US ES stayed the same at 955M bu and world stocks went up 3 MTs. I guess we go back to the Chinese White Knight bean buyer and hope he saves the day.
The positive news will be that it wasn't more negative than it already was.
Normally, I support what Trump does...in most cases. But I think he duped the Saudi's and I hope I am wrong, but I think he may be playing farmers a little bit. So are the farmers going to be able to call the banks and say hey.....China is going to start buying pretty soon so hold off on Foreclosing on my house.
Payments to farmers affected by the Trump Administration's trade policies are being delayed as the White House is expecting China will soon start purchasing U.S. soybeans again, Reuters reports Tuesday, citing "three sources familiar with the matter."
I support much of Trumps agenda also. Do not know who is making the decision to hold up the payment in hopes of a china purchase but they are wrong. the damage was done last May and June. I realize we have budget problems but in this case I think if we simply pull the congresses funding for prostitutes and pay the tariff payment things would work out better
It just bothers me that the government is getting a windfall of sorts from the tariffs. They should be using that money to help the people affected by the tariffs and it is more than apparent that it is bean farmers. They would get more support for tariffs if they were using that money in the right way.
Jim, sure hope you are not implying strippers and booze is not a good use
Who am I to question how our politicians spend our money? Maybe they do better work after they let their hair down a little.
Looks like I was right about beans, it was positive news yesterday that it wasn't more negative.
new rumor of a 4 million bu bean sale
up another 10 cents
Enjoy it while you can. Unless bean acres drop by quite a bit, ES for 2019/2020 could be up around 1.2BB-1.5BB+ at a minimum! That's billion with a B.
They bought some 18 cargoes of beans today as well as up to
10 MMT of corn..........Trump always has our backs. Stop
over producing if you want higher prices.
latest info...30 bean cargoes out of PNW and 10 more out of gulf......
"Stop over producing if you want higher prices."
Farmers just do their best to grow crops............blame climate change and the increase in CO2 for the excessive part of production(technology has contributed 75% of the increase).
If we turned the atmospheric clocks back to when mcfarm was a kid, production would plunge.
There's only been 1 major, widespread cornbelt drought in the last 30 years. The 6 highest soybean yielding years.........have been the last 6 years.
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/soyyld.php
Anyone notice SH hit the 200 day ma and backed off. My work says this week the highs for the month are in for beans.
About. 02 cents
McFarm you might want to get better info
frey, my sources have been spot on since May when this started. They are not 100% but very good. As the details on these and more purchases are known we will find out how accurate they are today I guess. Just reviewed Elliot wave newest guidelines and most here would be shocked they can chart over 10 dollar beans shortly....do they know more than anyone else? Sometimes the do
If beans go to $10 (which anything is possible) it's only a snap reaction as equilibrium returns between SA and NA bean prices. If there isn't a weather event, it's all bad news for producers. SA can't keep adding 5% to their acreage every year. With the windfall they are getting right now, they have no reason to stop adding acreage for another year or two. What's Kory saying about the SA crop this year?
That told you all along that China had to buy from the US The rest of the world could not grow enough beans.
bean down .15 now
bad policy is bad policy
That's not entirely true. Business with the rest of the world picked up for the US, while a bigger percentagle of SA beans went to China. So China can carry China on it's own, but it couldn't do business with other countries and provide for China too. But what does SA care, they are getting top dollar from China.
if it bounces off 895-897 it will be fine
And because of this bad policy ( the Tariffs ) Brazil is not feeling the pain of lower prices so they will continue to add in production as long as they get the $2.50 premium to US beans which make the markets job almost impossible.
Market signals are ignored because of government decided to put their hands on the scales of economics.
bad policy is bad policy
You're right about the bean prices. You still haven't addressed how $12billion in diverted business is worst than giving up intellectual capital, or the $350 Billion more that we send them over what they send us.
The whole world knows that doing business with China is one sided. It's not a secret. Not a single President or politician has done anything other than give it lip service because they know the alternative would be unpopular...even though the US was bleeding fiscally. At least Trump did something.....
Export sales from this morning:
adding bad policy to a bad program will not fix either.
We need to fix US first.
CEO who went into these deals eyes wide open for the short term gain of millions and millions to their paycheck is what got us here in the first place. So tell me what has trump done to fix that? absolutely nothing
IP theft is a funny thing -- Did you know that the fact that a tire is round is considered IP So if the chinese make round tires then they stole that from someone somewhere. Now there is no value in that theft but it was stolen all the same, point being that some of the IP has no true value some does and some has great value but again we haven't figured out a way to seperate the real value and define how to stop it.
Lastly the knock off's lets take the $1200.00 Michael Koors purse - if somebody does a knockoff of it and sells in on the street for $100.00 Now don't get me wrong it still is an illegal knock off but the person that bought that $100 purse was not buying one for $1200.00 So the knock off did not cost MK $1200.00 in lost sales which is how the cost of these things are determined.
And again WE the people of the US are the Market for these things by and large so when are we going to get around to fixing US.
Lastly if you believe that we had to confront China on this 2 things needed to Happen
1) build a coalition that Included Europe, North and South america- Not like trump did was go pick fights with our friends first and watch them laugh at us when we needed them.
2) have a well thought plan of attack and a pathway to victory which he had neither.
Fixing things are possible but doing what trump did is going to lead us to a bad spot for long term gains and guess what China is already leading him to where they want him to be.
I keep hearing that Trump's trade war tariffs have helped the economy. If true why does our trade deficit with China keep growing?
http://tradingeconomics.com/china/balance-of-trade
Seeing is believing.
cliff I am pretty sure most of us recognize that after passing this trade disaster down the road for decades it would not magically be healed in a couple months
Beans have not been trading SA weather.......but its become more bearish.
A week ago, I was noting the bearishness of ARG and S.Brazil rains but overlooked dryness in #1 producer Mato Grosso in Central Brazil, which is around 30% of total Brazil production.
The last 2 days,especially on the Euro ensembles, rain chances go way up after around day 10.
Trump's "tariffically" false claims.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fact-check-friday-trumps-tariff-ically-false-claims/story?id=59690414
The tariff costs are being passed on to the consumers.
The "collateral damage" cost of lost markets for us commodity producers is being paid for by, you guessed it, commodity producers.
Mike nice call in the SA weather. If rains do develop hard to rally our beans even if China buys some. As I started earlier in this topic SH hit its 200 day ma and I had work that said the highs could come in this week. Selling rallies and would use the highs as stops for now. Come on China give us a small pop please.
Frey, I'm starting to understand your philosophy.
"Lastly the knock off's lets take the $1200.00 Michael Koors purse - if somebody does a knockoff of it and sells in on the street for $100.00 Now don't get me wrong it still is an illegal knock off but the person that bought that $100 purse was not buying one for $1200.00 So the knock off did not cost MK $1200.00 in lost sales which is how the cost of these things are determined"
You touched on the problem yet swept it under the rug. It's illegal. Someone went to college or is a talented artist or designer and Michael Koors paid for that design. Some China man buys a couple dollars worth of materials and makes something close to it and with no cost, sells it for $100, damages Koors reputation because of it's poor quality and diminished exclusivity and you are "Ok" with it.
They build a car that looks like a Volvo or Land Rover and you are ok with it.
I don't know what you do for a living, but I hope that someone doesn't take what you do and duplicate it, without all the work that went into developing your job and put you out of work.
kory just reported china bidding for beans out of PNW and commercials hesitant to meet them currently
also there is this...I guess there are more dry spots with more severity than I realized according to this article
China playing the game again. Let's buy but make the trade disappointed of the numbers. Brazil beans will be ready very soon for China. 90 day truce. They love it
Kory's latest from western Parana...dry and some of the hottest ever he says
With massive/widespread rains on the way:
Beans held $9 again, despite what looks like some great rains coming up over much of Brazil.
We did hit a new high for the move on Wednesday of last week of 928, then sold off to the lows of the week of $9 on Friday.
We opened at that level last night but immediately found a surge of buyers at $9 to just above it on the open last night.
If we were trading strictly weather, the bears had a good case to press the downside further today.
The tariff thing has some incredibly unusual dynamics, including a massive difference in price between South America-much higher and the US.
It's possible that the market thinks that if the trade war is resolved ALL of China's business will come this way because we are so much cheaper and the price disparity between the 2 countries will flatten out.
Or, that the massive rains in October while the crop was unharvested did more damage than what the last USDA report showed, which only reduced yields by 2%.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
6-day rainfall totals through 7 AM CDT on October 10, centered on the Kansas City area An area that could not buy a rain all summer gets 6-12" in a six-day time frame...in October
USDA November report:
Corn Production Down 1 Percent from October Forecast
Soybean Production Down 2 Percent
Cotton Production Down 7 Percent
Will the USDA cut production even more in the next report?
Export inspections from this morning:
Big increase for wheat from the previous week:
I told you flat out it was illegal didn't duch around it. The problem I was pointing out is how they come to the value of the Item infringed upon.
but lets take a look at the whole process : So Jim do you think the whole automobile industry all independently thought of going to big fins at the same time in the 50's and early 60's, how about power disc brakes, rack and pinion steering, Air conditioning in a car, electronic fuel injection, Power door locks, Radios, windshield wipers, do I need to go on to more. and which country do you think was the leader in developing these items ?
How about the Lazy boy company and their recliner how many others have copied that design over the years and did lazy boy steal it from somebody else?
and btw can you tell me who the USA stole the rocket science from and the Atomic Bomb from.
lastly nobody buys a knock off purse and thinks they are getting a MK purse so the quality of the product or lack thereof does not damage their reputation.
more talk of china buying cargos from delta and bidding in PNW and the market sleep walking thru it
You know the drill mcfarm. You can order beans, doesn't mean they will ultimately take them. If negotiations don't go well, they will cancel their orders.
Which way are you leaning? Do you think China and US will come to an agreement? I think it is unlikely.
To frey
https://jalopnik.com/the-ten-greatest-chinese-knockoff-cars-ever-made-1694449178
They say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, right? I'll bet Rolls is over joyed.
jim, you have to come knock on my storage bins to find out which way I am leaning
Great point!
so china ended with 14 cargos today from both ports
new china 2 week total 96.1 m boys
Is this new news? Trump said they were going to buy. IF we close lower today it would be the second time China sale market action bah
I guess yes, this is new. I said about 2 years ago I was going to buy a new combine and guess what? I am under my old one today putting new parts on.
They buy and the market fades. Maybe the market sees China buy beans and the US still has 90% of their ES on the shelf. There are a lot of beans to work through and SA's new crop is right around the corner....and so is a new US crop.
https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=823810&mid=7182104#M7182104
jim basis improvement
Have to keep things in perspective. Last year there was half as much bean ES and the price was $9.70 ish. Twice as many beans in stock and we are only $0.60-$0.70 cheaper? Count your blessings.
