KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, April 12, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 909.3K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1491.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 309.2K)
8:30 AM ET. March Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +0.2%; previous +0.4%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.5%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -0.5%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 230K; previous 242K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +24K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1808000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -64K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1354B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -29B)
12:00 PM ET. March Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
1:30 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
N/A IMF Fiscal Monitor analytical chapter presentation
Friday, April 13, 2018
10:00 AM ET. April University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 100.0; previous 102.0)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 88.6)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 122.8)
10:00 AM ET. February Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
Monday, April 16, 2018
8:30 AM ET. March Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
8:30 AM ET. G24 Committee of the Whole
8:30 AM ET. April Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 22.5)
Employment Idx (previous 9.4)
New Orders Idx (previous 16.8)
Prices Received (previous 22.4)
10:00 AM ET. February Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +0.6%)
10:00 AM ET. April NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 70)
4:00 PM ET. February Treasury International Capital Data
N/A Emancipation Day in Washington, DC
N/A Patriot's Day in Massachusetts and Maine
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The June NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6688.32 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 6192.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 6654.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6688.32. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 6306.75. Second support is February's low crossing at 6192.50.
The June S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2660.82 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2533.51 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2660.82. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2699.27. First support is April's low crossing at 2554.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2533.51.
The Dow closed lower on Wednesday as investors weighed a rally in energy shares against uncertainty in the White House and rising tensions in the Middle East. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,722.94 is the next upside target. If the Dow resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 23,101.28 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,722.94. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 25,449.15. First support is April's low crossing at 23,344.52. Second support is weekly support crossing at 23,101.28.
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June T-bonds closed up 12/32's at 146-10.
June T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-08 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-14. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 148-28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-08. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 142-30.
June T-notes closed up 45 pts at 120-290.
June T-notes closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 121.257 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.211 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 121.110. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 121.257. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.211. Second resistance is the reaction low crossing at 119.220.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
May crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off last June's low. Oil futures posted its highest finish since late 2014 as rising tensions in the Middle East continued to feed concerns over potential supply disruptions in the region. Unconfirmed reports that Saudi Arabia has intercepted a missile over Riyadh prompted a steeper rise in prices shortly after a U.S. government report revealed a bigger-than-expected weekly rise in domestic crude supplies. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 67.45. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.46.First support is last Friday's low crossing at 61.81. Second support is March's low crossing at 59.91.
May heating oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off February's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 216.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.04 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 212.27. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 216.58. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 201.03. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.04.
May unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, January's high crossing at 210.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 197.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 208.89. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 210.12. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 197.11. Second support is April's low crossing at 193.63.
May Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May renews the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 2.600 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.723 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 2.831 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.764. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.831. First support is March's low crossing at 2.610. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.600. Third support is December's low crossing at 2.504.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The June Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last Friday's high.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline March's low crossing at 88.53 is the next downside target. From a broader perspective, June needs to close above 90.49 or below 78.83 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trading range. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.35. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13. First support is March's low crossing at 88.53. Second support is February's low crossing at 87.83.
The June Euro closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last Friday's low, The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.27 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.97 is the next downside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 125.54. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 126.58. First support is the March 1st low crossing at 122.54. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.97.
The June British Pound closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 1.4352 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.4055 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is March's high crossing at 1.4294. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4404. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.4007. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.3779.
The June Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0556 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0344 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0556. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0686. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1.0422. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0344.
The June Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off March's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 80.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.81 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.83. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 80.45. First support is Monday's low crossing at 78.10. Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 77.35. Third support is March's low crossing at 76.33.
The June Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9327 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9459 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9459. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 0.9615. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9327. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9238.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
June gold closed higher on Wednesday and at their highest level since late January supported by geopolitical tensions focused on Syria and elsewhere that put the haven metal in demand.In electronic trading shortly after minutes from the Federal reserve's March meeting, however, gold futures fell from the settlement to $1,354.40. The minutes reinforced the view that more interest-rate increases are likely. Higher interest rates can boost the dollar and dull demand for dollar-denominated commodities. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 1375.50 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 1322.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1369.40. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1375.50. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1311.50. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30.
May silver closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last Thursday's low. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.569 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the rally off last Thursday's low, the reaction high crossing at 17.025 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 17.025. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 17.460. First support is March's low crossing at 16.100. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.705.
May copper closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 319.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 305.70 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is March's high crossing at 319.20. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 329.05. First support is the reaction low crossing at 297.00. Second support is March's low crossing at 293.75.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May Corn closed down 2 1/2-cents at 3.86 3/4.
May corn closed lower on Wednesday following Tuesday's WASDE report, which confirmed that large corn stocks continue to weigh on prices. Weaker demand kept corn basis bids flat to slightly down on Wednesday. Grain markets have yet to factor in weather premiums but don’t count that out if wetter-than-normal conditions persist through much of the Corn Belt through the rest of April as they are expected to do, which could in turn create some planting delays and amplify market jitters. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.79 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.92 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 3.69 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 3.64.
May wheat closed down 7 1/2-cents at 4.84 1/2.
May wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. Today's decline was triggered by spring rains falling across portions of the Plains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.63 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.98. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 5.18 1/2. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 4.72 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.41 1/2. Third support is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.36.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down 5-cents at 5.16 3/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 5.33 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.33 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 5.48 1/2. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 5.06 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.88.
May Minneapolis wheat closed up 3 1/2-cents at 6.29.
May Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday on potential planting concerns. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, March's high crossing at 6.36 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 6.34. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 6.36. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 6.08 1/4. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.98.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans closed down 2 1/4-cents at 10.47 3/4.
May soybeans closed lower on Wednesday. Private exporters reported two large soybean sales to USDA Wednesday. The first was for 4.4 million bushels for delivery to Argentina, and the second was for 5.2 million bushels for delivery to Mexico. Both sales are for the 2018/19 marketing year, which begins September 1. This marked the fourth consecutive business day exporters reported large soybean sales to USDA. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.32 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 10.64. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.32 1/2. Second support is April's low crossing at 9.83 1/2.
May soybean meal closed down $3.90 at 380.00.
May soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 371.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 404.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 389.70. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 404.00. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 359.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 348.30.
May soybean oil closed down 32 pts. At 31.53.
May soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off January's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 30.67 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 32.96. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 32.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September 2017/ March 2018 decline crossing at 33.33. First support is Monday's low crossing at 31.29. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 30.67.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed up $0.73 at $75.78.
June hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last Wednesdays' low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.56 is the next upside target. If June resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 69.77 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.92. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.56. First support is April's low crossing at 70.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 69.77.
June cattle closed down $0.53 at 101.57.
June cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 105.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 105.68. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.88. First support is the 87% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 99.63. Second support is the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40.
May Feeder cattle closed up $0.28 at $135.55.
May Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 126.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.96. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 144.00. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 130.80. Second support is weekly support crossing at 126.09.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.07 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.55 is the next downside target.
May cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 27.55 is the next upside target. If May extends the decline off April's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.33 is the next downside target.
May sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extended this year's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 11.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.48 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last Wednesday's low, March's high crossing at 86.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 81.01 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.