit $102. The news will determine what happens.
Analyzing charts might be fun right now but are even LESS predictive than usual.
Psychopath, Donald Trump's mouth, actions and Iran's actions(with Psychopath Netanyahu's actions potentially playing a role) are in the drivers seat determining the price of crude this week.
7pm: The small gap higher was filled. Technically its a gap and crap but doesn't mean much here. I suspect that at some point, probably soon this will get resolved one way or the other and prices come all the way back down. However, as the "expression goes" the sky is darkest just before dawn.
A tremendous amount of risk premium is in the market but at the same time, the uncertainty includes it getting worse exists.
As expected, news is dominated the price movement. In this case, oil tankers getting thru the Gulf of Hormuz is bearish today.
This source continues to have flawed graphing, as the price hit $102 on Sunday Evening but its close enough right now to depict the last month's major ups and downs with value to the understanding.
We can see the extreme peak on Sunday Evening, 3-8. The huge drop the following day when Donald Trump completely changed his tune/verbiage from a lengthier version of war-at least 3-4 weeks, the prior week, suddenly to "a brief excursion" after he got surprized by the high oil prices.
An attempt to bring them down further by announcing the massive release of SPR oil caused the exact opposite impact and oil prices went up $6 immediately after that, climbing to a secondary peak yesterday/Sunday evening as the latest news was that ships were NOT passing thru the Gulf of Hormuz.
Maybe the Donald Trump will suddenly call off his war and declare the biggest victory by the widest margin in US military history and claim that Iran is obliterated forever...........15 minutes from now and oil will drop $XX/barrels in a day.
Or maybe something else will happen but elevated fuel prices on top of the ruinous tariffs, inflation and a weakening economy suggest that he wants out of the his war ASAP because every day that it continues means MORE punishment to consumers of the United States and the entire world!!!
There is the tremendous cost to tax payers for the military operation (tens of billions).
Where do we go from here?
Donald Trump is getting his rocks off as the most powerful man, with the most powerful military bombing the heck out of a country that hasn't much to fight back. This has overpowered his ability to think rationally and to make smart decisions for the American people.
He created a video of the war depicting it as a video game and him having fun playing it and sent it out, then a couple of days later said that he had already destroyed a place but might go back and bomb it again for fun.
https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/2032115039985881556?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-15/live-updates-war-in-the-middle-east-iran-us-israel/106456330
Anybody that disagrees about this being a pathologically thinking psychopath has an opinion that completely disagrees with ALL the authentic facts.
The point is that trying to predict what a psychopath, who is also the most powerful man in the world will do next is very challenging here.
Except that it will be something that he thinks makes Donald Trump look great.
High gas prices don't make Donald Trump look great, so I think that will end his "FUN" war.
We still have to keep in mind that Netanyahu is the guy calling the shots by convincing Donald Trump that destroying Iran would help create the illusion(in DT's mind) of him being the greatest president in history.
Netanyahu cares less about high gas prices, Americans or the rest of the world.
He only wants to destroy his enemies and stay out of prison for all his corruption(with his trials being postponed as long as the chaos continues). Netanyahu may be a roaring psychopath but he is a brilliant charlatan and strategist that has managed to commit an horrific genocide, violate laws, start wars, screw over the United States big time and lie constantly and get treated like this by our morally bankrupt, bought and paid for cruds in Congress. The Rs gave his genocide 55 standing ovations!!!
Is it any wonder the same Rs also support this current war???
A standing ovation to genocide
The applause for a leader who has officially killed over 39,000 people since Oct. 7 has gone down in history as a significant stain on humanity for those applauding
https://www.setav.org/en/a-standing-ovation-to-genocide
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For those that disagree with the politics and don't like it being discussed on the Trading Forum.......the oil market is almost totally trading off of those exact politics in the Middle East right now.
Trying to understand them is part of trying to predict where we might go from here. We can't decide what the market is trading on or what is most important and so THE POLITICAL NEWS will continue to dominate the oil and many other markets for awhile yet.
If you don't like the adjectives that I use to accurately describe the main characters in our political news, take it up with them for being that way, not with the person objectively looking at the big picture and all the items that make it.
Those main characters caused all this chaos, entirely for their self serving interests and deserve no defending or allegiance by people that they are hurting.
Opinions vs authentic facts
Started by metmike - March 13, 2026, 11:24 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/118642/
https://www.newsweek.com/iran-oil-flows-from-strait-of-hormuz-with-us-blessingfor-now-11695976
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https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/18/business/oil-prices-fall-iraq-exports-turkey-intl
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https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 week: Still not graphing the highs accurately which were $102 on Sunday Night. Latest NEWS was bullish this morning and so the spike up.
2. 1 month: Spike up on March 1st. High from March15th. Uptrend line and potential ascending triangle that is meaningless at projecting the future which is controlled by NEWS about the meaningless(for US interests) Iran war.
3. 1 year: COVID low 2020. Ukraine war 2022. Well defined down channel 2024-5-6. Historic spike up at the end from the unintended consequences of the unprovoked Donald Trump war against Iran (Netanyahu likely knew this would happen).
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By metmike - March 13, 2026, 8:40 a.m.The law of unintended consequences!
https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~haroldfs/540/handouts/french/unintconseq.html
The first and most complete analysis of the concept of unintended consequences was done in 1936 by the American sociologist Robert K. Merton. In an influential article titled "The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action," Merton identified five sources of unanticipated consequences. The first two, and the most pervasive, were ignorance and error.
Merton labeled the third source the "imperious immediacy of interest." By that he was referring to instances in which an individual wants the intended consequence of an action so much that he purposefully chooses to ignore any unintended effects.
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https://garyacosta.com/current-affairs/the-law-of-unintended-consequences/
Unexpected drawbacks – This type of unintended consequence occurs when the goal is to improve “A,” we later learn that we made “B” worse in the process. These are also referred to as “externalities.” The mass adoption of the automobile in the early part of the 20th century provided many benefits but created unexpected drawbacks such as air pollution and car accidents.
Perverse results – ‘Perverse Results’ happen when our goal is to improve “A” but we actually make “A” worse. These are often the most frustrating category of unintended consequences.
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The US doesn't even have a person in Iran that they can negotiate deals with now!!!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/118250/
Psychopaths
Started by metmike - March 16, 2026, 10:50 p.m.The state of GA suspended its gas tax for two months starting yesterday. That amounts to a reduction of 0.33/gallon for gasoline and 0.37/gallon for diesel.
Thanks, Larry!
Good for consumers in your state but a massive loss in revenue!
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