3-12-26 SPR oil/gas prices
9 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - March 12, 2026, 11:26 a.m.

SPR oil, which sits stored in numerous places in the US and world with nobody thinking much about it for years and years. 

Until an oil crisis like this one happens. We all know what caused this but now, we have no idea of how it might end or how long it might go and the person most responsible has no idea either and because he let it go down this path, the dynamics have gone beyond his control and every American is paying a price that releasing SPR oil, clearly can't help with.

Whoops!

                Re: Re: Re: Will Trump Blink?            

                           By metmike - March 12, 2026, 11:17 a.m.          

+++++++++++++++

Strategic Petroleum Reserve (United States)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Petroleum_Reserve_(United_States)

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is an emergency stockpile of petroleum maintained by the United States Department of Energy (DOE). It is the largest publicly known emergency supply in the world; its underground tanks in Louisiana and Texas have capacity for 714 million barrels (113,500,000 m3).[1] The United States started the petroleum reserve in 1975 to mitigate future supply disruptions as part of the international Agreement on an International Energy Program, after oil supplies were interrupted during the 1973–1974 oil embargo.[2]

  undefined

Comments
By metmike - March 12, 2026, 11:29 a.m.
Like Reply

           

https://www.gasbuddy.com/gaspricemap?lat=38.822395&lng=-96.591588&z=4



This graph below is updated daily without me doing anything. 

Gas Price Charts

https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts


Every day that passes by with MUCH higher gas prices and this being the headline news (that Donald Trump cares so much about) is a day closer to the elections in November and causes X number of ADDITIONAL people to feel betrayed by his promises to the American people.  Everybody notices this impact with their pocket books when filling up their vehicles.  15 gallons X $1 for instance is $15 more to fill up a tank of gas X 100 million vehicles = $1.5 Billion with a B.

That's how much LESS money that consumers have to spend, every time they fill up their gas tanks.  Being the rich person's president that ignores the needs of the poor who are most impacted is not an option here.

This also increases the cost of moving goods across the country.

This is very stifling to the economy too!!! The longer this war continues, the HUGER the impact will be on the economy.

Energy is the lifeblood of every developed countries economy. The graph above is worth a thousand words and a billion dollars of losses to Americans in totality for every fill up and that is multiplied by significant economic losses. Not an opinion. It's basic math and economic principles.

If this goes on for weeks, it could be the driving force to trigger a major economic recession(added to the already major damage from the ruinous tariffs).

Donald Trump is dug in on the tariffs but he knows that he has to do something to get the price of gas down ASAP and I feel confident that's where his mind is right now since it couldn't be more crystal clear to EVERYBODY (unfortunately doing damage control for a whopper of a blunder caused by pathological thinking, instead of making smart decisions to start with).

By metmike - March 12, 2026, 12:05 p.m.
Like Reply

This source is NOT graphing correctly. The highs today were just over $97 and we almost tested the top of the 2nd, much bigger gap higher from last Sunday Night which was around $98. We've had a small pullback from that level in the last hour.

The first gap higher from the Sunday Night after Trump/Netanyahu attacked Iran unprovoked is still wide open on the left/bottom.

Eventually, I think that we will fill that gap once the war is over and Donald Trump is likely now focusing on that. 

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil


By metmike - March 12, 2026, 12:27 p.m.
Like Reply

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCESTUS1&f=W

++++++++++++++++++++++++++


https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W

Joe Biden released a massive amount of SPR oil after the Ukraine war started in order to cover for his blunder from a refusal to negotiate with Russia(that led to the war) and the high oil prices that resulted. There was no emergency, just high prices.

The SPR was never replenished. This was odd recently when crude dropped and we had the opportunity to refill the SPR at real cheap prices but the refill rates were not that great. Possibly because forecasts were for even lower crude prices but they totally blew that chance.  

++++++++++++

In thinking about this more, I think that Donald Trump intentionally did NOT fill the SPR because the additional buying demand would have INCREASED the price of crude, just like RELEASING crude from the SPR is intended to suppress prices.

DT is mainly focused on doing things to make the price of gas go lower and filling the SPR, counter intuitively can cause gas prices to actually go higher in the short run.

Because DT sees himself as the King of low gas prices, Iran has him by the balls and he will do ANYTHING to stop this. Of course he will completely make up his reasons to cover up THE REAL reasons (price of gas and stock market dropping) but I think the lunatic narratives from DT last week about this lasting for weeks, for the regime to throw down their weapons and surrender, for the people of Iran to take their country and so on are being replaced with "this is just a brief incursion" already as he tries to back out of his catastrophic decision to bomb Iran/start an unprovoked war because the leader of another country manipulated him using his mental illness. 

+++++++

Yesterday, Donald Trump claimed that he filled the SPR up during his 1st term and he was just taking out the oil that he put in there. He has soooo lost touch with reality on his lies. They already defined him during his 1st term but his progressive dementia is making it impossible for him to tell the difference anymore. 

Just look at the graph above. The SPR went DOWN during Donald Trumps first term.  If anything, he might have been using it to try to keep oil/gas prices lower for political reasons.

+++++++++++++++++++

Can U.S. strategic petroleum reserves calm a tight market exacerbated by the Russia–Ukraine conflict?

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420723007730

Highlights

  • We examine the price management role of the U.S. SPR under typical market conditions and in extreme emergencies.
  • •SPR releases and OPEC output increases decrease inflation; expect for hyper-backwardation markets.
  • •A hyper-backwardation market was seen in 2022.
  • •The U.S. excess domestic demand relative to domestic supply raises concerns about domestic energy security.
  • The 2022 unprecedentedly large SPR drawdowns are likely to have caused the market to panic and contributed to gasoline price increases.
  • •The U.S. SPR is an ineffective price control mechanism during crises.
  • •The U.S. SPR may not have the strategic value previously thought in an extremely tight oil market.
By metmike - March 12, 2026, 12:42 p.m.
Like Reply

United States Oil

https://www.worldometers.info/oil/us-oil/


The graph at the top shows that we produce MORE crude in the United States than we consume. .....but there is more to it than that.

There are different kinds of crude and the US does not produce enough of the heavy., high sulfur, sour crude that our refineries are designed to use in order to convert it to the refined products. 

So we MUST import some of that type of crude, even as we export the sweet, low sulfur, light crude oil that we have an excess of. 

By metmike - March 12, 2026, 12:56 p.m.
Like Reply




The U.S. primarily imports heavy crude oils from Canada and Mexico

https://www.api.org/energy-insights/charts-analysis/us-primarily-imports-heavy-crude-oils


By metmike - March 12, 2026, 1:02 p.m.
Like Reply

List of crude oil products

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crude_oil_products

The three most quoted oil products are North America's West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), Brent Crude from the North Sea, and Dubai Crude from UAE, and their pricing is used as a barometer for the entire petroleum industry, although, in total, there are 46 key oil exporting countries. Brent Crude is typically priced at about $2 over the WTI Spot price, which is typically priced $5 to $6 above the EIA's Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost (IRAC) and OPEC Basket prices.  WTI and Brent are quoted FOB specific locations, not FOB the oilfields.  For WTI, the delivery point is Cushing, Oklahoma; for Brent, it is Sullom Voe, located in Shetland, an island archipelago north of mainland Scotland.

Although crude oil assays evaluate various chemical properties of the oil, the two most important properties that determine a crude's value are its density (measured as API specific gravity) and its sulphur content (measured per mass). Crude oil is considered "heavy" if it has long hydrocarbon chains, or "light" if it has short hydrocarbon chains: an API gravity of 34 or higher is "light", between 31 and 33 is "medium", and 30 or below is "heavy". Crude is considered "sweet" if it is low in sulphur content (< 0.5%/weight), or "sour" if high (> 1.0%/weight). Generally, the higher the API gravity (the "lighter" it is), the more valuable the crude.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/00/Crude_oil_map.png


undefined


undefined

By metmike - March 12, 2026, 1:12 p.m.
Like Reply

Global strategic petroleum reserves

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_strategic_petroleum_reserves

Global strategic petroleum reserves (GSPR) refer to crude oil inventories (or stockpiles) held by the government of a particular country, as well as private industry, to safeguard the economy and help maintain national security during an energy crisis. Strategic reserves are intended to be used to cover short-term supply disruptions.

As of March 9, 2026, approximately 1.8 billion barrels (290,000,000 m3) of oil was held in strategic reserves by International Energy Agency member states.[1] In 2004, approximately 4.1 billion barrels (650,000,000 m3) of oil was held in these strategic reserves, of which 1.4 billion is government-controlled and the remainder held by private industry.[2] In February 2022, this amounted to close to two years' worth of net oil imports held in IEA member states' strategic petroleum reserves.[3] The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has consistently held the largest strategic reserve.[2][4] Some non-IEA countries have started work on their own strategic petroleum reserves. China has the largest of these new reserves.[5]Global oil consumption is in the region of 0.1 billion barrels (16,000,000 m3) per day.[6] The 4.1 billion barrels reserve held in 2004 would be equivalent to 41 days of current production.

++++++++++++++

How Strategic Petroleum Reserves Will Increase Global Security in 2026? Analysis Market Trends, Statistics & Facts and Country inside

https://www.sphericalinsights.com/blogs/how-strategic-petroleum-reserves-will-increase-global-security-in-2026-analysis-market-trends-statistics-facts-and-country-inside

Introduction

Strategic Petroleum Reserves are becoming a key component of global energy security in 2026, giving countries a crucial safety net against supply interruptions and geopolitical shocks. The ongoing dispute between Iran and Israel highlights how vulnerable Middle Eastern oil shipments are, which raises questions about price volatility and instability in the region. While nations with low capacity, like India, are still susceptible to unexpected shortages, countries with strong reserves, like South Korea, Japan, and the United States, are better positioned to stabilise markets and reassure customers. In a world where oil is still essential despite the accelerated energy shift, nations may promote collective security, increase resilience against energy crises, and reduce the risks of conflict-driven supply disruptions by developing and coordinating an SPR strategy.

Global Oil Storage Market

++++++++++++

I will site the study from the previous page that showed that our SPR has a limited  impact on prices and that this article above is SPECULATIVE. 

Regardless, it seems like an excellent idea.

By metmike - March 12, 2026, 1:21 p.m.
Like Reply

This data is slightly old but still solid.

Energy

Visualizing the World’s Largest Oil Producers

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-worlds-largest-oil-producers/

largest oil producers

By metmike - March 12, 2026, 1:26 p.m.
Like Reply