The truth below, is on Trump's side. He may have relayed an older forecast in a tweet after the forecast had been updated but Alabama was a legit target for Dorians path for 5 days last week. 

After looking at some of our model output below, please note where Alabama is and how many model solutions take the path into Alabama.

The maps below came out between August 24-28. Initially, on August 24th, only the superior European model was predicting that Dorian would hit Alabama. Then, on August 28th, the GFS/American model changed it's tune and agreed with the European model, with both these major models having numerous solutions aimed at the state of Alabama into August 29th.  See it yourself.

It wasn't until later in the week, mainly Friday Morning, August 30th, when all the models shifted strongly to the right/north, taking Dorian up the East Coast. However for 6 days prior to that, Alabama was not just an outside probability track but during some of that time, was close to the model mean/most likely track...especially on the more superior European model: 

Update: in reviewing the maps below, I realize that the GFS ensembles, not just the European models had Alabama as a potential target during the previous weekend too when they were all, 100% forecasting the Gulf of Mexico. Wxgrant is chief meteorologist for a tv station in Missouri who generously shares his tropical weather graphics and expertise with us.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/37474/

                Re: Re: Dorian: shields up E Caribbean at the least            

                        By wxgrant - Aug. 24, 2019, 10:07 p.m.            

GFS ensembles are locked in to a path   

                By wxgrant - Aug. 24, 2019, 10:18 p.m.            

Here is a look at the EURO ensembles. The operational models GFS and EURO seem to move it over Hispaniola which would break it apart.  If it stays south of Hispaniola or moves through the Florida Straits it will be with us a while.  Now we watch.  

                Re: Re: Dorian: shields up E Caribbean at the least            

                By wxgrant - Aug. 27, 2019, 10:08 p.m.            

The EURO really wants to bring this into the Gulf. 

                By metmike - Aug. 28, 2019, 12:29 p.m.            

The just updated US model curves Dorian MUCH farther to the left/west!

In fact, an entirely different path.

Instead of going up the Coast, it tracks Dorian across S.GA to AL, then even MS and from there, north to TN/KY.

What a drastic change!

    By wxgrant - Aug. 28, 2019, 9:47 p.m.            

The EURO ensembles are making this a big Gulf of Mexico Impact! The Euro was correct with the placement of the blocking high over the East coast and now the GFS is catching on tho this as well as Mike said sending this farther west. 

Well known hurricane expert, Dr. Ryan Maue saw the same thing described above.

Thanks Ryan!

Ryan Maue@RyanMaue

·

Insane people:  Extrapolating the NHC 5-day cone of Hurricane #Dorian is most definitely an impeachable offense.   Normal people:  yeah that's probably a reasonable extrapolation into Day 7.

·

3h

Thankfully, the acting NOAA admin Neil Jacobs was asked to personally brief the President with trusted, accurate information.  The threat to Alabama quickly went to zero as new model data arrived.  But, Trump's Tweet didn't reflect that new info.

Ryan Maue@RyanMaue

In summary, the "Alabama" Tweet was based upon stale information.  The motivation was obviously to inform the public & update on Dorian.  Nothing nefarious.  Just admit it an move on, right?  Nope. That's not how this works between media and Trump.

Ryan Maue@RyanMaue

Maybe it's a good thing we don't issue 7-day forecasts yet.   Had I advised the President on Wednesday evening, I'd probably have told him that #Dorian could cross the peninsula into the Gulf and end up in Alabama, sort of like the WPC 7-day surface prog.

Since we're doing a reality check. 

As predicted, we are hearing all about Dorian and climate change, with our first major hurricane of the season(as if we never had hurricanes like this before-yeah, just like this and some even worse)

                Ocasio-Cortez ties climate change to Hurricane Dorian             

            https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/38326/

So here is the reality:

1. At 1 deg. warmer the atmosphere and warmer water adds up to 5-6% more moisture and precipitable water to the air and to hurricanes. Not 600% or even 60% more, just 6%. The dynamics with each hurricane are different but lets apply that to Dorian's amount of rain to help you equate that with the real world.

Rainfall amounts of 30 inches were reported in the Bahamas. That's an incredible amount of rain. What if, we were able to take Dorian back to the atmosphere, ocean and CO2 levels of a century ago(when our planet was also 25% less green-btw) and have all things being equal, see how much rain would have been produced under those conditions?

6% less moisture in that atmosphere, if you just made a ton of assumptions and held all else constant......30 inches X .06 =1.8 inches of rain LESS from the old atmosphere. So Dorian, circa 1919 would have dumped 28 inches of rain in the Bahamas.            

2. What about the strength of the highest winds? Ocean temperatures need to be at least 79 deg. F to have the dynamics to sustain a hurricane.  Higher ocean heat content under ideal environmental conditions can/will cause stronger hurricanes. Hurricane models disagree on this but many of them predict an increase in the number of high end/major hurricanes. One can apply whatever study and metric or stat that you want to show whatever it is you want to show  on this(decadal variability based on cycles is by far the most important factor) but let's try to apply a  somewhat liberal/aggresive number to this hurricane for hypothetical example and say that it was 10% stronger because of the slightly warmer water from climate change. 

Taking it down 10% from 185 mph to around 167 mph. That actually is significant with regards to how much damage can be done. 

A key point needs to be made here with regards to the comparisons all over the place of Dorian to the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, which also had winds of 185 mph. Anybody that has any authentic knowledge about hurricanes knows this is a joke. There is absolutely no comparison other than the fact that small hurricane Dorian, because of the small size(small hurricane Wilma in Oct. 2005 was able to experience explosive/record growth in a short period of time from being so small) was able to obtain a speed of 185 mph, the same as the massive Labor Day Hurricane of 1935.

The question we should really be asking in the comparison,  is that if this was 1935, what top speed would we be assigning to Dorian? In 1935, we didn't have satellites. We didn't have hurricane hunter air planes flying into and taking measurements. We had ship reports well out to sea but clearly, they couldn't measure wind speeds other than the outside, fringes of major hurricanes. All we had were land reports.  In 1935, Dorian would have been recorded as, maybe a 160 mph hurricane at best?

3.  Surprisingly, most models show a DECREASE in the number of hurricanes. This may seem odd, since there will be more 79 deg, F water and the hurricane season will be longer. However, hurricanes don't just form because the water is hot. They are actually one of the ways that the planet balances the amount of heat between heat accumulating in the tropics, with the high sun angle vs the cooler higher latitudes. Mid latitude cyclones farther north do the same thing at higher latitudes.............they try to balance the heat disparity with latitude.

As it turns out, global warming/climate change is already doing some of that work for the atmosphere because it warms the coldest places, especially during the coldest times of year the most(note the melting of Arctic SEA ice). Because of this, there is less need for hurricanes to exhaust excessive heat in the tropics because the meridional temperature gradient is weaker/less. This is the same reason for why violent tornadoes have plunged. They peaked during the 1970's BECAUSE OF global cooling that increased the meridional temperature gradient. 

As you can imagine my news room is loving this, "the track." What they don't remember is I said on the air most of the models were sending Dorian into the Gulf and hitting either the Florida or Alabama panhandle. That was what was being shown. The hate is getting old and is making me question what I do. If I had to be in the newsroom all the time, I couldn't do it. Not that Trump doesn't do dumb things, he does. But the hate for him is so blatant. 

Great points on the "climate crisis." Nobody gets it in the media, nobody. The Majority of all the new meteorologists and climatologists are being taught one way and not being taught to learn for themselves. Hell, that's everywhere. I was very angry with the AMS climate report last year that stated the two major hurricanes of 2017, especially Harvey, was a result of man made climate change. Do as you say, subtract 5% of the rain and the 61" in parts of Deep East Texas becomes 58". So you are telling me the flooding would have been much less with only 58" of rain, that's a bunch of you know what! 

As for the strength of hurricanes, i am a firm believe in using pressure and not wind as the true measurement for strength. I won't get into the whole pressure gradient for wind strength but if there would have been a strong area of high pressure over Georgia the day of the Labor Day Hurricane 1935 the winds would have been over 200MPH more than likely. When we start seeing more and more sub 900mb Atlantic storms at landfall then we can start saying the strongest ever. I guess I am in the minority when it comes to that. 

Thanks much Grant!

That means a lot coming from another operational meteorologist....especially broadcast meteorologist which was my career for over a decade.

I hope you didn’t mind me using your hurricane posts to prove the point. They are always top notch and very informative but I never thought that I would use them on a topic like this. Like I said previously, you and WxFollower/Larry shine brighter than me when it comes to tropical meteorology and we are extraordinarily fortunate to have you here.

On the hatred for Trump thing by the media and others.....before becoming moderator I didn’t follow politics real closely. Now I feel obligated to follow the latest and do extensive homework/research on everything to report the facts or correct somebody else’s manufactured facts. Its one thing doing that all the time with weather and fake  climate crisis which has been a huge labor of love. However some of the other nonsense is wearing me out and I may need to take a step back and just let it happen without constantly feeling the need to interject with defining facts.

Now they are calling it Sharpie-Gate!

Pretty funny really...............except for one thing!

We have a huge hurricane clobbering the coastal areas of SC/NC and the focus on this is taking away from that.

I'll  make another comment here:

No doubt the president drew in the extended cone with a Sharpie to reflect the reality of the forecasts that were given to him............because he knew they were given to him but isn't a meteorologist or hurricane scientist, like me with access to maps that I just showed you to prove his story on Alabama.

He is being disengenous about the sharpie part for sure.  But he is correct about Alabama being a legit target(high probability for that extended time frame based on strong agreement of the models) for Dorian in our forecasts for around a 5-6 day period

His story on this is the truth and based on the evidence that I just showed  because I'm a meteorologist. Non meteorologist, embellisher in chief Trump decided to use a sharpie to show the same thing that he knows happened since he doesn't have our weather maps.

Sharpie Gate   

. Edit...to be more clear on this, I should have made a reminder of the acknowledgement of trumps initial big mistake with the mention of Alabama, 3 days after Alabama was not at risk. This is about the period before that when it was at risk

I don't know what imaginary slander you're defending Trump from, but the basic, well documented, story is that he:
1) Cancelled a trip to Poland to deal with Dorian
2) Spent 2 days golfing

3) On Sunday, instead of asking somebody for an update, he sounded an alarm that showed he hadn't paid any attention since Thursday
4) Acted like a toddler when people laughed at him, instead of dealing with the hurricane now running up the coast, using maps from last Thursday to justify what he did on Sunday
5) Added the comedy of saying for the 5th consecutive Cat 5 hurricane that he'd never heard of a Cat 5 hurricane

This is just not up to the standards that we expect of anyone, much less the President of the United States.
Did you ever give out 3 day old forecasts as storm warnings?

Thanks very much  for the comments Patrick.

It's obvious that you are mad about Trump for things that have nothing to do with my thread/post. I already addressed # 5 here, which should have been #1 on the list because it happened first.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/38160/

My post only deals with facts about the hurricane threat to Alabama as a meteorologist. who has been tracking hurricane Dorian. I don't really care if he golfed or cancelled a vacation(and I agree with you , as I always have pointed out that his behavior and personality flaws cause him to act very unpresidential at times like this-his behavior is horrible). 

 I am just verifying his weather story with the facts/graphics/truth, including the fact that his weekend tweet was an old forecast(and no as a meteorologist, I would not have made a  huge mistake like this) and that he went in and used a sharpy to add to a previous map to adjust it to........not his manufactured facts as is being portrayed with the marker, but the facts that I just proved to you were REAL facts above)

Can you find an error in any of my meteorological  posts/facts?

We know with certainty as we always have that President Trump behaves childish and this is another example. I agree..........again. 

However, who knows that Dorian really did threaten Alabama as Trump claims in a very legit way for a 5-6 day period?

Nobody..............except him and people with meteorological knowledge(that was shared with him) like me.

I am just sharing the truth about Alabama and Dorian that the MSM is not telling. 

I'm in complete agreement with you on most of this stuff but my point, is that the entire narrative regarding this "That Trump is making up the fact that Dorian threatened Alabama" is an entirely false meteorological narrative. 

I'm not talking about narrative. With thousands of people talking, narrative can be whatever you want to see. I'm talking about standards.

If wxgrant went on the air Sunday warning about storms based on old forecasts, and not bothering to check the latest, he wouldn't have a job Monday.

That was in the Steve Martin movie, LA Story

Yes, I'm tired of having a president held to no standards at all.

The way to fix the weather part of this discussion is to never have a non meteorologist give out information on a storm and it's potential. During the briefing he received with the original graphic, the official NWS outlook for the center of Dorian was over Dothan Alabama on day 7. Now I can see in his press conference  he would repeat what he has been told, even old information. Everyone does this. Case in point. Two weeks ago the ensembles were shows a nice cool down for the Labor Day Holiday in my market. We started talking about it. We also keep up to date on the forecast and when the cooler air moved in earlier, we let everyone know. talked about it, forecast it, and said it would now heat up on Labor Day. But many people still remember hearing it would be cool and when it wasn't, we were wrong. It happens all the time with weather forecasting. Now this is not making an excuse for how Trump handled it, he should have said he was wrong and repeating old information. His ego will get in the way of smart decisions. But really, we are really making too much of this. This did not impact anyone. Everyone in Alabama who heard that could have taken responsibility for their own safety and find out the correct information. 

But again, the simple fix. When storms are in the forecast, NEVER have a press conference on a storm's path or strength. Defer that information to an expert. Maybe he learned from this mistake.  I would like to think so but I won't hold my breath. 

Grant just nailed the answer.

Anybody relaying information of this nature ought to have the proper training  or be involved intricately enough  in the process  to communicate timely, accurate and flawless information.

We see plenty of local and state level government people giving press conferences on evacuation and details of the warnings and information similar to what Trump was stating but they know what they are doing. That IS THEIR JOB.

This should not be one of the roles for a president. Not that I'm qualified to say that no president should do it ever but Trump has people that work for him to do this.

One can speculate all sorts of reasons why this president decided to take charge of something best left to experts.......maybe his ego was at stake after the previous 2 years of massive criticism on many occasions for incidents related to the major hurricanes, some of it petty just to attack him, some after he said dumb stuff but it's obviously not a good idea for us to rely on a president........any president for our meteorological information about a hurricane.

Like he always does, he used his method of self destruction........the twitter account!!!

But that was not what this thread was about. It was about whether Alabama was ever threatened by hurricane Dorian from a meteorological standpoint.

There is no better evidence than what was provided but I will add a couple of things.

 The media wants to limit the threat to 5 days out, which is how far out the official NHC forecasts go out. The real world fact is that our models, including the hurricane models(which have greatly improved in the last 20 years) go out 15 days. Late in that period is to be taken with a grain of salt. However, each situation is different on different storms  but I can tell you with absolute certainty, when we had a storm with as much potential as Dorian and many to most of the models were aiming it into the Gulf(including Alabama) where energy, oj, cotton and other interests are involved and the improved models were showing a major threat............several days beyond the "official" NHC 5 day cones that anybody who had access to information about where the hurricane would be after 5 days with an interest in many of the dozens of critical realms effected would obviously take the days after day 5 dead serious.

It would actually be absurd to think that the NHC briefings with Trump, all of them did not include the path after days 5. This is critical and the best information we have for a hurricane hitting in days 6-10.......and its useful.  You can assume with high confidence that they told him this.

Just read the posts in the hurricane thread. This was before Trumps mess up and this is not me changing anything. I even mentioned Alabama as the specific target in my update for the most widely followed model:

By metmike - Aug. 28, 2019, 12:29 p.m.            

      The just updated US model curves Dorian MUCH farther to the left/west!

In fact, an entirely different path.

Instead of going up the Coast, it tracks Dorian across S.GA to AL,

I'm an operational meteorologist that forecasts weather for a living and I say that Alabama was absolutely threatened by Hurricane Dorian by compelling model guidance during a period that was to be taken very serious. I don't just say it, the posts prove it with the actual model guidance and comments from our best tropical weather meteorologist and me documented above.

There's no point in debating the other stuff because I agree anyway and that is not what I'm taking issue with.

The narrative that Alabama was never threatened or that was never communicated to the president is 100% wrong.

Let me put it this way:

On Wednesday August 28th, when the GFS/US models shifted to a similar track as the European model and they were almost ALL aimed at or close to hitting Alabama(note my exact words on that day) ......but it was just after day 5, NONE of us, not one meteorologist on the planet thought "oh, its days 6 and 7, so there is no real threat unless its within the 5 day cone of the official NHC forecast that gets released to the public.

Of course there was a legit threat to Alabama that spiked the highest then but had existed for numerous days prior to that.

It  was  gone over the weekend but thats not what this thread is about. It's about the MSM insisting in every single article/report/story that there was never a threat to Alabama. This is fake news and its the ONLY news that people are getting unless they read this thread.

Criticize away at Trump for handling this poorly. Grant does it objectively and by hitting some key points but no need to be objective.  I am not defending any of his behavior..........just defending the meteorological facts.

Trump was 100% right about Alabama being threatened and his explanation about his understanding of  the threat AFTER he messed up, is exactly consistent with the briefings that he would have received up to Thursday of last week.

Trump, irked at Shep Smith, has now roped Fox News into his increasingly odd crusade to prove he was right about Dorian and Alabama

https://theweek.com/speedreads/863159/trump-irked-shep-smith-now-roped-fox-news-into-increasingly-odd-crusade-prove-right-about-dorian-alabama

            Donald J. Trump        ✔            @realDonaldTrump           

Just as I said, Alabama was originally projected to be hit. The Fake News denies it!

                   

                     Donald J. Trump        ✔            @realDonaldTrump         

I was with you all the way Alabama. The Fake News Media was not! https://twitter.com/AlabamaNG/status/1167439608638038018 …

                       AL National Guard                    @AlabamaNG            

#HurricaneDorian is projected to reach southern Alabama by the early part of the week. We are watching closely and #ready to act. Are you?

    

 

 

Fox News Host Sean Hannity: President Trump Was Right On Hurricane Dorian Alabama Path

https://deadline.com/2019/09/fox-news-host-sean-hannity-president-trump-was-right-on-hurricane-dorian-alabama-path-1202713541/

So Trump got somebody at the NHC or somebody that had access to retrieve maps that he was shown last week  that was similar to what I showed but only went out thru 5 days, mine went out farther and took the storm across the entire state of Alabama. His maps stop at day 5, so the hurricane is only just hitting Alabama but there's not denying these are official National Weather Service maps, and they do show that on day 5, Alabama is clearly in the potential path and if we added day 6/7, the storms potential path would cover most/all of AL, which is what the models that I showed indicated. And the area exactly coincided with the sharpie the president used.........actually the sharpie didn't go far enough and Trump UNDER covered the state Alabama.

But they are proof that Alabama was clearly in the cross hairs of the hurricane path on close to the majority  of model solutions and continued across AL on days 6-7. 

It's kind of funny that he would use a sharpie to draw what he remembers was reflected on these actual maps which had got ahold of yesterday to prove his case irrefutably. Pretty good memory and drawing.  Very bad idea. Very,  very bad idea(although a meteorologist could have gotten away with it because people would assume that the meteorologist knew what they were talking about.

So according to the MSM, this is roping Fox into believing his story...................no need for roping, just need eyes tht can see and this bullsheet:  "CNN also reports that Trump ordered homeland security adviser Rear Admiral Peter Brown to issue Thursday's 225-word statement affirming that Alabama was at one point at risk for tropical storm-force winds"

Maybe the orders went like this

Trump: Admiral Brown, I order you to tell the truth and show the actual maps that I was shown last week that have Dorian headed into Alabama.

45's a big fan of sharpies. ;~)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-reportedly-person-used-black-021915584.html

Copied from a comments section from an anonymous poster:

“The president of the United States said the hurricane was a danger to Alabama at a time when it clearly wasn’t… that’s the issue. The National Weather service had to issue a correction shortly after his comments to make it clear that Alabama was in no danger. And then the president obsessed over trying to prove that he was not wrong for *days* afterwards. And his network of supporters have to prop up this version of events for his fragile ego. And the whole thing is just really, really sad.”

Here’s a tweet from the NWS Birmingham office saying Trump was wrong:

 “Alabama will NOT see any impacts from #Dorian. We repeat, no impacts from Hurricane #Dorian will be felt across Alabama. The system will remain too far east.”

 That is from here:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSBirmingham/status/1168179647667814400

 Later, an anonymous person at NOAA threw the Birmingham NWS office under the bus with this:

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1170087457444061186/photo/1

 When you have conservative Republican normally Trump supporting meteorologists like James Spann, Joe Bastardi, and Ryan Maue all saying NOAA was wrong to criticize NWS Birmingham for correcting Trump’s misinformation, it is next to impossible to take Trump’s side on this:

1. James Spann, longtime conservative AL meteorologist:

“The tweet from NWS Birmingham was spot on and accurate. If they are coming after them, they might as well come after me. How in the world has it come to this?”

 That from here:  https://mobile.twitter.com/spann/status/1170089361834237955?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1170089361834237955&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2F2%2Ftwitter.min.html%231170089361834237955

2. Ryan Maue:

“Whoa!  Nothing like throwing your ‘Alabam’ NWS office under the bus.”

and

“There is nothing wrong with this Tweet from NWS Birmingham issued on Sept 1 after the President's erroneous information.”

and

“Here was the 12z September 1, 2019 ‘spaghetti plot’... Alabama was definitely outside of any threat cone.”

 All of this from Maue is from here:

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1170087457444061186?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1170087457444061186&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2F2%2Ftwitter.min.html%231170087457444061186

3. Joe Bastardi, strong Trump supporter and anti-AGW advocate: Trump had tweeted this:

“In the early days of the hurricane, when it was predicted that Dorian would go through Miami or West Palm Beach, even before it reached the Bahamas, certain models strongly suggested that Alabama & Georgia would be hit as it made its way through Florida & to the Gulf..”

Bastardi responded:

“STRONGLY SUGGEST  from what a week out?  Point  is you said this after all tracks had changed. I was on  

@marklevinshow

  Friday night saying this looked like it would slow and go up east of FLA and our forecast then reflected that,I dont understand why you would fight this battle”

Bastardi later said this:

“The President’s Dorian chart doesn’t work http://disq.us/t/3i2r0y3  Outline of why I disagree on President Trump on  Alabamaslamagate”

 These tweets from here:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

Also from Bastardi:

“The President’s Dorian chart doesn’t work”

https://www.cfact.org/2019/09/07/33857/#disqus_thread

 Here’s a video Bastardi put out today that addresses this issue at the start of it from 0:26 through 3:45 (please watch  all of this part)

https://www.weatherbell.com/video/saturday-summary-63?full

 I never thought I would see the day that Trump supporters Spann, Maue, and Bastardi would all speak out to take the side that Trump was wrong on something. Trump was wrong and should admit his being wrong. He should stop being a big baby. I haven’t and can never see myself supporting this egocentric narcissistic baby. I don’t care that I agree with some of his administration’s policies. He’s an absolute embarrassment and needs to lose in 2020. This is coming from someone who feels Reagan is by far the greatest POTUS of my lifetime.

Thanks Larry.........we missed you during this event!

Both Joe and Ryan  use older maps that came AFTER the models had curved the path farther right away from Alabama and after the 5 day period when Alabama was a legit target.........and closer to the time frame when Trump made his big mistake.

They must take that position because they make a living selling hurricane products to be used by the public and others. Trump made his mistake because he was using a "stale" forecast as Ryan put it at the top of this thread.

They can't possibly justify anything in any way, shape or form that featured the initial blunder like that. If they would show the maps that I did above, it would put a huge dent in their credibility from paying clients that are not Trump supporters. 

This is not a climate change position which they are free to express freely. They don't make a living on that. Timely and accurate hurricane forecasting  is their bread and butter. These are real time short term products and they can't appear to be supporting a mistake. 

I get paid ZERO for my forecasting and can show the products above, that if you notice, Bastardi shows .........for a later time frame when they had curved to the right of Alabama. Why didn't he show the maps that I did above?

I just gave the reason. He also uses it to promote his own forecasting of the event and his is a master of promoting himself and forecasts if you listen to him(but he delivers most of the time and is one of the best)

I agree with him strongly that this was a really dumb battle for Trump to pick(which he lost) when the fake climate crisis is a war being fought for the truth. Trump's credibility on weather/climate is being obliterated so that when he tells the rock solid truth on climate........nobody will believe him, especially since the MSM will all tell us that he's just lying again. 

I felt bad for using Grants maps to show the points when the models were targeting Alabama. As he was sharing them generously and not for this reason.

In retrospect, I should have contacted Grant privately to ask if it was ok. However, without those maps as evidence I would not have done more than a couple of comments.............because I wouldn't have had any proof to make the statements above.

I respect your opinion, especially on this topic and appreciate you points, which are all valid.

I can only ask."Is there anything that I stated above, with respect to the maps/spaghetti charts  that had so many solutions aimed at Alabama that was incorrect?

If so, I will re evaluate. 

Hey Mike,

 You’re welcome.

1. Joe did show spaghetti model runs from 8/28 in here:

https://www.cfact.org/2019/09/07/33857/#disqus_thread

2. The point is that Trump wouldn’t admit to his obvious mistake (part of a pattern for him) and instead wasted the valuable time he needed to do what he can as potus to help with the storm to defend his own blatant mistake. He even said he was avoiding a trip to Poland so he could devote his time for this purpose. Instead, he spends hours playing golf, which likely contributed to his being out of touch with the updates that took AL completely out of the risk that they had several days earlier. This mistake was not at all fake news. He brought this onto himself and has nobody else but himself to blame. He then carried on and on about defending his mistake instead of admitting the error and doing much more productive and beneficial tasks.

Thank Larry!

1, exactly, you are making the point in a way. Joe cherry picked the spaghetti maps that represent the first run that started curving the path awy from Alabama. Look at the solutions I provided for days before and one that was even after that aimed at Alabama. You know it’s there.

2. I have agreed 100% with this from the get go and stated it several times and will do it again.

3. Forget this is Trump and just tell me, did many to even most(at times) of the solutions based on the actual data and your expertise show alabama as a potential target, going back to the previous weekend?

If for some reason you were not engaged following Dorian at the time,please  just use the maps from Grant and my comments from the analysis at that time frame, when it was actually happening....not this after the fact stuff.

Just to make this clear. Whether trump messed up royal or not with his statement on the track of the hurricane when he stated it was threatening Alabama is not even debatable. I recognized that from the get go numerous times and will point out that this huge blunder was 1,000 time worse than everything else., which I thought we all agreed on that point from the get go.

This thread, however is entirely focused on the claim that Alabama was never threatened. Maybe I should have emphasized that even more.

I am not justifying that as an excuse for the presidents blunder or for him to use it as an excuse because it isn’t and he made it much worse by doing that. The response should have been to admit the blunder and go on.

I just realized now that it’s because of my verbiage in the title of this thread that you may be getting the impression that I am defending his initial blunder.

I am only challenging the MSM definitive declarations that AL was NEVER threatened.

Met Mike said: “I just realized now that it’s because of my verbiage in the title of this thread that you may be getting the impression that I am defending his initial blunder.”

——————————-

 Mike, yes, the thread title made me think you were saying Trump was correct from the start, which was confusing. I recommend you change the title, which I’ve done before for some of my threads.

 Yes, of course, earlier on some major models were taking Dorian into the Gulf and that included threats to AL, especially south obviously. The UKMET actually remained a far left outlier into the NE Gulf, which was not far from an AL threat even then. This was as late as about Friday, August 30 though by the time Trump made his erroneous statement even this model had corrected and had been east of FL.

 Regardless, this is irrelevant to the idea that Trump was as even you agree 100% wrong. It doesn’t matter that CNN and others hate him and always look to report on him in a negative light. Much of this is Trumps own fault for behaving like a crybaby constantly. Thus it is very easy to report on him negatively. He cares way more about himself thanks to his ego than what’s for the greater good. He’s not presidential whatsoever. Compare him to Reagan, who was never this way. I firmly believe that most supporters of him don’t like a lot about him but bite their lips due to tribalism, which I hate. Where is the outcry from the religious right against Trump? If Trump were a Democrat, there’s no freaking way they’d tolerate him for one second!!! Mike, would you at least acknowledge this? Actually, knowing what I’ve learned about you being a seemingly “good person” with a strong moral compass, I don’t know why you still support him just because you agree with many of his administration’s positions. By the way, I say his “administration’s” positions rather than his positions for a reason. He doesn’t have principles other than more power and money for himself. Do you not see this? Look at his past. He was a Democrat for many years. Trump’s “positions” change according to what’s going to give him more power. He needs to go ASAP. I’d much rather have Pence in there even though Pence is a principled conservative with true views to the right of me in some cases and to the right of Reagan quite possibly. But at least Pence seems like a highly moral person. I’d like him to modify some of his views but that’s beside the point.

Do you see a big difference between Trump and Pence morally speaking?

Thanks Larry, 

I continually get questioned for supporting Trumps agenda because of the man that represents it when I am a person that has devoted his life to environmentalism, helping other people and the truth as well as high moral standards and Trump the man is a despicable person.

The answer is that because I treat my voting the same way I do my science. I vote as a scientist.

Funny that you should mention Pence. I have thought a zillions times "wouldn't it be great if they would change places"  You bet the democrats have thought about this and if they really could impeach Trump, they would NOT do it for that reason. Their worst nightmare would be President Pence running in 2020  with the Trump agenda. Their gift will be Trump.........uniting them strongly for one objective "stop Trump" and they will stop Trump, I believe. For all the same reasons that you mention and I have stated dozens of times. When I defend an unfair attack by the MSN on Trump(he deserved to be attacked on this issure big time but attack him on the facts I say).......I am being biased.

Here's something from just yesterday:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/38452/

metmike: This will be seen as defending Trump by some but its  nothing more than objective truths. I stated this recently after being wrongly accused of bashing Obama(it never happened but people assume that anybody that defends Trump must also be an Obama hater because they can't connect with objectivity and open mindedness in todays world.

"I think that Obama has a good heart and was a gifted charismatic communicator. His policies on health care and other issues were sincerely intended to help the poor. He  promoted peace with the Muslim world. His position on gun violence/control also had the best interest in heart. He was very charitable with US assistance of  money/donations/resources to poor countries. "

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/38481/

I personally have a great dislike for Donald Trump, the man. If I could rank him as a human being on a scale of 1-10, he would be around a 2-3(keep in mind that rapists and pedophiles exist and he's not that low).

Why do I support his agenda and unfair attacks on him?

1. His policies/platform are not him.  I'm well aware that reputation and our relationship with other countries is big but the rest of the world is trying to screw us over royal with the climate accord(we commit many billions and cut fossil fuels to do nothing for the climate........which is a climate optimum anyway.)

2. When I read scientific papers/studies/research results, I would never care about the scientists that did the work. If their work has value/knowledge/understanding and represents truth, who cares about anything else. ............for me at least. Almost no people will vote for president with the mind of a scientist(too bad) They will vote because they like Trump(or don't hate him so much that they can see his agenda) or because they hate his guts and vote for the other person.

3. What almost nobody realizes right now is that the objective around the world and in the US is global socialism via the UN, I show the facts here: 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/38156/

It's coming, no matter what we do and Trump is the only thing in the way at the moment. pj, you can't connect with the extreme ideas of the dems but think about it, of all the ones running, how many represent the moderate dems of old(that I voted for and maybe you did too)?

Answer: ZERO

With that large number and all of them being extreme(by our standards) ....they have even forced Biden to morph far left because he knows that is the only way to win, because he knows that's where the Dem party is going. On what planet does anybody think that dems will suddenly become more moderate? With ever year that goes by, it will be the complete opposite........more extreme because the younger generation has been indoctrinated with this belief system. Us older people, like every other time in history with whatever ideas we have/had will be replaced and we are just getting a glimpse of what is to come with the new generation based on the Dems running right now.

Larry,

Your comments and our conversation helped me to realize that I should have had a better title to this thread. It's definitely  misleading. I have added this to the first page.

Edit: I Should have made it more clear on this first page that Trumps initial blunder was inexcusable and just because an old forecast had Alabama in it, no way makes it ok. This thread is entirely to challenge the declaration that Alabama was never legitimately threatened. It was for numerous days. A more appropriate title would have been: "Alabama really was threatened"