Your concerns are understandable, and many experienced traders have raised similar questions over the last few years. Market structure has changed significantly, and the factors you mentioned — crypto, meme stocks, prediction markets, and the AI boom — have all contributed to a perception that price discovery is no longer driven purely by fundamentals.

First, regarding cryptocurrencies, the issue is not only regulation but also market structure. A large portion of trading volume is concentrated on a small number of exchanges, and there have been repeated allegations of wash trading, liquidity recycling, and artificial volume creation. When a market allows large amounts of capital to move without transparent oversight, confidence in fair pricing naturally declines.

Second, the rise of meme stocks showed that market capitalization is no longer always tied to earnings or cash flow. Companies like Tesla became heavily influenced by narrative, liquidity, and retail flows rather than traditional valuation models. This does not necessarily mean the market is broken, but it does mean that excess liquidity and concentrated capital can distort prices for long periods of time.

Third, prediction markets and event-based betting platforms blur the line between finance and gambling. When participants can potentially influence the outcome of the event they are betting on, it raises legitimate concerns about fairness and regulation. Even when legal, these markets operate under different rules than traditional exchanges, which adds to the feeling that the overall system is becoming less transparent.

Fourth, the current enthusiasm around artificial intelligence stocks does resemble past speculative cycles. History shows similar patterns during the dot-com bubble and the housing boom before 2007. Rapid capital inflows into a narrow sector can push valuations far beyond realistic expectations, and when liquidity tightens, those same sectors often correct sharply.

As for commodities, they are generally considered more grounded because they are tied to physical supply and demand. However, they are not immune to distortion. Large institutional flows, derivatives markets, algorithmic trading, and geopolitical events can all move prices far away from short-term fundamentals. Futures markets in particular can reflect positioning and liquidity conditions more than physical reality at times.

That said, commodities still tend to return to fundamental value faster than many other asset classes, because production costs, inventory levels, and real consumption eventually matter. This is why many traders still view metals, energy, and agricultural markets as more reliable for long-term cycle analysis, even though short-term volatility can be extreme.

In summary, it is not that markets have become completely dishonest, but they have become more complex, more liquidity-driven, and more influenced by large capital flows than in the past. For traders, this means that relying only on fundamentals is often not enough anymore. Understanding positioning, liquidity, sentiment, and macro cycles has become just as important as analyzing earnings or economic data--BLACK ROCK --? Aladin>>?

You really hit on one of our best topics ever here, Patrick.

I'll comment more as soon as I get the chance.

Larry retired from trading exactly because of the changes in how natural gas trades compared to 2+ decades ago and I noticed the exact same thing which has made position trading extremely tough. 

I changed from a position trader to a day trader using weather model changes.

More shortly. Super Duper topic!