election markets
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Started by bear - Nov. 6, 2018, 11:57 p.m.

some of you may have occasionally looked at the iowa election futures.  

just an interesting observation.  of course the odds of something may go up and down,  like the odds of the dems winning a chamber of congress.  it went up and down and up and down,... but...

the moment that the pubs voted to confirm bret to the supreme court, the odds of the dems taking a chamber of congress suddenly jump dramatically (over 20% increase in a just a few days).  

so with that supreme court vote,  the pubs shot themselves in the foot.  because of that vote,  they gained a judge, but lost a chamber of congress.  

of course a hard nose scientist could say it seems to be an obvious strong correlation, but correlation is not the same as cause and effect.

(note- the graph of each chamber separately is not as obvious,  but the chart of congress in general is very obvious).

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