KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, May 8, 2018
6:00 AM ET. April NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 104.7)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -1.4%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.4%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +3.0%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +3.5%)
10:00 AM ET. March Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
10:00 AM ET. May IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 52.6)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 49.7)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.4M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.6M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.1M)
Wednesday, May 9, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 388.6)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -2.5%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 258.1)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.6%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1104.9)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -3.5%)
8:30 AM ET. April PPI
PPI, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.1%)
10:00 AM ET. March Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +1.0%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 435.955M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +6.218M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 237.978M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.171M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 118.829M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.9M)
Refinery Usage (previous 91.1%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.164M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +1.164M)
Thursday, May 10, 2018
8:30 AM ET. April Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1640.1K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 387.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 475.6K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 211K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +2K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1756000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -77K)
8:30 AM ET. April CPI
CPI, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -2.8%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
CPI, Y/Y% (previous +2.4%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +2.1%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1343B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +62B)
12:00 AM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
12:00 AM ET. April Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
2:00 PM ET. April Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, May 11, 2018
8:30 AM ET. April Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous +0.0%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.1%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -1.3%)
10:00 AM ET. May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 97.8)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 86.8)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 115.0)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight as investors wait for President Donald Trump’s decision on a key nuclear deal with Iran.The market is also digesting fresh rounds of earnings reports and economic data. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off the late-April low, April's high crossing at 6867.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 6538.00 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 6867.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6951.00. First support is the late-April low crossing at 6429.25. Second support is April's low crossing at 6306.75.
The June S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2679.38 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 2554.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 2718.00. Second resistance isthe reaction high crossing at 2741.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2584.50. Second support is April's low crossing at 2554.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off April's high, February's low crossing at 141-14 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-08. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146-02. First support is April's low crossing at 141-17. Second support is February's low crossing at 141-14.
June T-notes were slightly lower overnight. Nevertheless, stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.061 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off April's high, monthly support crossing at 117.180 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.252. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.061. First support is the late-April low crossing at 118.310. Second support is monthly support crossing at 117.180.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS:JuneNymex crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates above broken trading range resistance crossing at 69.55. Investors await a decision from President Donald Trump on the Iranian nuclear deal. The U.S.’s allies in Europe were preparing for a withdrawal, though some officials there hoped Trump would move slowly to reapply sanctions, which would leave more time for negotiations. On Monday, prices rose to levels not seen since late 2014 as investors bet that Trump would pull the U.S. out of the agreement, which lifted economic sanctions on Iran in return for restrictions on the country’s nuclear program. Such a move would cut global supply by making it tough for Iran to export oil. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 72.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 70.84. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 72.85. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.08. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.88.
June heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as the market awaits President Trump's decision whether or not to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal or not. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the contract high crossing at 235.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 211.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 218.71. Second resistance is the the contract high crossing at 235.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 211.57. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 201.60.
June unleaded gas was lower due to light profit taking overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 217.77 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 205.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 215.23. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 217.77. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 205.29. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 201.68.
June Henry natural gas was higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish with the overnight rally signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.767 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 2.660 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 2.844. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.873. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2.691. Second support is April's low crossing at 2.660.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018 decline crossing at 93.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.87 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 92.94. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018-decline crossing at 93.29. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 92.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 90.87.
The June Euro was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 118.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.16 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.56. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.16. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 118.54. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 117.35.
The June British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 1.3148 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3943 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3702. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3943. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1.3511. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.3148.
The June Swiss Franc were steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 0.9833 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0234 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0087. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0234. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.9977. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.9833.
The June Canadian Dollar was sharply lower overnight as it renewed the decline off April's high with the overnight downside breakout of the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 76.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.42 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.42. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 79.92. First support is the overnight low crossing at 77.06. Second support is March's low crossing at 76.33.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9254 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9047 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9254. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9380 First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 0.9111. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9047.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower overnight due to continued strength in the US Dollar. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1329.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1329.20. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1369.40. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1279.20.
July silver was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.667 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off April's high, December's low crossing at 15.805 is the next downside target. First resistance is the the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.667. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 16.950. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 16.070. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.805.
June copper was lower overnight and is poised to resume the decline off April's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 298.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.59. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 320.00. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 301.00. Second support is April's low crossing at 298.39.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight. Monday afternoon's planting progress report showed that 39% of this year's corn crop had been planted compared with pre-report estimates of 37% planted. At the same time weather forecast for the upper Midwest suggest that further rain delays are possible for the region this week. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.96 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.16 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 4.08 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.16 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.01 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.96 1/4.
July wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extends the decline off last Thursday's high. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.00 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.43 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.43 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.00 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.94 1/2.
July Kansas City Wheat closed down 16 1/4-cents at 5.39 1/2.
July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday due to profit taking after hitting multi-month highs last week, especially with analysts calling for no changes in the crop’s good-to-excellent ratings from a week ago. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a double top with March's high could have been posted last week. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.77 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 5.67 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.77. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.39 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.27.
July Minneapolis wheat was steady to slightly higher overnight. Spring wheat planting made a moderate progress last week with analysts predicting 33% of the crop is now in the ground as of May 6, versus the prior week’s total of 10%. It’s still well behind last year’s pace of 54% seeded. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends Monday's decline, the late-April low crossing at 5.91 1/4 is a potential downside target. If July renews the rally off the late-April low crossing at 5.91 1/4, April's high crossing at 6.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 6.30 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 6.43 1/2. First support is the late-April low crossing at 5.91 1/4. Second support is April's low crossing at 5.81.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans were higher due to short covering overnight. Monday's sell off was due to weak exports with bleak prospects from China a real threat moving forward until the current U.S.-China trade debate is resolved. Soybean export inspections reached 19.6 million bushels was moderately higher than this week a year ago (13.6 million bushels) and on the high end of the average trade guess between 13 million and 23 million bushels. Germany was the No. 1 destination for U.S. soybean export inspections, with 3.1 million bushels. The USDA estimated 13% of the soybean crop has been planted as of May 6, versus 5% a week ago and 14% a year ago. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the reaction low crossing at 10.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.50 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 10.67 1/2. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 10.78. First support is the reaction low crossing at 10.14. Second support is April's low crossing at 9.94 1/2.
July soybean meal was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of its recent losses. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 382.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at 414.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 406.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 414.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 382.80. Second support is the late-April's low crossing at 373.80.
July soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.18 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally crossing at 29.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 30.77. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.18. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 30.15. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally crossing at 29.35.