KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, March 28, 2019
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 223K; previous 221K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous 9K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1750000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -27K)
8:30 AM ET. Week En U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 915.9K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 335.1K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 437.4K)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter rd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +2.4%; previous +2.6%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +1.8%; previous +1.8%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q%
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.6%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +2.5%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Ex (previous +1.7%)
Food/Energy, Q/Q%
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +2.8%)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Corporate Profits
9:00 AM ET. SEC Investor Advisory Committee Quarterly Meeting
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. February Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 103.2)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected +0.8%; previous +4.6%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -2.3%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1143B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -47B)
11:00 AM ET. March Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous -4)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 18)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 1)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 13)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
3:00 PM ET. February Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -4.5%)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, March 29, 2019
8:30 AM ET. February Personal Income & Outlays * Report does not include figures
on consumer spending, personal saving, and the PCE price
indexes for February. Instead, it will include consumer
spending, personal saving, the PCE price indexes, and related
data for January.
Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M%
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y%
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% ((previous +0.2%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% +1.9%
Personal Inc, M/M% (Jan'19)
9:45 AM ET. March ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 60.7; previous 64.7)
10:00 AM ET. March University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 97.8; previous 93.8)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 84.4)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.6%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.3%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 108.5)
10:00 AM ET. February New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (expected 620K; previous 607K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (expected +2.1%; previous -6.9%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 6.6)
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter U.S. International Investment Position
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The June NASDAQ 100 closes higher on Thursday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7279.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off December's low, last-September high crossing at 7767.00 is the next upside target. First resistance isthe 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7524.41. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at 7767.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7279.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7079.10.
The June S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off last-Friday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2755.86 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 2861.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73. First support is the 50-day moving low crossing at 2755.86. Second support is March's low crossing at 2728.00.
The Dow closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow resumes the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 26,241.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,427.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 26,282.97. Second resistance is the October 2018 high crossing at 26,951.81. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,427.78. Second support is March's low crossing at 25,208.00.
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June T-bonds closed up 2/32's at 150-04.
June T-bonds closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off March's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 152-01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 146-19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 150-21. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 152-01. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 147-29. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 146-19.
June T-notes closed down 55-pts. at 124.165.
June T-notes closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off last October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally. weekly resistance crossing at 125.265 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.019 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 124.310. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 125.265. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 123.238. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.019.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
May crude oil closed lower on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.39 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.27 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 60.39. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.39. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.33.
May heating oil closed lower on Thursday while extending the February-March trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.17 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 201.58. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.17. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.04. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 181.97.
May unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 183.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 200.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 192.23. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 200.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 183.84. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 173.95.
May Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the reaction low crossing at 2.620 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.819 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 2.897. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2.923. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 2.690. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.620.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The June Dollar closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, March's high crossing at 97.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is March's high crossing at 97.16. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is March's low crossing at 95.17. Second support is the late-January low crossing at 94.38.
The June Euro closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off March's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.62 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.52 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is March's high crossing at 115.33. Second resistance is the late-January high crossing at 116.46. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.62. Second support is the January 2017 low crossing at 110.16.
The June British Pound closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.3060 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 1.3603 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 1.3441. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 1.3603. First support is March's low crossing at 1.3026. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2854.
The June Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, the September-January downtrend line crossing near 1.0237 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0082 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.0190. Second resistance is the September-January downtrend line crossing near 1.0237. First support is March's low crossing at 0.9970. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9902.
The June Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 74.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.49 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.49. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.46. First support is March's low crossing at 74.43. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0906 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Multiple closes above Monday's high crossing at 0.0918 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 0.0918. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0922. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0900. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0893.
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April gold closed sharply lower on Thursday as it suffered the largest single-session percentage decline since August, to settle below the key $1,300 mark for the first time in two weeks.On Wednesday morning, a massive sell order hit the market at one time, about 7,000 Comex contracts, but it was only able to move the price down about $5, then this morning, the market was hit by another heavy round of selling this time pushing the market through sell stops that accelerated the decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below March's low crossing at 1280.80 are needed to renew the decline off February's high. If April renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 1349.80 is a potential upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1324.50. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1349.80.First support is March's low crossing at 1280.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at 1273.20.
May silver closed sharply lower on Thursday led by today's sharp decline in gold. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 14.935 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.613 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.613. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 16.060. First support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 14.935. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 14.644.
May copper closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of last-Friday's decline.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 290.30 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 284.39 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into early-April. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 284.39. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 275.95.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May Corn closed up a 1/4-cent at 3.74.
May corn closed fractionally higher on Thursday as traders square positions ahead of Friday's quarterly grain stocks and planting intentions report. Today's mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.71 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.79 would open the door for additional short covering gains. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.79. Second resistance is the February 25th reaction high crossing at 3.87 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.67 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at 3.61.
May wheat closed down 5 3/4-cents at 4.63 3/4.
May wheat closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.56 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.88 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.78. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.88 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.56. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.27.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down 5 3/4-cents at 4.38 3/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4 is the next downside target. If May resumes the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.73 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.54. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.73. First support is March's low crossing at 4.18 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed down 7 3/4-cents at 5.60.
May Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.59 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If May resumes the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 5.81 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 5.81 1/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.93 3/4. First support is March's low crossing at 5.44. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4.
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May soybeans closed up 1 3/4-cents at 8.89 1/4.
May soybeans closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the November 26th low crossing at 8.84 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.02 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.16 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.24 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 8.86 1/2. Second support is the November 26th low crossing at 8.84 3/4.
May soybean meal closed up $2.10 at 306.50.
May soybean meal posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If May extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at 300.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 311.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 316.50. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 321.30. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 303.60. Second support is March's low crossing at 300.30.
May soybean oil closed down 17-pt. at 28.65.
May soybean oil closed lower on Thursday but remains above the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.60. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.01. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.43. First support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.60. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.17.
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June hogs closed down $3.00 at $91.80.
June hogs closed limit down on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 98.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 91.97 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 97.82. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 98.17. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 91.97. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.04.
April cattle closed up $0.28 at 126.53.
April cattle closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Wednesday's close below March's low crossing at 126.53 confirms that a double top has been posted. If April extends the aforementioned decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019 rally crossing at 125.45 is the next downside target. Closes above 20-day moving average crossing at 128.35 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 130.45. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 125.45. Second support the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 122.80.
April Feeder cattle closed up $0.05 at $145.95.
April Feeder cattle closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 145.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 150.80. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 155.70. First support is March's low crossing at 143.50. Second support is January's low crossing at 142.62.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher due to short covering on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.65 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 9.12 is the next downside target.
May cocoa closed higher on Thursday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.47 confirming that a low has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 23.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.70 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.
May sugar closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. May renews the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 11.82 is the next downside target. If May resumes the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 13.42 is the next upside target.
May cotton closed lower on Thursday due to position squaring ahead of tomorrow's grain stocks and planted acreage report. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 79.88 is the next upside target.