INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - May 11, 2018, 7:41 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, May 11, 2018  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April Import & Export Price Indexes

 



 

 

                       Import Prices (previous +0.0%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Petroleum Prices (previous -1.3%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 97.8)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 86.8)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 115.0)

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight with the Dow industrials poised to post the longest winning streak since late last year, as investors breathed a bit easier over inflation and dollar’s swift pace of gains slowed. Investors will hear from a Federal Reserve official and get updates on import prices and consumer sentiment. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off the late-April low, the 87% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 7098.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6743.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 6987.87. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 7098.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6743.11. Second support is May's low crossing at 6538.00.    



The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 2741.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2669.83 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 2718.00. Second resistance isthe reaction high crossing at 2741.00. First support is May's low crossing at 2592.50. Second support is April's low crossing at 2554.00.     



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-07 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off April's high, February's low crossing at 141-14 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-07. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146-02. First support is April's low crossing at 141-17. Second support is February's low crossing at 141-14.



June T-notes were slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.044 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off April's high, monthly support crossing at 117.180 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.188. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.044. First support is the late-April low crossing at 118.310. Second support is monthly support crossing at 117.180.  



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: JuneNymex crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this year's rally overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 72.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 71.89. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 72.85. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 65.48.  



June heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the contract high crossing at 235.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 213.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 223.39. Second resistance is the the contract high crossing at 235.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 213.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 203.46. 



June unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 248.43 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 205.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 219.59. Second support is monthly resistance crossing at 248.43. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 205.29. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 203.16. 



June Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends Thursday's rally, April's high crossing at 2.844 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 2.695 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 2.844. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.873. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.695. Second support is April's low crossing at 2.660.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.36 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018 decline crossing at 94.46 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018-decline crossing at 93.29. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018-decline crossing at 94.46. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 92.47. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.36.



The June Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates above the 87% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 118.54. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.45 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off April's high, last-November low crossing at 117.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 119.81. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.45. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 118.54. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 117.35. 



The June British Pound was higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, December's low crossing at 1.3148 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3842 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3604. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3842. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1.3480. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.3148.  



The June Swiss Franc were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 0.9833 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0166 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0037. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0166. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 0.9972. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.9833.



The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally April's high crossing at 79.92 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 78.60. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 79.92. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 76.99. Second support is March's low crossing at 76.33.  



The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9221 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9047 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9221. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9363. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 0.9110. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9047.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1325.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1325.30. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1369.40. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1279.20.



July silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 16.950 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.501 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 16.950. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 17.425. First support is May's low crossing at 16.070. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.805. 



June copper was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 315.65 is the next upside target. If June resumes the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 298.39 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 315.65. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 320.00. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 300.50. Second support is April's low crossing at 298.39. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was lower overnight as it extends a two-week old trading range. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.97 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.16 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 4.08 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.16 1/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.99 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.97 1/4.  



July wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.43 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.43 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.02. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.94 1/2.      



July Kansas City Wheat closed down 4 1/2-cents at 5.27. 



July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.26 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.77 is the next upside target.First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 5.67 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-Dec.-decline crossing at 5.77. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.26 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.22 1/2. 



July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the late-April low crossing at 5.91 1/4 is a potential downside target. If July renews the rally off the late-April low crossing at 5.91 1/4, April's high crossing at 6.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 6.30 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 6.43 1/2. First support is the late-April low crossing at 5.91 1/4. Second support is April's low crossing at 5.81. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 9.94 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.46 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 10.67 1/2. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 10.78. First support is Monday's low crossing at 10.10 3/4. Second support is April's low crossing at 9.94 1/2. 



July soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 382.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at 414.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 406.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 414.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 382.50. Second support is the late-April's low crossing at 373.80. 



July soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.06 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally crossing at 29.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.06. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.69. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 30.15. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally crossing at 29.35. 



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