Hello June 7th!!! Do something to make somebody feel loved today! Then, after observing the positive results, make a good habit out of it!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere.
Still no major heat in the forecast!! Will the rains pick up again late in week 2???
A key part of the forecast for grains HAS BEEN the southern stream system this week/weekend and how far north it will go. It's been progressively shifted southward the last several days, which will allow for planting to continue to catch up in the Eastern Cornbelt. This continues on Friday and is pretty much a done deal/known now. It means a lot of rain for the driest places and mostly dry for the wettest places.
Week 2 weather is benign but potential increase in rains?
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Wind map Press down on this on the left with your cursor!
Current Jet Stream
| Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Heating up Upper Midwest to N.Plains today, then sharply cooler over the weekend!
Temperature colors on the maps below still need to be adjusted down to cooler shades.
Highs for days 3-7:
Major pattern change from the May pattern!!! Not much fluctuating and close to or just below average............except for some hot days West.
Temperature pattern change from May..
Most of the country close to average but on the cool side...........except hot West.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Weather maps for days 3-7 below
Slow moving southern stream storm finally exists the Southeast after dumping welcome rains on the drought.
A strong progressive cold front that starts sweeping thru this weekend, continues to track southeast at the start of next week, followed by a reinforcing cold front in the middle of the week.
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/daily
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
The system this week continues to go farther south with heavier rains missing the waterlogged areas and hitting the drought areas in the Southeast. This has been a done deal now for the last 3 days.
A cold front this weekend will trigger a new area of very progressive, moderate T-shwrs that sweeps across the entire belt in a 3 day period............excessive rains not expected.
Another cold front in the middle of next week with some scat. moderate rains.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Excessive Rainfall threat the next several days as expected with the slow moving southern stream low. It will miss most of the wet areas farther north and hit most of the very dry areas in the Southeast...........which models have been advertising the last few days now.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 12Z 04/22/19 - 12Z 04/23/19 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
| Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 04/23/19 - 12Z 04/24/19 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Severe Storm risk-the outbreaks are over!!! There will be a small areas with mostly a slight risk in the N.Plains that could continue southeast tomorrow.
Minimal risk after that.
Current Day 1 Outlook | Forecaster: Thompson/Squitieri Issued: 20/1624Z Valid: 20/1630Z - 21/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms |
Current Day 2 Outlook | Forecaster: Broyles Issued: 20/0546Z Valid: 21/1200Z - 22/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk |
Current Day 3 Outlook | Forecaster: Broyles Issued: 20/0711Z Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
Current Dew Points
Dry air Northeast to Ohio Valley. Higher amounts in the South.
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
| (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
The Cornbelt has had way too much rain......no kidding. There will be net drying the next 5 days in most places but others still see scat. shwrs, then a bigger system in the middle of next week.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
Drying continues and planting is catching up. This weeks big rain maker is tracking farther south on weather maps, hitting more dry places and missing more wet places late this week. No change to that outlook the past 3 days.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Surprise, surprise, surprise!! Currently, there is 0% of the Cornbelt/Midwest with drought. There is no place even slightly dry there. It has been dry(and very warm/hot) in the Southeast though which has some drought. The Southeast drought has really increased AGAIN on the June 6 update!!!! However, BIG drought relief is on the way the next several days.
The map below is updated on Thursdays.
The market will be keying on precip forecasts for planting concerns for the next couple of weeks.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:
Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past. This is an end of week 2 forecast!
Last Monday: Very strong agreement on the extremely deep trough/low along the West Coast. Today, this leads to strong ridge building/amplification downstream (as the jet stream buckles) with a heat ridge, anywhere from the Plains to points farther east....maybe in the center of the country. This would SHUT DOWN the rains and turn up the heat for the Cornbelt. If the large scale features are positioned differently,...trough farther east in the Rockies/Plains, it could be the complete opposite.
Tuesday: Similar to yesterday. Trough West, ridge building in the center of the country.
Wednesday: The mean is characterized by a more zonal flow look today but that's just averaging out some extremes. Still the Upper Level low along the West Coast, to the Gulf of Alaska and potential ridge amplification downstream, favored spot is Southcentral US to the W.Gulf states. This a slight shift in the main features and this could go from mostly dry to wet again.
Thursday: Trough to cut off low along the West Coast is deeper today and very impressive. What will happen downstream? Ridge building or more ammo to start up another stormy weather pattern? Not as dry looking as the previous few days.
Friday: Still the deep trough along or off the West Coast to possibly the Gulf of Alaska(not as deep today) and the downstream ridging, building into the SouthCentral US(Plains). Weak trough along the East Coast.
Saturday: Like yesterday. Upper level trough just off the West Coast and downstream ridge, possibly a significant heat ridge on some solutions. Rains could shut down under any upper level high downstream and could increase around the periphery from a strong Pacific jet stream implied from the flow coming under the deep West Coast area trough. Not a clear indication of where heaviest rains might or where it will be dry but temperatures look to be warmer than average over almost all of the US.
Sunday: The ensemble mean is more zonal today. There are variations/solutions with opposite extremes that help to offset each other but the mean is not amplified.
Monday: A little more troughing in the Midwest to Northeast on this model, so cooler there today. Still zonal flow for the mean and a weak(er) trough along the West Coast. A positive anomaly in NW Canada.
Tuesday: SIGNIFICANT changes here late in week 2 vs yesterday on this model.....and only this model. Upper level ridge building in the South/Southeast and points northwestward adds alot of heat to the forecast. Strong jet stream tracking out of the Pacific COULD lead to heavy rains around the periphery of the upper level heat ridge.
Wednesday: Similar to yesterday but with less ridging in the South and Southeast............which is what the other........much cooler models have had.
Thursday: Wide spread in solutions. Trough just off the West Coast should be watched for connection to potential increase in heavy rains later in week 2.
Friday: Hardly much change from yesterday but ridging in the Southeast that popped up on Tuesday, continues to go away on this model. Still a trough just off the West Coast. Not a hot pattern. Not a dry pattern.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jun 22, 2019 00 UTC
0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:
Analysis, starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:
Last Monday: Similar pattern to the Canadian model but large scale features are shifted west/northwest. The deep upper level low is from SW Canada to the Gulf of Alaska and downstream upper level high/ridge is from the Rockies to Plains. This also allows for some troughing, even farther downstream along the East Coast and cooler temps there.
Tuesday: Deep trough to cutoff low anywhere from the West Coast to the Gulf of Alaska with amplifying upper level ridge down stream(Plains?) late in week 2.
Wednesday: Same as yesterday but with more members featuring a trough in the East/Northeast. No question, a dry pattern with the Gulf cut off and no ridging in the Southeast. Warmest temps in the Plains to West.
Thursday: All sorts of solutions from a heat ridge to a cut off upper level low in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.
Friday: Still a great deal of variation with solutions. Best agreement might be upper level ridge in the Plains and upper level low somewhere in the vicinity of the PAC Northwest.
Saturday: Watching the West Coast trough/low and strong Pacific jet stream associated with that to tell us whats coming for mid June and beyond. Temperatures look quite warm over much of the country with no northern stream interactions.
Sunday: Trough along the West Coast less significant as well as down stream ridging less. Trough in the Northeast significant on half the solutions.
Monday: Not very decisive.
Tuesday: Not as significant with the heat ridge in the Southeast as the Canadian ensembles. A big spread in solutions.
Wednesday: Could it turn wet again late in week 2? No major heat even though a few try to build a heat ridge in the south to southeast.
Thursday: Looks pretty wet later in week 2. The 12z run was WARMER.
Friday: Widespread in solutions, especially with regards to the northern stream.
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average). The daily analysis starts with the oldest and ends with the latest.
Last Tuesday: A weak NEGATIVE anomaly in the far Southeast,tells us the long lived heat ridge will be going bye bye!!!! Now, we have an extensive positive anomaly along the Canadian border in the new pattern...........which will be drier with the heat ridge not steering Gulf air north and blocking progression. Don't see the negative anomaly along the West Coast here but its there on the Canadian model.
Wednesday: Weak NEGATIVE anomaly in the East is even more confirmation that the long lived heat ridge will be dead. Very cool in the East. Positive anomaly in the Plains to West. This is a major pattern change.
Thursday: Very weak negative anomaly very far Southeast/Florida. Positive anomaly Northeast Canada.
Friday: Exactly like Thursday but much uncertainty though it looks progressive.
Saturday: The greatest positive anomalies are at the higher latitudes but most of the US looks to have slightly above 500 mb height anomalies, which means warm temperatures.
Sunday: Same as Saturday
Monday: NOT the same as the last 2 days. Growing Positive anomaly in the N.Rockies is noteworthy as it represents the current, favored locations for a building upper level ridge. Along with a modest negative anomaly in the Gulf of Mexico, this is the recipe for a DRY pattern, with the GOM shut down. There would be some heat close the ridge and on this model the heat is most likely farther west, than on the Canadian model solution above. This is almost the complete opposite of the recent pattern that has dominated in May.
Tuesday: Significant positive anomaly N.Plains!
Wednesday: Big positive anomaly in the N.Plains again and now, a modest negative anomaly in the Northeast, along with a slight negative anomaly off the West Coast. This is suggestive of a trough/ridge/trough couplet. Warm under the ridge and likely dry. Amplification could take on an Omega Block signature but that speculating. There still could be some moisture and energy from the West Coast trough which gets aimed towards the Plains.
Thursday: Positive anomaly in the N.Plains has weakened. Negative anomaly along the West Coast. Great uncertainty but not as dry overall vs the last few days.
Friday: Weak positive anomaly in the center of the country.........stronger at higher latitudes(Canada). Weak negative anomaly along the West Coast, stronger one in Southeast Canada which mean cool in the Northeast.
Saturday: The decent negative anomaly in Southeast Canada has filled in..........so that takes out the northern stream component and makes this high confidence for warmer than average. Negative anomaly along the West Coast is now more significant. This will help to modulate the jet streams location and determine where down stream ridging might be, along with the new zone for rains setting up around the periphery of the potential ridge.
Sunday: A bit of a negative anomaly againt in Southeast Canada might bring cooler air to the Northeast and middle of the country. The rest of the US has had previous anomalies filled in.
Monday: Slight negative anomalies in Southeast Canada, if they grow would be a source of cool air. Negative anomaly along the southern West Coast could steer wet weather and a jet stream towards the Plains.
Tuesday: Huge positive anomaly today in N/C Canada (and smaller one off the Pacific NW) is actually favorable for cooler air below it into the central and Northeastern US.
Wednesday: Notable/strong positive anomaly in Canada with a modest one in Southeast Canada will likely be a source of northern stream cool air. Another modest negative anomaly from the Southwest US towards the C.Plains(with a trough along the southern West Coast........oh,oh, this could represent the makings of more heavy rains..IF another heat ridge builds in the Southeast.
Thursday: Big positive anomaly in N.Canada back to Siberia. Modest negative anomaly Midwest to Northeast and off the Pacific Northwest coast. Favorable for cool in the middle to Northeast and wet.
The 12z run was WARMER!
Friday: Still the positive anomaly in N.Canada and around the Gulf of Alaska/Northeast Pacific. and a modest negative anomaly, one from the northern stream in Southeast Canada(cool air link?) another in the Southwest from the southern stream(potential for rains returning?)
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast 
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Last Monday: AO around 0. NAO increasing late and PNA dropping below zero late. Indications of the pattern change, with major amplification as the strong jet stream buckles. We will see a deep trough somewhere from off the West Coast to the Gulf of Alaska to slightly east and a down stream upper level ridge, somewhere from the Rockies to points east.
Tuesday: All 3 indices a bit negative.
Wednesday: AO a tad negative. NAO and PNA near 0.
Thursday: AO, NAO and PNA slightly negative and not telling us anything.
Friday: AO, NAO, PNA all a smidgeon less than 0. Nothing to write on a forum about.
Saturday: All 3 are slightly negative again. Nothing they can tell us, other than nothing extreme and chilly weather is unlikely.
Sunday: All 3 near to just less than 0. Nothing except to suggest less chance for anything extreme.
Monday: AO, NAO and PNA all slightly negative............nothing to read from these indices other than lessening the risk for an extreme pattern.
Tuesday: A change. AO and NAO now more negative and PNA positive would suggest cooler air from high latitudes has a better path towards middle latitudes in the middle of the country............but there is great uncertainty.
Wednesday: AO is slightly negative again with a pretty negative NAO and slightly positive PNA means COOL is very likely.
Thursday: AO slight negative. NAO moderatly negative, PNA positive. Favors widespread cool in the middle to eastern US.
Friday: Negative AO and NAO suggest cool air. PNA a tad positive.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated this afternoon.
For sure quite cool in the midsection this afternoon with the update but will rains start increasing again late in the period from the west? .
Will temperatures start to warm late in week 2?
Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
 | |
Simply amazing; past 12 months the wettest on record for the Nation and EASILY the wettest on record for the Corn Belt. Precipitation 8.53" above normal for 1902/03 in the Corn Belt simply PALES in comparison to our most recent 12 month period...an incredible 13.88" above normal
Previous discussion:
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: grains
By metmike - June 1, 2019, 7:22 p.m.
To mcfarm who lives in Indianapolis:
Here are the rains the next 9 days, most of them from next weeks system.
It would be one thing if they fell quickly in one day........and we had alot of run off .......which is bad enough. However, falling over a 3-5 day period will maximize soil saturation, even on high ground.
But there is one hope. Look at the sharp cut off I mentioned earlier. Chicago and Detroit may get ZERO rain from this event, while you get numerous inches of rain. IF this system were to track 300 miles farther south, then you would get ZERO rain and areas south of you would get the heavy stuff.
The system is still several days away and the track is not certain. It looks bad for you on most solutions but some of them look good for you.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Sunday
By pll - June 2, 2019, 11:10 a.m.
Planting got back going here Saturday I think a good chunk of ground here in ECIL will get planted before next rain comes except for the real wet fields
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Sunday
By metmike - June 2, 2019, 12:26 p.m.
Thanks pll!
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
By metmike - June 3, 2019, 1:02 p.m.
12Z GFS MUCH warmer and more CDD's with heat ridge in the East.....might be an outlier.
By WxFollower - June 3, 2019, 1:34 p.m.
12Z GEFS said it is an outlier. NG back down on that from what I can tell.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
By metmike - June 3, 2019, 1:36 p.m.
Absolutely agree Larry!
Here's what that outlier,12z operational GFS looked like:
Actually, it's very similar to the Summer of 1993! Again, an outlier at this point. The Canadian ensembles moved slightly in that direction and with an upper level trough along the West Coast, there is the potential for amplification similar to this last GFS operational model("potential" is often the reason for outlier solutions, when they over amplify a feature)
The outlier late week 2 pattern features a huge heat ridge in the East and jet stream configuration very similar to 1993.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Monday
By metmike - June 3, 2019, 3:28 p.m.
The 12z Euro is an outlier in the complete opposite direction. It has a huge heat ridge from the West Coast, across the Rockies to the N.Plains that completely shuts down all of the rain, except for heavy rains in the Southeast over the drought areas, where it would be welcome.
The GFS had the heat ridge in the East, exactly where the EURO has an upper level trough and very cool temps with hot HUMID air streaming north feeding into strong jet coming out of an upper level trough, exactly where the Euro has an upper level ridge.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Thusday
By mcfarmer - June 6, 2019, 1:11 p.m.
Perfect corn weather here.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Thanks mcfarmer. I know that you sold some corn earlier on one of our spikes higher. We could make new highs later this Summer but you have to feel pretty dang good about your crop in IA right now. What country is that.?
This is a low skill forecast because its so far out. Very bearish for natural gas. Normally very bearish for the grains but there are 2 items that make it potentially bullish for the grains:
1. The large scale features morph back towards what we had in May......... heat ridge in the south or southeast and strong jet stream coming in from the Pacific, causing excessive rains around the periphery of the heat ridge. Wet soils in the Midwest favor above rain and below temps.
2. If temperatures stay cool, the late planted corn will fall even farther behind, not getting many heat units/growing degree days and have an even higher risk of freeze damage, if we have an early freeze...........lets say, the first half of September.
| Week 3-4 Outlooks | ||
| Valid: 22 Jun 2019 to 05 Jul 2019 Updated: 07 Jun 2019 | ||
| Please provide comments using the online survey. | ||
Temperature Probability | Precipitation Probability (Experimental)  | |
Our local weather forcast shows 30% chance of rain on June 9 increasing to 80% on June 10 [Great Lakes]
June 10 is the cut off date anybody will plant corn and have any hope of missing frost. Assuming normal to good growing conditions, that is still taking a chance on frost and the latest we have ever planted corn. One customer has bu sold and not enough planted to fill contracts, thus the worry.
We planted beans today on the only dry ground we had
So: To make it interesting
We have 200 plus acres that everybody wants planted on June 9 before the June 10 rain
Even more frustrating they want to start at 12 o'clock noon, June 9 to let the soil dry as much as possible
This is scattered over 4 plots of ground 15 miles apart with one plot only 10 acres but the closest to our home farm. The largest is 100 acres of touch and go clay ground but our sweet corn customer. Our most important customer with 700 acres of total custom work
No way can we please everybody as it takes time to move from farm to farm
If we miss June 10 rain then everybody is happy but with the recent rains, every 3 days, nobody wans to be left out
Our last rain was Wednesday
I have no idea if that 200 acres will be dry but the phone lit up today.
Thanks Wayne.
I hope you miss the rain but chances start increasing for you late on June 9th and look pretty likely on June 10th.
The map below is at the end of the day June 9th with 24 hour rains that day, followed by the end of June 10th with 24 hour rains...............looks bad on June 10th, probably starting the night before.........but things can change.
Forecast Hour: 060
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/precip_p24/gfs_namer_060_precip_p24.gif
| Next >> |
Forecast Hour: 084
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/precip_p24/gfs_namer_084_precip_p24.gif
