Pretty bullish report. MFG Added 54k. GM strike slammed it last month, so this is probably reaction to that.
Should reflect nicely in equities.
https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=498803&cust=us&year=2019&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top
and from the look of it many, many of those jobs are not what you would call low wage, starter type, low education/experience....all good signs for Trumpy bear.
Yep, "It's the economy, stupid." It applied in 1992 and it still applies. Trump's biggest ally. This impeachment would likely not matter.
Polling data indicates Trump's job approval is higher now than it was at the start of the impeachment inquiry. Whether the dems attempts have aided in that improvement is debatable, but they certainly haven't hurt.
I think many of the moderates have grown weary of the nonstop attacks. But we are now perilously close to NTR, so I will leave it at that.
Job Creation since 2008
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
| JAN | FEB | MAR | APR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AUG | SEP | OCT | NOV | DEC | ||
| 2008 | 8.00 | (81.00) | (55.00) | (229.00) | (184.00) | (154.00) | (213.00) | (277.00) | (443.00) | (475.00) | (759.00) | (707.00) | (3,569.00) |
| 2009 | (787.00) | (704.00) | (802.00) | (704.00) | (354.00) | (469.00) | (342.00) | (196.00) | (229.00) | (209.00) | 12.00 | (277.00) | (5,061.00) |
| 2010 | 18.00 | (73.00) | 193.00 | 221.00 | 522.00 | (140.00) | (78.00) | (16.00) | (63.00) | 267.00 | 129.00 | 73.00 | 1,053.00 |
| 2011 | 44.00 | 182.00 | 254.00 | 323.00 | 81.00 | 234.00 | 72.00 | 112.00 | 233.00 | 209.00 | 145.00 | 201.00 | 2,090.00 |
| 2012 | 348.00 | 233.00 | 264.00 | 72.00 | 117.00 | 68.00 | 156.00 | 173.00 | 194.00 | 153.00 | 130.00 | 243.00 | 2,151.00 |
| 2013 | 207.00 | 265.00 | 156.00 | 179.00 | 240.00 | 158.00 | 111.00 | 260.00 | 201.00 | 210.00 | 221.00 | 93.00 | 2,301.00 |
| 2014 | 174.00 | 182.00 | 261.00 | 311.00 | 252.00 | 306.00 | 196.00 | 226.00 | 284.00 | 255.00 | 307.00 | 251.00 | 3,005.00 |
| 2015 | 211.00 | 267.00 | 78.00 | 282.00 | 326.00 | 191.00 | 256.00 | 164.00 | 88.00 | 351.00 | 264.00 | 234.00 | 2,712.00 |
| 2016 | 103.00 | 257.00 | 235.00 | 174.00 | 34.00 | 285.00 | 325.00 | 175.00 | 264.00 | 140.00 | 172.00 | 180.00 | 2,344.00 |
| 2017 | 259.00 | 200.00 | 73.00 | 175.00 | 155.00 | 239.00 | 190.00 | 221.00 | 14.00 | 271.00 | 216.00 | 175.00 | 2,188.00 |
| 2018 | 171.00 | 330.00 | 182.00 | 196.00 | 270.00 | 262.00 | 178.00 | 282.00 | 108.00 | 277.00 | 196.00 | 222.00 | 2,674.00 |
| 2019 | 312.00 | 56.00 | 153.00 | 216.00 | 62.00 | 178.00 | 166.00 | 219.00 | 193.00 | 156.00 | 266.00 | 1,977.00 | |
| 1,068 | 1,114 | 992 | 1,216 | 1,521 | 1,158 | 1,017 | 1,343 | 844 | 1,605 | 1,299 | 688 |
Way to look for the cloud in the silver lining Cliff.
There are approximately 3.5 million truck drivers employed in the US in an industry that employs about 8.1 million. Per your article, the numbers increased by 700 in October and then were reduced by 1000 in November for a net loss of 300, or roughly 1 in 27,000. The total loss for November when compared to the net gain of 266,000 is 1 in 266.
Yeah, better head for the hills. We're obviously doomed.
Tim,
Almost all of cliff's posts for many months are Trump bashing posts.
When he does make a rare post on the economy, that too is intended to bash Trump. In cliff's world, we are having a severe recession/depression right now............and it's Trumps fault.
Here's the proof:
Last 3 months of cliff's economy related posts(negative ones first):
Freightliner layoffs
Started by cliff-e - Oct. 7, 2019, 8:55 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/40535/
"Everything moves via truck whether it's bought thru the keyboard or "brick and mortar" businesses. Less freight means less demand for trucks and parts etc. So goes the national economy.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Deere layoffs
Started by cliff-e - Oct. 2, 2019, 7:29 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/40203/
"So goes the rural economy."
+++++++++++++++++++++++
By cliff-e - Oct. 12, 2019, 9 p.m.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
By cliff-e - Sept. 8, 2019, 5:30 p.
http://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201909/06/WS5d719abfa310cf3e3556a03d.html
++++++++++++++++++++++++
Re: Employment Situation +130k
By cliff-e - Sept. 6, 2019, 12:29 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/38485/
True unemployment chart comparison. U-3,U-6 and "shadow stat." of 21.6%.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
cliff's positive posts on the economy:
-------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------
There hasn't been one yet.
Tim,
Your chart with monthly data going back to 2008 on job creation was one of the most awesome ever.
Thanks, sorry for sending your great thread off track earlier. I'll delete that stuff if anybody is offended.
I don't care about the polls. Even if they are in his favor. What I have grown to appreciate about Trump, is the fact that he is the first president in my lifetime, to actually accomplish his campaign promises. And market reactions have confirmed this.
While there will be those who have such disdain for trump, in spite of his successes, the facts and markets do not lie. And even they have prospered from his presidency. Whether they want to admit it or not.
Yes Mark
And I like to mention that Trump is by far the guy who has refrained from simply "kicking the can down the road"
more than anyone during my lifetime. Thats a shallow surface observation, Im sure ,but for the most part he tries to
make that a habit-for the good of ALL!
John
I deleted my 2 purely NTR posts in this thread but will not warn myself unless there are additional infractions (-:
http://www.yahoo.com/news/american-trucking-giant-slated-declare-014023461.html
Freight volumes down. If it don't sell it don't move.
Someone better tell the US Census Bureau that their numbers are all wrong. We're seeing robust sales accrss all categories, roughly 3.4% over year ago.
https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html
And the BEA is totally off on personal spending.
https://www.bea.gov/news/2018/personal-income-and-outlays-november-2018
job numbers look good.
but it is a strange divergence from the lousy shipping numbers.
UNP stock looks like it will be breaking out to the upside soon... the stock price does not seem to reflect the slump in shipping volumes.