I like watching relationships in commodities.  Crude vs gold...  Bonds vs S&Ps...  

Those relationships, and their relevance, emerge and recede.  The big rally in gold from the early 2000s to 2011 was, for the most part, inversely related to interest rates.  The reasoning being that if your money can't earn interest then gold looks more attractive.  There was no inflation during this time (except in RE, stocks, college tuition and health costs).

Of late, I have noticed that when stocks break, gold rips higher.  If you look at the first week of August you'll notice that as the stock market broke, the gold market ripped higher (flight to safety or lower interest rates).  It is also true that the interest rate market is trading opposite to the stock market (flight to safety).  On August 23rd, you'll notice that as the stock market got hit (Dow avg down 800) the gold ripped higher by $28 / oz.

What I find most revealing however, is that when the stock market rallies, the gold market does break a little, but not nearly as much as it rips higher when stocks are breaking.   From August 26th to this morning's pre market trade the stock market has recovered all the declines from Aug 23rd and then some, but gold barely broke at all, only giving back half of the gains from the rally on August 23rd.

My conclusion from all this is that the gold market has internal strength and I believe it is going MUCH higher.  Currently, I'm a little bullish on S&Ps.  I'm only bullish because everyone is so bearish.  Also the announcement from China that it won't retaliate in the upcoming tariff increase has the market rallying nicely.  

If the Stk market rallies nicely over the coming month or 2 and the gold continues to be stubborn and not break too much I'd like to buy gold in the 1475-1500 range.  I think taking out the highs of 2011 at $1900 is possible.