Happy April 29th! Do something to make somebody feel GREAT today. Don't just think about it........do it. Then think about it.............and how you just made somebody's world a tiny bit greener.
Our local chess tournament last month got some great coverage. I'm extraordinarily proud of the kids and also the adults that helped run this event:
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere. Doesn't look quite as wet for this upcoming week as it did previously, especially around the edges of the Cornbelt(but still pretty wet, especially in the center) but week 2 actually looks a bit wetter over night.
There was good planting in the central belt last week but planters will not be as active this week and next and the extended is not promising this morning.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.............including some snow.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Wind map Press down on this on the left with your cursor!
Current Jet Stream
| Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs for days 3-7:
Temperatures bounce around then end on a warm note. Hot in the Southeast!
Average Temperature anomalies for days 3-7:
Above to Well above average south/southeast, Below average northern tier.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Weather maps for days 3-7 below
Front sweeps southeast on Thursday.........make that.........drifts southeast with rains continuing
just behind it and only very slight cooling and some drying WELL behind it. Then it warms up again this weekend.
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/daily
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Heaviest rain in a band in the Central Belt but not as wet in some places compared to yesterdays week 1 forecast.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Excessive Rainfall Forecasts.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 12Z 04/22/19 - 12Z 04/23/19 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
| Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 04/23/19 - 12Z 04/24/19 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Severe Storm risk
Current Day 1 Outlook | Forecaster: Thompson/Squitieri Issued: 20/1624Z Valid: 20/1630Z - 21/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms |
Current Day 2 Outlook | Forecaster: Broyles Issued: 20/0546Z Valid: 21/1200Z - 22/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk |
Current Day 3 Outlook | Forecaster: Broyles Issued: 20/0711Z Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
Current Dew Points
Deep moisture is coming north.
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
| Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
IT DRIED OUT IN THE CENTRAL BELT BUT IT WILL GET VERY WET THERE THIS WEEK!
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data. Still too wet over a large area even with recently drying.........but conditions improved greatly and planting made good progress in the Central Cornbelt last week.
It's getting wetter again in many places, heaviest rain in the central belt so planting stays stalled out in some places not planted yet.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Currently, there is 0% of the Cornbelt/Midwest with drought. There is no place even slightly dry there.
The market will be keying on precip forecasts for planting concerns for the next month.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:
Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past. This is an end of week 2 forecast!
Last Monday: The big change on the mean today is the upper level heights(ridging) building from the south into the Midwest compared to yesterday. At the very least, this would mean warm temperatures. This could also deflect/effect the storm track/jet stream.
Tuesday: Warm solutions on majority, with upper level high in the Southeast on numerous solutions and an active southern stream on some solutions that still carry the risk of wet weather in the Plains.
Wednesday: Clearly warm again. How long and how strong for the upper level ridge when its in the center of the country? It shuts down the southern stream/shunts it much farther westward in that position. If it shifts east, the potential to turn wet again increases.
Thursday: Solidly warm and leaning dry. Just the very warm temps by themselves, along with an increasingly strong sun will help dry things out. Still suspicious that the southern stream could become more active and be aimed towards the middle of the country because of the trough in the West.
Friday: Still very warm with increasing odds for an extended dry period. Today's upper level ridge on the mean is farther west, far enough west to completely shut down any southern stream. The mean upper level trough is also 500 miles farther west, now just off the West Coast.
Saturday: Glad that I waited to get this just updated 12z run. It's incredibly different from previous runs for an ensemble. HOLY COW! The just updated 12z GFS operational model shows something similar but the GFS ensembles do not..........which is the southern stream coming to life with gusto! The majority of solutions have deep upper level troughs to cut off lows somewhere between just off the West Coast to the Plains with tremendous energy emanating from the tropical Pacific El Nino. With an upper level ridge in the Southeast, there will be strong southerly flow and deep Gulf of Mexico moisture available............leading to the potential for excessive rain events in the Plains to points eastward. This is a huge change and during week 2 and also just on the Canadian ensemble vs the GFS ensemble showing these features over 500 miles farther west, closer to yesterday and not nearly as amplied and is actually dry for the same period because of it...... so it may be overdone.............which is usually what we assume when an extreme change comes so quickly.......or this model might be on to something.
Sunday: Big question mark for this late week 2 period about several features..........for this model(I should note that the other models are not nearly as wet and don't have this potent upper level trough in the West) The main one is going to be where the potentially potent, active and wet southern stream is aimed at. We're not as bullish with the pattern today as 24 hours ago (which was very bullish) for this model but the position of the features in the mean is still potentially very wet to excessively wet in early May for an impossible to pinpoint region in the middle of the country. Where that will be depends of the location of any upper level ridging downstream in South or Southeast. The zone of any extreme rains will be around the periphery of any such upper level ridging...........that assists in deep Gulf moisture flowing north bound. The farther west the upper level ridging is, the more of the South/Midwest will be underneath its shield of protection from the energy coming in from the Pacific.
Monday: Much different picture with the Upper level trough.........on the mean farther west and MUCH less southern stream, especially for individual solutions. Instead of potentially turning much wetter, this solution leans to the dry side. It's 2 weeks out, so not surprising for changes.
Tuesday: Around half the members look impressive with a southern stream trough in the Southwest with the energy aimed northeast. Several have almost the opposite solution. So it would get very wet............or be dry.............leaning wet.
Wednesday: Stronger northern stream, cooler temperatures, especially northern half. Potential for potent southern stream but where will it be aimed? Looks like a bit farther south today, being diverted by northern stream energy to the north.
Thursday: Battle between southern stream and northern stream. Great uncertainty late in week 2, after a very wet period preceding it.
Friday: Same northern stream and southern stream battle with a very wet period until we get well into week 2, then great uncertainty.
Saturday: The mean/average map below looks zonal because the average of some opposite extremes cause it to be that way. Less southern stream on the individual solutions today though and less threat for heavy rains now in week 2 and just afterwards.
Saturday: 12z run at the top here, looks a bit wetter than the 0z run below.
Sunday: Lots of uncertainty but this mornings mean shows the upper level ridge in the Southeast more prominent for the 2nd solution in a row. IF there is an upper level ridge in that position, the chances of very wet weather in the mid section of the country go way up. That feature will act in tandem with an upper trough upsteam in the Southwest to steer a southern stream aimed at locations between them, along with southerly winds on the backside of the high transporting juicy Gulf air northward.
Monday: Similar to yesterday for the mean/average..............wetter than average but some extreme differences in individual solutions. That wide spread causes uncertainty.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on May 14, 2019 00 UTC
0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:
Analysis, starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:
Last Saturday: Watching to see if more solutions on this model amplify the southern stream similar to the Canadian ensembles. Some show the potential for this.
Sunday: This model does not look that wet at all. In fact, much of the belt is pretty dry and very warm. Most solutions don't have much southern stream.
Monday: Warm and dry under the upper level ridge in the South to points outward still under its protection. Some wetness around the periphery, just out side of that protection.....Upper Midwest/Plains?
Tuesday: Cut off upper level low to deep trough in Southeast Canada will help some cold fronts to push south of the border. Watching the Southwest US for stronger signal on southern stream.
Wednesday: Battle between northern stream with cool air in the northern US and southern stream with moisture and the threat of excessive rains from the south.
Thursday: Southern stream looks stronger/wetter.
Friday: For sure a very wet period leading up to late week 2, which is the period for these maps. Will it continue?
Saturday: This model still looks pretty wet late in week 2 on many of the solutions.
Sunday: Majority look wet. Biggest disparity, especially in the East.
Monday: Looks pretty wet with an upper level ridge in the Southeast and trough in the West with some southern stream..........on many solutions.
Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above)
Last Monday: Pretty decent positive anomaly across the northern half of the US into Southeastern Canada..........so warm temps. Not sure on rains but its NOT an excessive rain set up in the Midwest.
Tuesday: Even bigger positive anomaly NorthCentral US. High confidence for warmth. This would shutdown the moisture to some places................possibly forcing the southern stream to take a track that keeps it from being aimed at the Midwest.
Wednesday: Still big positive anomaly Upper Midwest to Hudson Bay. WARM again! Still dry for alot of the Midwest in this position but could turn wet if it starts shifting eastward.
Thursday: Big positive anomaly centered from the Great Lakes to points southwestward assures warm temps. Much of the area will benefit with dry weather underneath it.
Friday: Large positive anomaly across the entire country, except the extreme Southwest on the top map.
Saturday: Still a modest positive anomaly across much of the country and warm temperatures but confidence has dropped to very low for late week 2 as a pattern change to much wetter is possible.........but if the main features set up farther west, it will instead be dry.
Sunday: Still the same modest positive upper level/height anomaly across much of the country. This argues for warm temperatures.............though a new negative anomaly in Southeast Canada brings a potential for cold fronts to penetrate in the Upper Midwest to Northeast. Upper level trough off the Southwest Coast needs to be watched for southern stream potential feeding east.
Monday: Modest positive anomaly for upper level heights most places again but the negative anomaly in Southeast Canada is enough to potentially drive down some cooler air on its backside into the Upper Midwest and Northeast.
Tuesday: Negative anomaly in Southeast Canada will push some cool air into the Upper Midwest/Northeast from the northern stream. This could suppress the southern stream farther south...........or, if that is strong enough, the southern stream may send moisture into the cooler air from the northern stream. Upper level ridging in the South will cause it to be warm there.
Wednesday. Negative anomaly in Southeast Canada will be steering northern stream chilly air south of the border. Positive anomaly center shifted to Southwest Canada helps establish a bit of a couplet, as well as positive anomalies farther north. How much will this suppress the potent/wet southern stream coming from the Southwest upper level trough and potential El Nino energy from the tropical Pacific?
Thursday: Similar to yesterday. Cool air from the northern stream in Northeast and Midwest from the negative anomaly in Southeast Canada but a potent southern stream that doesn't show up well in these anomalies will aim energy/moisture towards the Plains/Midwest.
Friday: Positive anomaly in N/C Canada and negative anomaly in Southeast Canada is a cold couplet dynamic for much of the Midwest and East. How much southern stream moisture pushes into that is not clear late in week 2. The northern stream could suppress the deeper moisture pretty far southwest.
Saturday: Anomalies are weaker today. Still the negative one Southeast Canada, so chilly in the Upper Midwest/Northeast.
Sunday: Strong positive anomaly in the East today that was not there yesterday suggests very wet Plains/Midwest with potent southern stream aimed in that direction. There were a couple of extreme individual solutions that contributed to the positive anomaly though, so the majority don't concur.
Monday: Positive anomaly in the East not as strong but the negative anomoly in the Southwest is significant for modulating the southern stream which should be aimed toward the Plains/Midwest.
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast 
New precipitation product from this site:
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_nh_alltimes.html
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Monday: NAO dips negative and is a factor in potential cooling in the Upper Midwest/Northeast.
Tuesday: Negative NAO will steer some cooler air into the Northern Tier. Also a negative PNA, so the cool air will not go to far south.
Wed: Negative NAO will brings cooler northern stream energy/air masses into the Northern tier. How far south can it divert the potent southern stream? The cool air from the north, will probably be overlapped by the moisture coming up from the south in the battle zone between the northern stream and southern stream.
Thursday: Negative NAO and cool along the northern tier. Also a bit of a negative AO and positive PNA can potentially assist in that cooling......during week 2 but tremendous uncertainty late in that period.
Friday: Negative AO and especially negative NAO strongly favor chilly air pushing south out of Canada. PNA increases late in the period that favors that, with potential to shut down the moisture.
Saturday: AO recovers back to near 0. The pretty negative NAO, bounces back to 0 at the end of 2 weeks. PNA increases a great deal into positive territory at the end of 2 weeks.
Sunday: AO around 0, NAO rebounds from negative to near 0 at the end of week 2 and PNA turns positive.
Monday: AO now drops below 0. NAO recovers from negative territory to near 0, same with PNA.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/top
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Still very wet with cool north and warm southeast but warmth in the Southeast should erode with the upper level ridge weakening as week 2 progresses...........and this could set the stage for rains to lighten up later in week 2.
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
 | |
Could get real interesting here!
This is the last operational GFS, a bit wetter. The outside pink is 6" up to S. Iowa and C. Illinois even N. Indiana.
The bright pinks are 10" in the next 2 weeks. This is bullish but shift it a bit northward and it becomes ultra bullish.
There is no sign that the very wet week 2 pattern will end......and temperatures are uncertain.
The 2nd map is the risk of heavy precipitation. The NWS rarely goes HIGH for an event more than a week from now. The moderate is all the way into IA and IL.
Forecast Hour: 384
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif
