Might be the reason NG didn't sell off more.  

Jim,

 Perhaps due to the uncertainty but Gulf storms are not the bullish animals they used to be since production there is so much lower than it was last decade.

Positivity!  I'm long and looking for support.  (G)

I am watching this one closely, heading to Grand Isle, LA to fish Wednesday. The ensembles for the most part keep this system in the eastern Gulf due to a strong trough moving into the mid section of the country. I hope it moves east.  Fly fishing in 50MPH winds would be tough. The Canadian model has been the worse case scenario. Much stronger, and farther west. 

I hope the weather works out for you.  That would be unfortunate to have a trip planned and have it ruined by a TS.

Soon to be tropical storm "Michael"

Main page:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

5 day forecasts:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?cone#contents

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/071453.shtml?

Every time I look at the discussion at NHC the predicted peak speed is up another 5 mph
& while was was typing -

Tropical Storm Michael Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018 1155 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... 
Satellite wind data indicate that the depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Michael. The maximum winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate Michael. 

SUMMARY OF 1155 AM CDT...1655 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Now projecting to 100mph
That broke the trend!

Up to 110 mph just before hitting the FL Panhandle early Wednesday.

Now up to 120 mph early Wednesday.