Previous weekly discussions on natural gas here(dang, this is getting to be long list)

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30007/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/29419/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/28858/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/28351/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27780/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27305/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/26861/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/26506/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/26105/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/25678/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/25189/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/24662/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/24111/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/23680/

Look for the big injections to continue this Spring............depending on the weather.  We've quickly gone from a deficit vs 2018 to a surplus(for the time in a long while). Next up, a surplus vs the 5 year average which will not happen until later this year, possibly Summer if its cool this year, to accomplish, depending on the weather.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 1,653 Bcf as of Friday, May 10, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 106 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 130 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 286 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,939 Bcf. At 1,653 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Last week:

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

                    Latest Release May 16, 2019 Actual106B  Forecast 104B   Previous 85B                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending May 10, 2019   |  Released: May 16, 2019 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: May 23, 2019 

           +106 bcf                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

These were the 7 day temperatures that were used for last Thursdays EIA weekly storage report.

Very warm in the East. Very chilly in the Plains, especially N.Plains(where not many people live). However, the injection number was still huge at 100+ bcf.

This is the 7 day period for this next report.   Chilly in the Northeast with some unseasonably late HDD's. Very warm Northwest/N.Rockies. 

This seasonal price chart below is for 2 decades, ending back in 2009. Not sure on what they use exactly to make their calculations but I've been following seasonal patterns since the early 90's(I paid thousands of dollars in the 90's to get seasonal charts for every commodity updated every 2 years) and this graph does a nice job at capturing the seasonality of natural gas.

This shows that natural gas has a strong historical tendency to go up after mid February to mid June.

The lows in Feb., WERE perfectly timed with a typical, end of Winter low, which is followed by increasing prices over 80% of the time into early Spring. 

However, this year has been a noted exception/aberration.  Fundamentals are very bearish........note the price  stayed fairly low even though storage was much less than the 5 year average.....because the market felt very comfortable...... and has been projecting additional storage gains from supplies gushing in......and the market was right.

Natural Gas prices have shown some life to the upside the last 2 weeks because of an intense heat ridge in the Southeast causing a great deal of early season cooling demand.

These natural gas price charts showed a typical seasonal, double  bottom in February............which we violated with gusto last month as we spiked to  new lows from huge storage injections ahead.. 

Record late season withdrawals last April......2018 have only made the big injections that much more bearish on the year to year comparisions. So we have experienced something that's extraordinarily rare in the month of April-new lows(maybe has happened only once during the last 2 decades).

We also erased the long lived storage deficit vs the previous year and turned it into a surplus(but still well below the 5 year average)

As we head into the 4th week of May , you can see the nice bounce on the charts below from expectations of the intense heat in the Southeast, causing some record cooling demand for May in that region.  The market will be reacting to changes in the cooling degree day forecasts this week, thru the rest of the Summer.

NG 7 days

Natural gas 3 months below

Natural Gas Intelligence Monday Morning:

Natural Gas Futures Rally Early on Record Southeast Heat, Supply Cuts

Natural Gas Intelligence after the close Monday:

More Weather-Driven Demand, Lower Production Lifts Natural Gas Futures

     5:16 PM    

Further demand gains in the weather outlook and reports of supply disruptions helped inspire a natural gas futures rally to open the work week Monday. In the spot market, hotter temperatures supported Southeast gains, while price moves were mixed in the West; the NGI Spot Gas National Avg. added 6.0 cents to $2.125/MMBtu.

metmike: Note how low that spot prices have been..............way under the futures. If we have a cool Summer, one would think that we will see new contract lows for natural gas futures. 

Natural Gas Intelligence Tuesday Morning:

Heat Still Seen Easing by Early June; Natural Gas Futures Called Lower

     8:51 AM    

With the latest forecasts still showing a bearish pattern for the start of June, natural gas futures were trading several cents lower early Tuesday. The June Nymex futures contract was down 3.2 cents to $2.641/MMBtu shortly after 8:30 a.m. ET, reversing off of the prior session’s 4.2-cent rally.

Natural Gas Intelligence closing comments Tuesday...look  how low cash prices are!

Production Back Online, Sending Natural Gas Futures Lower

     5:26 PM    

After a drop in production helped rally prices to start the work week, natural gas futures reversed sharply Tuesday amid reports of the interrupted supply coming back online. In the spot market, potential record-setting heat expected in the Southeast by the weekend proved insufficient as a catalyst for higher day-ahead prices; the NGI Spot Gas National Avg.skidded 3.5 cents to $2.090/MMBtu.

NGI Wed. morning:

Early June Pattern Looking ‘Rather Bearish’ as Natural Gas Futures Slide

NGI Wednesday after the close:

Natural Gas Futures Extend Slump on Large Storage Build, Mild June Forecast

     5:20 PM    

A less than impressive forecast for early June and expectations for another triple-digit storage injection created an opening for bears to extend a recent sell-off in the natural gas futures market Wednesday. In the spot market, sweltering conditions in the Southeast couldn’t stave off widespread discounts; the NGI Spot Gas National Avg. fell 1.0 cent to $2.080/MMBtu

Just after the open: June Natural Gas Sees Early Gains as Hefty EIA Build Inbound

9:30 am: EIA  +100 bcf  slightly bullish                                                                                              

NGI:                  

Another Three-Digit EIA Injection; NatGas Balances in Need of ‘Material Improvement’

    11:29 AM    

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a 100 Bcf weekly injection into U.S. natural gas stocks, a figure on the low side...

Closing comments from Natural Gas Intelligence:

Natural Gas Futures See Modest Bounce as Latest Injection Lighter Than Estimates

     5:26 PM    

A weekly inventory build on the low side of estimates and a warmer-leaning early June outlook supported a small bounce in natural gas futures prices Thursday

 I think that it was up some early due to slightly warmer model consensus. Then it fell back. Then once the slightly bullish EIA was released, that was enough in combo with the slightly warmer average of the models to eventually produce new session highs.

That makes  good sense Larry.

The 06z GFS ensembles were quite a bit warmer.  The market starting going up pretty steady after 6am.

Natural Gas Intelligence Friday Morning: Weather Outlook Mostly Unchanged; Natural Gas Futures Down Early

Natural Gas Intelligence after the close Friday:

Record Lows for Midcon Cash as Natural Gas Futures Steady

The natural gas futures market turned in a quiet day of trading Friday as the latest readings on fundamentals didn’t offer much to excite traders and peel them away from their holiday plans. In the spot market, pipeline maintenance drove record lows in the Midcontinent and sent stopped-up West Texas deep into the red; the NGI Spot Gas National Avg. dropped 27.0 cents to $1.805/MMBtu