Welcome June 3rd!!! Do something to make somebody feel loved today! Then, after observing the positive results, make a good habit out of it!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere.
Blocking Heat ridge in the Southeast is dead, so weather systems are moving again. No major heat in the forecast, in fact on the cool side in the extended........bearish for natural gas.
A key part of the forecast for grains is the southern stream system this week and how far north it will go. How far north it goes will mean EVERYTHING for planting progress ahead in the waterlogged areas. Models the last 2 days have shifted around. The heaviest rains will very likely be south of the Cornbelt but how far north will significant rains get?? This system will move very slowly with a cut off circulation in the upper levels at times, so the location is of paramount importance.
Of less significance but important, rains marching eastward, by late in the week will erode the western portion of the drought that has been expanding in the Southeast US.
The last few runs of the guidance have been taking the rains a bit farther southwest which would be better for more NorthEastern Cornbelt planting. The 12z run continues that trend.
Week 2 weather is benign.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Wind map Press down on this on the left with your cursor!
Current Jet Stream
| Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Cool in the Northeast/Great Lakes, very warm N.Plains.
Temperature colors on the maps below still need to be adjusted down to cooler shades.
Highs for days 3-7:
Major pattern change from the May pattern!!! Temperatures are closer to average.
N.Plains warms up early.
Temperature pattern change from May..
Most of the country close to average.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Weather maps for days 3-7 below
The mid/late week system (early week in the Plains) is a moisture packed southern stream system that will feature a cut off upper level low at times, which WILL cause it to move extremely slow(not from blocking, which is what caused all the problems in May from the same weather in the same places). This means heavy rains in areas that it affects. Heaviest should be just south of the Cornbelt but plenty for the southern and eastern Cornbelt. This system will take numerous days to move thru. The northern extent of the rains will be huge in determining how much planting can be done.
After that system passes by very early next week, then a strong progressive cold front sweeps thru.
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/daily
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
The system developing this week means everything. It's a very wet, slow moving southern stream system. HOW FAR NORTH IT GOES MATTERS! This will bring some unwanted rains to waterlogged areas, especially in the Southern Cornbelt and probably into the Central Cornbelt.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
New Excessive Rainfall threat develops this week as expected with the slow moving southern stream low. Because soils are saturated, it won't take a great deal of rain to cause some runoff issues. Amounts will not be as extreme as they were in May.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 12Z 04/22/19 - 12Z 04/23/19 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
| Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 04/23/19 - 12Z 04/24/19 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Severe Storm risk-the outbreaks are over!!! The system this week will not have the powerful jet stream that was a constant feature in the May outbreaks. However, there will still be a(mainly) slight risk on most days this week in some areas.
Current Day 1 Outlook | Forecaster: Thompson/Squitieri Issued: 20/1624Z Valid: 20/1630Z - 21/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms |
Current Day 2 Outlook | Forecaster: Broyles Issued: 20/0546Z Valid: 21/1200Z - 22/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk |
Current Day 3 Outlook | Forecaster: Broyles Issued: 20/0711Z Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
Current Dew Points
Very dry Great Lakes/Northeast to the Ohio Valley right now. Higher moisture is coming back north from the Western Gulf of Mexico into the Plains!
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
| (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
The Cornbelt has had way too much rain......no kidding. There will be net drying the next 5 days in most places but others still see scat. shwrs, then a bigger system in the middle of next week.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
Some places have dried out enough to plant but its still too wet in other places. Heat in the forecast, especially Eastern Cornbelt will help drying but more big rains are on the way everywhere, heaviest for the west and central belt.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Surprise, surprise, surprise!! Currently, there is 0% of the Cornbelt/Midwest with drought. There is no place even slightly dry there. It has been dry(and very warm/hot) in the Southeast though which has some drought. The Southeast drought has really increased since last week!!!! It will continue to get worse........but the northwest fringe of the drought will erode late this week/next weekend.
The map below is updated on Thursdays.
The market will be keying on precip forecasts for planting concerns for the next couple of weeks.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:
Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past. This is an end of week 2 forecast!
Last Friday: Another day with good/strong agreement on the trough around the West Coast. Strong stream from the Pacific will be coming in under this. Where it's aimed downstream will depend on any upper level ridging or no ridging. The long lived Southeast heat ridge still looks to die in week 2(possibly shifting westward to the W.Gulf to N.Mex/S.TX).
Saturday: Still a trough along the West Coast. Strong flow from the Pacific dipping into the trough and being aimed across the US. Will it be a strong, active jet stream coming going west to east in zonal fashion? Or will the flow pattern buckle at some point and become amplified and extreme beyond 2 weeks?
Sunday: Good agreement on very deep trough/low along to just off the West Coast. What will happen downstream? Strong, active zonal flow or amplification of high pressure and heat?
Monday: Very strong agreement on the extremely deep trough/low along the West Coast. Today, this leads to strong ridge building/amplification downstream (as the jet stream buckles) with a heat ridge, anywhere from the Plains to points farther east....maybe in the center of the country. This would SHUT DOWN the rains and turn up the heat for the Cornbelt. If the large scale features are positioned differently,...trough farther east in the Rockies/Plains, it could be the complete opposite.
Tuesday: Similar to yesterday. Trough West, ridge building in the center of the country.
Wednesday: The mean is characterized by a more zonal flow look today but that's just averaging out some extremes. Still the Upper Level low along the West Coast, to the Gulf of Alaska and potential ridge amplification downstream, favored spot is Southcentral US to the W.Gulf states. This a slight shift in the main features and this could go from mostly dry to wet again.
Thursday: Trough to cut off low along the West Coast is deeper today and very impressive. What will happen downstream? Ridge building or more ammo to start up another stormy weather pattern? Not as dry looking as the previous few days.
Friday: Still the deep trough along or off the West Coast to possibly the Gulf of Alaska(not as deep today) and the downstream ridging, building into the SouthCentral US(Plains). Weak trough along the East Coast.
Saturday: Like yesterday. Upper level trough just off the West Coast and downstream ridge, possibly a significant heat ridge on some solutions. Rains could shut down under any upper level high downstream and could increase around the periphery from a strong Pacific jet stream implied from the flow coming under the deep West Coast area trough. Not a clear indication of where heaviest rains might or where it will be dry but temperatures look to be warmer than average over almost all of the US.
Sunday: The ensemble mean is more zonal today. There are variations/solutions with opposite extremes that help to offset each other but the mean is not amplified.
Monday: A little more troughing in the Midwest to Northeast on this model, so cooler there today. Still zonal flow for the mean and a weak(er) trough along the West Coast. A positive anomaly in NW Canada.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jun 18, 2019 00 UTC
0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:
Analysis, starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:
Last Thursday: Much different than the Canadian model above and tremendous differences/spread for individual members, so great uncertainty. Best agreement is for the upper level ridge in the Southeast to be replaced by weak troughing.
Friday: Pattern change from what we have now with heat ridge in the Southeast broken down but too much spread on how what it will be to take a serious gander.........other than to think that it will be more progressive than the recent pattern.
Saturday: Several members want to greatly deepen an upper level low in SW Canada and possibly buckle the jet stream with an upper level ridge pumped up downstream, which could be any where from the Midwest to points east and south. Just as many have something different.
Sunday: Uncertainty but the recent pattern of a heat ridge in the Southeast and excessive rains around the periphery is not one of the solutions.
Monday: Similar pattern to the Canadian model but large scale features are shifted west/northwest. The deep upper level low is from SW Canada to the Gulf of Alaska and downstream upper level high/ridge is from the Rockies to Plains. This also allows for some troughing, even farther downstream along the East Coast and cooler temps there.
Tuesday: Deep trough to cutoff low anywhere from the West Coast to the Gulf of Alaska with amplifying upper level ridge down stream(Plains?) late in week 2.
Wednesday: Same as yesterday but with more members featuring a trough in the East/Northeast. No question, a dry pattern with the Gulf cut off and no ridging in the Southeast. Warmest temps in the Plains to West.
Thursday: All sorts of solutions from a heat ridge to a cut off upper level low in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.
Friday: Still a great deal of variation with solutions. Best agreement might be upper level ridge in the Plains and upper level low somewhere in the vicinity of the PAC Northwest.
Saturday: Watching the West Coast trough/low and strong Pacific jet stream associated with that to tell us whats coming for mid June and beyond. Temperatures look quite warm over much of the country with no northern stream interactions.
Sunday: Trough along the West Coast less significant as well as down stream ridging less. Trough in the Northeast significant on half the solutions.
Monday: Not very decisive.
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average). The daily analysis starts with the oldest and ends with the latest.
Last Tuesday: A weak NEGATIVE anomaly in the far Southeast,tells us the long lived heat ridge will be going bye bye!!!! Now, we have an extensive positive anomaly along the Canadian border in the new pattern...........which will be drier with the heat ridge not steering Gulf air north and blocking progression. Don't see the negative anomaly along the West Coast here but its there on the Canadian model.
Wednesday: Weak NEGATIVE anomaly in the East is even more confirmation that the long lived heat ridge will be dead. Very cool in the East. Positive anomaly in the Plains to West. This is a major pattern change.
Thursday: Very weak negative anomaly very far Southeast/Florida. Positive anomaly Northeast Canada.
Friday: Exactly like Thursday but much uncertainty though it looks progressive.
Saturday: The greatest positive anomalies are at the higher latitudes but most of the US looks to have slightly above 500 mb height anomalies, which means warm temperatures.
Sunday: Same as Saturday
Monday: NOT the same as the last 2 days. Growing Positive anomaly in the N.Rockies is noteworthy as it represents the current, favored locations for a building upper level ridge. Along with a modest negative anomaly in the Gulf of Mexico, this is the recipe for a DRY pattern, with the GOM shut down. There would be some heat close the ridge and on this model the heat is most likely farther west, than on the Canadian model solution above. This is almost the complete opposite of the recent pattern that has dominated in May.
Tuesday: Significant positive anomaly N.Plains!
Wednesday: Big positive anomaly in the N.Plains again and now, a modest negative anomaly in the Northeast, along with a slight negative anomaly off the West Coast. This is suggestive of a trough/ridge/trough couplet. Warm under the ridge and likely dry. Amplification could take on an Omega Block signature but that speculating. There still could be some moisture and energy from the West Coast trough which gets aimed towards the Plains.
Thursday: Positive anomaly in the N.Plains has weakened. Negative anomaly along the West Coast. Great uncertainty but not as dry overall vs the last few days.
Friday: Weak positive anomaly in the center of the country.........stronger at higher latitudes(Canada). Weak negative anomaly along the West Coast, stronger one in Southeast Canada which mean cool in the Northeast.
Saturday: The decent negative anomaly in Southeast Canada has filled in..........so that takes out the northern stream component and makes this high confidence for warmer than average. Negative anomaly along the West Coast is now more significant. This will help to modulate the jet streams location and determine where down stream ridging might be, along with the new zone for rains setting up around the periphery of the potential ridge.
Sunday: A bit of a negative anomaly againt in Southeast Canada might bring cooler air to the Northeast and middle of the country. The rest of the US has had previous anomalies filled in.
Monday: Slight negative anomalies in Southeast Canada, if they grow would be a source of cool air. Negative anomaly along the southern West Coast could steer wet weather and a jet stream towards the Plains.
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast 
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Last Sunday: A0 up to 0, NAO and PNA a bit negative.
Monday: All slightly negative. Could have a pattern change later in week(not because of these indices though)
Tuesday: AO, NAO, PNA all a tad negative. Nothing to see here.
Wednesday: A tad negative. The PNA has a wide spread at the end of week 2, some strongly negative.
Thursday. Slight negative for NAO/AO, near 0 PNA.
Friday. Slight negative for NAO/AO and near 0 PNA again.
Saturday: Same. Suggests zonal flow.
Monday: AO around 0. NAO increasing late and PNA dropping below zero late. Indications of the pattern change, with major amplification as the strong jet stream buckles. We will see a deep trough somewhere from off the West Coast to the Gulf of Alaska to slightly east and a down stream upper level ridge, somewhere from the Rockies to points east.
Tuesday: All 3 indices a bit negative.
Wednesday: AO a tad negative. NAO and PNA near 0.
Thursday: AO, NAO and PNA slightly negative and not telling us anything.
Friday: AO, NAO, PNA all a smidgeon less than 0. Nothing to write on a forum about.
Saturday: All 3 are slightly negative again. Nothing they can tell us, other than nothing extreme and chilly weather is unlikely.
Sunday: All 3 near to just less than 0. Nothing except to suggest less chance for anything extreme.
Monday: AO, NAO and PNA all slightly negative............nothing to read from these indices other than lessening the risk for an extreme pattern.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated this afternoon. Probably have alot of terrain with slightly elevated probabilities for above average rains.
Its out and has VERY cool temperatures in the center. There could be a major patter transition of change late in week 2, as suggested by wildly gyrating fluctuations/extremes in the operational models solutions. Stay tuned\.
Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
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From Craig Solberg:
Previous discussion:
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: grains
By metmike - June 1, 2019, 7:22 p.m.
To mcfarm who lives in Indianapolis:
Here are the rains the next 9 days, most of them from next weeks system.
It would be one thing if they fell quickly in one day........and we had alot of run off .......which is bad enough. However, falling over a 3-5 day period will maximize soil saturation, even on high ground.
But there is one hope. Look at the sharp cut off I mentioned earlier. Chicago and Detroit may get ZERO rain from this event, while you get numerous inches of rain. IF this system were to track 300 miles farther south, then you would get ZERO rain and areas south of you would get the heavy stuff.
The system is still several days away and the track is not certain. It looks bad for you on most solutions but some of them look good for you.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Sunday
By pll - June 2, 2019, 11:10 a.m.
Planting got back going here Saturday I think a good chunk of ground here in ECIL will get planted before next rain comes except for the real wet fields
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Sunday
By metmike - June 2, 2019, 12:26 p.m.
Thanks pll!
12Z GFS MUCH warmer and more CDD's with heat ridge in the East.....might be an outlier.
By WxFollower - June 3, 2019, 1:34 p.m.
12Z GEFS said it is an outlier. NG back down on that from what I can tell.
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By metmike - June 3, 2019, 1:36 p.m.
Absolutely agree Larry!
Here's what that outlier,12z operational GFS looked like:
Actually, it's very similar to the Summer of 1993! Again, an outlier at this point. The Canadian ensembles moved slightly in that direction and with an upper level trough along the West Coast, there is the potential for amplification similar to this last GFS operational model("potential" is often the reason for outlier solutions, when they over amplify a feature)
The outlier late week 2 pattern features a huge heat ridge in the East and jet stream configuration very similar to 1993.
gfs_namer_384_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht |
The 12z Euro is an outlier in the complete opposite direction. It has a huge heat ridge from the West Coast, across the Rockies to the N.Plains that completely shuts down all of the rain, except for heavy rains in the Southeast over the drought areas, where it would be welcome.
The GFS had the heat ridge in the East, exactly where the EURO has an upper level trough and very cool temps with hot HUMID air streaming north feeding into strong jet coming out of an upper level trough, exactly where the Euro has an upper level ridge.
