The upper level jet stream (above 30,000 feet)  will be pretty strong with close to a150 mph jet streak in our area. It's been stronger before for our most violent tornado outbreaks but this is decent.

Of major note is the NEGATIVE TILT to this anomalous trough. Negatively tilted,upper level troughs cause unique dynamics, explained below that enhance severe weather risks. 

Why is Your Trough Negatively Tilted?

https://aerocrewnews.com/2019/03/01/why-is-your-trough-negatively-tilted/

The most incredible thing related to this system is the temperature contrast on either side. On the warm side Sunday, temperatures in Evansville, IN will top 70 degrees with southerly winds gusting above 40 mph.

On Monday, the temperature will be 40 degrees colder and the northwest winds gusting to 30 mph will make it feel 60 degrees colder!!!

However, there will be times this Spring when we DO have much higher threats that justify being especially vigilant because those times will include the threat of strong/violent tornadoes that are rare but kill the most people. That's when being in a safe place saves lives. 

When will those highest risk times be? We will know and identify them WELL BEFORE it happens. 

1. When the Storm Prediction Center has at least a moderate, level 4 out of 5 risk. When they have a 5 out of 5 high risk, it's imperative to stay tuned during that type of severe weather outbreak and be ready to act, while still keeping in mind that even during the worst tornado outbreaks, what we are doing is REDUCING the risk of being killed by a tornado from a very small number to a MUCH SMALLER number by taking actions.

2. The Storm Prediction Center will use this verbiage: "This is a particularly dangerous situation".

We know what conditions cause those type of tornadoes with high confidence days in advance but will NEVER be able to predict them with pinpoint accuracy until the storms causing them are in progress, 

All tornadoes are absolutely NOT CREATED EQUAL!!!

The total lives lost from 1,000 EF0 tornadoes might not add up to the lives lost from just 1 really bad EF5 tornado!

A 150 mph EF3 wind has 256 times more damaging power than a 75 mph EFO wind!

A 225 mph EF5 wind has 256 X 256 times more damaging power than a 75 mph EFO wind!!!!

65,000 times more damaging power in a strong EF5 tornado compared to an EF0 tornado!!!. That's not a mistake or typo in the math.

That's based on physical laws and tens of thousands of surveys of tornado damage which were used to contruct the Enhanced Fujita tornado scale. 

     Mike Simon Tornado Damage Intensity; Enhanced Fujita Scale    

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-653tSCB68

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Understanding this in 2026 and having the technology to warn people long before the life threatening weather makes it a much, MUCH safer world compared to 100 years ago. People in that age found out about the strong tornadoes or other extreme weather events...............when they were actually getting clobbered by them!

Despite this, there are still limitations based on the worst EF5 tornadoes like the one that struck Joplin, MO in May 2011!

Joplin tornado

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joplin_tornado

Progress Toward National Resiliency: NIST Marks Joplin Tornado 5th Anniversary

https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2016/05/progress-toward-national-resiliency-nist-marks-joplin-tornado-5th

We should note that the scale below is LOGARITHMIC in order to keep the data manageable because of the tremendous drop in values.

The highest numbers on the left top/left that are approaching 10 deaths/million are actually 100+ times greater  than the lowest numbers on the right that are LESS THAN .1 deaths/million!

The Joplin tornado in May 2011 caused the huge spike higher and 1 outlying year since the 1970's. 

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Climate change has been helping too by warming the highest latitudes the most and weakening cold fronts and jet streams! This has reduced the number of the strongest tornadoes by around 50%!
This thread is about TORNADOES not about other impacts from climate change.

Recent Tornadoes are Due to Unusually Cold Weather

 May 29th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

Weather becomes LESS extreme in several realms when you reduce the planets temperature contrast with latitude!

Hey mm,

Just wanted to say thanks for all the educational "stuff" you take the time to post and explain on this site.

I wouldnt be exposed to it otherwise. A lot of that "not be exposed to it" is my laziness but much is , I guess, not having been made aware or piqued of/to it.

Hope this is somewhat  clear- its a compliment.

   John

Thanks very much, John!

That was a high end compliment that means a great deal to me and is much appreciated. We have several thousand people that are readers but don't post and one of my biggest objectives is exactly what you just described for those people. 

I've noted from the past that you're comments suggest you're  true gentleman with a positive outlook and loads of intelligence and respect for others here...........that doesn't let political differences interfere when communicating. 

I know where several of our posters live already. I forgot where  you live? So I can keep that in mind when forecasting weather. 

You know this but my weather is Evansville IN-centric not just because I live here but we have  1,000+ readers that follow during severe weather events from our county and many of these posts are localized for them but I try to keep the big picture in mind for everybody..........while having fun and learning myself. Not just weather but  other stuff, especially trading, climate and politics.

Not much change in the outlook since late yesterday but we should get updates today with changes as we get closer to the event. Good chance for them to update to a moderate risk over Evansville.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

1. Overall risk

2. Risk for severe storm winds. Center is 45%+ within 25 miles of any 1 points.

3. Risk for a tornado 5%+. There could be a strong tornado.

Thanks for the kind words Mike.

I'm located in Toms River NJ-coastal mid jersey. Im not on the water but nearby. We are affected largely by the coastal sweep. I enjoy watching your stuff mid-west and the southern turmoils travel across and up to metro NY. That generally includes enough of my area to satisfy the curious. I have history in western SC and coastal NC adding to mix.

I enjoy checking in around here for some conversation, opinions and adding my 2 c now and again. I dont have much appetite for arguing- not to say I dont excited, pissed or discussed like the next guy but live and let live-"do onto others" etc etc . People dont screw with me too much too long cause I do bite and things work out. I've got more than a few bumps. Watcha think? , ya get it for free?  Hee Hee.

 I love the character studies 

  John

Great comments, John.

That was a whopper of a snowstorm that you guys got last month! Maybe some of the biggest snow piles not completely melted yet?

                Nor'Easter            

                            21 responses |                

                Started by mikempt - Feb. 22, 2026, 12:53 p.m.        

    https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/118086/

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On the other hand, you've had some decent snow melting weather recently. This was the last 2 weeks below.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

The only change since yesterday is the Storm Prediction Center doubling the chance for tornadoes(potentially strong) to a 10% area, that get's up to the Ohio River. We should note that these shaded areas are not like a well defined boundary between different things on either side. They are GENERAL geographical areas that highlight X amount of estimated risk which can extended BEYOND the boundary when the event unfolds.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

1. Pretty close to yesterday's map. 45% chance of a severe storm within 25 miles of any point.

2. Tornado risk bumped up to 10% in yellow area within 25 miles of any point.

3. Risks move rapidly to the East Coast on Monday

The ingredients are in place for this storm to rapidly develop on Sunday. The biggest missing ingredient will be high moisture from the Gulf of Mexico which will REDUCE the instability(a good thing).

The maps below are from 4pm. 

https://www.mesonet.org/weather/air-temperature/national-wind-chill-heat-index

https://thermastor.com/dew-point-and-weather-maps/

Current Hazards at the link below. These maps will be updated constantly for you. 

For your NWS and county, go to the link below.

 Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county. 

https://www.weather.gov/                                                                                                                 

Current Conditions below updated every few minutes.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19

Not everybody is going to have severe weather on Sunday. However, 100% of the area will have the extreme cold on Tuesday morning which will cause varying degrees of damage to vegetation that is advanced ahead of schedule by the recent warmth.

The early blooming flowers will all be killed for this year. They are perennials and will  return next year. Buds on other trees and plants that are advanced will receive some damage, depending on the plant/tree and how far along. I think alot of them have not started swelling enough to be killed(hopefully) Trees/plants that are flowering  early right now could see the blooms killed before they set.   Early leafing trees may lose their small leaves and need to start over in a couple of weeks after they recover. 

This doesn't happen to this extent often enough to accurately predict the consequences. Regardless, all the trees and plants will recover even if we see losses this year. The losses would be much greater if this happened in several weeks. 

This was the warmth the past 2 weeks:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

These are the predicted lows for Tuesday morning, by far the coldest. This cold snap will be sharp but brief. An air mass this HUGE does not miss!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83851

The record low for March 17th is 13 Deg. and we should be close to that.