KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, January 22, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 613.6)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +30.2%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 303.9)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +3.0%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1713.7)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +42.7%)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -3.0%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.8%)
8:30 AM ET. December CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.56)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -0.25)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)
9:00 AM ET. November U.S. Monthly House Price Index
10:00 AM ET. December Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 5.35M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous -1.7%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.7)
Median Price (USD) (previous 271300)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +5.4%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.1M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.2M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +6.8M)
Thursday, January 23, 2020
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 204K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -10K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1767000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -37K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. December Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (previous +0.0%)
Leading Index (previous 111.6)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3039B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -109B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 428.511M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.549M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 258.287M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +6.678M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 147.221M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +8.171M)
Refinery Usage (previous 92.2%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.042M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.309M)
11:00 AM ET. January Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous -7)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 12)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous -8)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 10)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, January 24, 2020
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 991.8K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 711.5K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 730.3K)
9:45 AM ET. January US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 52.5)
9:45 AM ET. January US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 52.2)
10:00 AM ET. December Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
11:30 AM ET. SEC Investor Advisory Committee Telephonic Meeting
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading as it extends the rally off last-October's low into uncharted territory. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's high into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8941.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 9237.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8941.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8621.54.
The March S&P 500 gapped up and was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-August's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3266.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3334.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3266.24. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3189.29.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off the January 9th low, January's high crossing at 159-19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 157-09 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 159-19. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 160-13. First support is January's low crossing at 155-05. Second support is November's low crossing at 155-00.
March T-notes was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off the January 9th low, January's high crossing at 130.060 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.294 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 130.060. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 130.175. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.294. Second support is December's low crossing at 127.290.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
March crude oil was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 56.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.11. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 65.40. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 57.79. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 56.00.
March heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, last-October's crossing at 177.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 194.17 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 194.17. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 196.44. First support is the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 181.92. Second support is October's low crossing at 177.48.
March unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's key reversal down. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 156.22 is the next possible downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 168.94 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 168.94. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 180.11. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 161.23. Second support is December's low crossing at 156.22.
March Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. The mid-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 1.611 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 2.204 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 2.204. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.263. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.826. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.611.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 98.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.30 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 97.49. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 98.05. First support is the January 16th low crossing at 96.81. Second support is December's low crossing at 96.02.
The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, November's low crossing at 110.61 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 112.13 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is December's high crossing at 112.93. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 114.20. First support is the December 6th low crossing at 111.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 110.61.
The March British Pound was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to higher signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 1.3141 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes below December's low crossing at 1.2940 would open the door for additional weakness near-term and a possible test of the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870. First resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3312. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1.3548. First support is December's low crossing at 1.2940. Second support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870.
The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0343 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0461 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.0444. Second resistance the 87% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 1.0461. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0343. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0251.
The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 76.31 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 77.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 77.23. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 77.97. First support is the reaction low crossing at 76.31. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.03.
The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 0.0906 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0922 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0918. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0922. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.0909. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.0906.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February resumes this month's decline, the 20-day moving average crossing at $1542.20 is the next downside target. If February resumes the rally off November's low, monthly resistance crossing at $1616.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $1613.30. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1616.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1542.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1501.00.
March silver was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $17.409 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $18.185 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is January's highcrossing at $18.895. Second resistance is the September 24th high crossing at $18.930. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $17.409. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $16.935.
March copper was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $275.28 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-September-December crossing at $289.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $288.60. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at $287.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $275.28. Second support is December's low crossing at $262.05.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at $3.92 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the December-January trading range while renewing the rally off December's low. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at $4.00 is the next upside target. If March renews last-Thursday's decline, December's low crossing at $3.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $3.92. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $3.75 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.
March wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at $5.92 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.60 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at $5.92 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at $6.13 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.60 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.40.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.05 3/4-cents at $5.00.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.82 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $5.04 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.08. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.82. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.56.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight and is renewing the rally off November's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at $5.71 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.53 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $5.67 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $5.71 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.53 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.34 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's decline, the December 12th low crossing at $9.02 1/2. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.40 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.40. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $9.61. First support is the overnight low crossing at $9.14 1/2. Second support is the December 12th low crossing at $9.02 1/2.
March soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the December-January trading range. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Tuesday's decline, the December 12th low crossing at $297.40 is the next downside target. Closes above December's high crossing at $307.90 would renew the rally off December's low. First resistance is December's high crossing at 307.90. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $312.70. First support is the December 12th low crossing at $297.40. Second support is December's low crossing at $296.20.
March soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.75 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 34.24 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 35.67. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 35.79. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.75. Second support is the December 11th low crossing at 31.62.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed down $0.33 at $67.35.
February hogs closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $69.41 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If February extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at $65.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $72.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 74.10. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $65.57. Second support is December's low crossing at $65.40.
February cattle closed up $0.03 at $126.38.
February cattle closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it extends the November-January trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below is January's low crossing at $124.55 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extended the rally off September's low, weekly resistance crossing at $130.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $127.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $130.45. First support is January's low crossing at $124.55. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $123.30.
March Feeder cattle closed down $0.33-cents at $144.68.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below January's low crossing at $141.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at $149.81 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $147.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018 April-September decline crossing at $149.81. First support is January's low crossing at $141.33. Second support is November's low crossing at $138.62.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 10.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.21 would confirm that a low has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, last-May's high crossing at 28.36 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, last-February's high crossing at 14.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.79 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.
March cotton closed sharply lower on Tuesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.78 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.40 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 74.04 is the next upside target.