Remember when? I sure do.

http://www.farmprogress.com/weather/looking-back-september-1974-s-unparalleled-frost-damage

Perfect time to bring up this subject.  The pattern coming up in week 2 MIGHT be morphing cold enough to cause the first legit, early frost threat in numerous years. You'll find this thread below very enlightening:

Damaging Midwest Freezes the last 50 years

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/36333/

cliff,

You and mcfarm must have been "Spring Chickens" back in 1974. That's the year that I graduated from high school (in Detroit) and didn't know what a commodity was  only knowing grains based on corn on a cob and Rice a Roni (-:

I see that the composite plots from numerous weather maps from Sept 1974 do not come out anymore like they did initially. Let me go to that site again and pull them up and try copying over.

They are incredibly impressive!

The highest risk for a sub 32 degree reading right now is in the blue shade between Sept 7-10, the 12-14 day time frame. 

You could say that there is a 30% chance of a light freeze in the blue shaded area. 

Not alot of production in those spots but this is like the tip of the iceberg with regards to much more cold farther north.

Shift that 500 miles farther south and the entire Upper Midwest will have a frost/freeze threat. 

So we are getting late enough in the growing season, with the longer nights in Canada brewing some colder temps, along with a somewhat favorable pattern for colder air in the Midwest(ideally, it needs to amplify much more) for there to be a weather scare rally from the cold threat. ...........but only if it gets colder than this by, lets say at least 5 degrees.

During the 1960's in our location we regularly had frost some time before Sept 10

In fact most people did not count Sept as any days for maturity. Mind you we did not take corn to the elevator. Everything we grew went into the cows, from hay, pasture and cob corn, We grew wheat for the straw and sold the wheat, so that part [wheat] did go to town. I can remember the corn getting frozen with a killing frost many times,  1st week of Sept. but we just fed it to the cows. Not many folks grew corn for grain corn back then in our location.

In the 1970's and later yrs., for some reason our frost date is later.

I ran the A/C today, in the truck, whilst getting parts so we must be getting some heat. Not as many hrs in a day so the corn needs to hurry up a bit.

"In the 1970's and later yrs., for some reason our frost date is later."

Global warming Wayne. It's affected the higher latitude with benefits the most.  You live in Canada. 

The term morphed into climate change, then climate crisis, now a push for climate emergency.

What do you think Wayne? Would you like some global warming in Sept this year? Or would a later freeze vs the 1960's(when you had damaging freezes earlier in Canada)  be a benefit or a crisis/emergency?

Today's models have very low chances of a freeze in week 2:

Mike MAGUIRE

Wed 8/28/2019 9:52 AM

Freeze risk today very low, almost non existent on guidance as temps are a bit warmer than yesterday.

Percentage: < 30%  Contours

The last US model was much colder early in week 2!

https://www.agweb.com/article/look-prevent-plant-above?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTXpabU1UaGhOall6TnpNMyIsInQiOiJEbVJMT1JTZ2dpRVJpSzR2QkN5a0srYVwvcmo1aEpyMWI0eVlqVjJRZm1VTEczSW9mTno1dm5CeUFraWQxWEtRR2FaQWE5RGdvVm9oQ0tMXC9lWmZ4RURBTVRFOUx1eXFHdXh2TWN3MmNnbTgybmpDcVhiQ2R3NWhvSXBlcnJVcmVIIn0%3D     Illinois PP from the sky....very interesting flight

Thanks mcfarm!

Who could have imagined back in June that prices could drop this far with such an awful start and so many acres not planted.

An entity that starts with the letter U did (-:

Golly Mike

Because I live in Canada you make it sound as if I farm in the tundra

You do know I farm 70 miles East from where your dad lives plus however many miles from your dad to the ambassador bridge

Travelling the 401 from Detroit to our farm is a bit up hill but golly not very much. You would not know it unless you were pulling a heavy load.

So:

I don't think altitude difference gave us 5 extra weeks of frost free days. We have frost about the same time as just across from Detroit in Windsor..

I find that 5 weeks hard to believe and I don't think your comment about farming in Canada is  a valid statement for our farm. Our farm is the same longtitude as northern Cal.

Your map shows our 1st frost from Oct. 10-20

Find a map and follow it from east to west.

Wayne,

I know exactly where you live and what the weather is like and why. That's my business.

I am talking about your country Wayne.

Canada has some great soils to grow crops(there are some drainage issues with the clay) but the biggest limiting factor for Canada, by a wide margin is that it's too cold  in most places.

You are lucky enough to live in far Southern Canada, having enough growing degree days to grow corn, beans, wheat and other crops............just barely.

Most of your wonderful country is north of you however and the farther north that you go, the colder that it gets.

You farm in far southern Ontario but what about northern Ontario?

Why don't we go ahead and ask northern Ontario what they have to say about this:

Northern Ontario Agriculture               Facts and Figures in Brief

http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/livestock/beef/news/info_vbn0713a4.htm

Climate change is having a global impact on agriculture, especially               in Northeastern Ontario. What could this mean for the future of               this region?

• 1,985 farms which return $208 million in agricultural farm cash                 receipt. 
•               
• 633,457 acres of farmed land in Northern Ontario. 

• The main limitations to productivity in the Great Clay Belt                 and Northern Ontario are drainage and climate. Systematic tile                 drainage has been shown to address the first limitation. Long-term                 climate warming and the development of new crop varieties and                 agronomic techniques have revolutionized the crops which can be                 grown across Northern Ontario. (Figure 2)o 
• Go

• This warming trend goes back at least 30 years, and is exemplified                 by the increase in annual crop heat units (CHU), such as Earlton                 from 1800 to 2300 CHU. This has had a major positive impact on                 crop production. For example, soybeans, corn grain and silage                 corn are now reliably grown in the Temiskaming region, while canola                 has supplemented the traditional barley, oat and wheat crops in                 the Cochrane-Kapuskasing area.

Canada..........a country that especially appreciates the benefits of the current climate optimum!

Go Canada!!

Figure 2. Kapuskasing Crop Heat Unit               trend

What we are NOT told by the gatekeepers of the climate secrets is that the global warming is greatest at the higher latitudes, not hearly as much at lower latitudes. 

Northern Ontario in Canada for instance is a perfect example. Just look at this massive increase in heat units again:

Figure 2. Kapuskasing Crop Heat Unit               trend

I couldn't find the exact same chart for you but found a location, south central Wisconsin in the US which is much farther south and close to your latitude to compare with.

In stead of heat units, we have here cooling degree days(which basically measures temperature (changes) in a different way.

Note that instead of the steady, pronounced  and beneficial climb higher that we saw in N.Ontario, the increase in WI has been very minor(during the Summer) but there HAS been an increase in the last 4 decades..........after a decrease in the 1930's to the 1970's.

http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco/clim-history/division/graphics/WI08-cddu-area.gif

The 2nd graph shows heating degree days in the Winter/cold season for southcental WI. Note that they have dropped recently. More evidence that the majority of warming is happening in the coldest places and during the coldest times of year.

http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco/clim-history/division/graphics//WI08-hddu-area.gif

More proof of the climate optimum because the places that are too cold are getting warmed the most...............closer to what would be ideal and at the coldest times of year, when most places would prefer more warmth.

Gosh darn it MIke but you can sure turn a topic on it's ear 

You say you know exactly where I farm and what we grow. Good. I believe you, but you sure don't know much else about our farm, when you say we can barely grow corn, beans, wheat, due to a lack of growing degree days. And don't go on about northern Ontario because we don't farm in northern Ontario. That is rocks and trees, and not a part of my post or observation.

Now this whole thing started when I said we used to get a killing frost in early  Sept

Then in the 1970's I said we seem to have almost 5 full weeks of more frost free growing days

You made the comment it was global warming and altitude

I say I don't believe that

I think I proved that altitude is not a part of the equation because it barely registers re; A trip down 401 to our farm

We have  more growing degree days for corn beans etc than anything north of Southern to mid  Chicago 

That is NOT just barely enough to grow corn beans etc

Our climate is much like southern Mich. 

Where this northern Ontario or Canadian wheat country and small grains climate came from in this post is a mystery to me. I was talking about a longer growing season on our farm, and surrounding area, not any where else 

Now the clay you talk about is probably Essex county and parts of the old Talbot Trail along Lake Erie. Just to clarify there was not much PP on that clay, that I know about from our farm to Windsor..

Part of that acreage actually has maybe 7-10 days more growing degree days than our farm. That is not just barely enough to grow corn etc.

Now as for our farm growing degree days we have more growing season degrees, and plant longer season varieties than ALL of Ia, MN WI, N and S Dakota

I did not refer to any other part of Canada when I said we started to have a longer growing season starting during the 1970's

 Don' tell me during the 1970's the  longer growing season is due to global warming. This happened all of a sudden in maybe 5 or less yrs, on our farm and local location. Forget the rest of Canada, I did not say a word about anything except our farm and I am positive it could not be because of a 1 degree plus warming event

It happened too fast for global warming to be a factor

If you want to talk about our location and explain what happened then I can accept the reason why, but as of now I do not believe global warming changed our season in 5 yrs or less.

When we froze in Sept it was a lot more than a degree or two below freezing, thus my thinking a degree plus of global warming did not happen on our farm, in 5 yrs or less. Heck how much global warming happened in 1970???

By the way your map of average killing frost date is accurate as much as I can tell, for our location, as of today.. The map barely shows our farm as I get only a part of it on my screen, so I have to guess a bit.

Thanks Wayne

Are you saying your science can not explain what happened on our farm and surrounding location.. To say the science is settled  is a rather bold statement 

Yes I believe CO2 is beneficial, on average, over the entire planet.

Maybe it is a bit early to say the science is settled?? I do think you have the most correct thoughts, of anything I have read but what if there is another missing part, and then another that nobody thought about

That is why I did not question until I had some evidence of my own.

And I thought somebody should ask some questions before we all agree the science is settled

Tell your wife we certainly don't understand my farm, so she might be a wee tiny bit correct.

A post saying thank you does no tell me very much except to say enough is enough., I think I have made a valid point that the science does not have all the answers. Maybe the science is not completely settled

I agree 100% that the science is not settled. I've been stressing that point for 2 decades.

On the other stuff, I gave you my points and evidence.

I'm hearing that the grains have been getting strength because of cold and frost risk.

There are no models at any time frame that show this. In fact the late week 2 maps look warmer today and if they verify, a frost would be almost impossible.

Here's the sub freezing temp threat
for Sept 6-9, which looks like the coldest period coming up. Maybe below 32 degrees could happen in the Upper Great Lakes area. Even there, odds are below 50%.

The NWS extended guidance this afternoon looks too cold to me, especially the 8-14 day.

Friday risk for subfreezing temp Sept 7-10