KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, January 29, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 606.2)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +30.2%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 297.8)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +3.0%)
Refinance Idx (previous 2401.5)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -1.8%)
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Economic Indicators Report
10:00 AM ET. December Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 108.5)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected +1.0%; previous +1.2%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +7.4%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 428.106M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.405M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 260.032M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.745M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 146.036M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.185M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.5%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.504M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +2.462M)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 1.75)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 1.50)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 10)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 2.25)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
Thursday, January 30, 2020 \
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1008.9K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 910.7K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 742K)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Advance estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +2.1%; previous +2.1%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +1.8%; previous +1.8%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.4%)
Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous +2.1%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.1%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +3.2%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 218K; previous 211K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +6K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1731000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -37K)
9:30 AM ET. Federal Reserve Board of Governors open meeting
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter U.S. Housing Vacancies
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2947B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -92B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, January 31, 2020
8:30 AM ET. December Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.5%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.5%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.6%; previous +1.6%)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Employment Cost Index
ECI, Q/Q% (expected +0.7%; previous +0.7%)
ECI, Y/Y% (previous +2.8%)
9:45 AM ET. January ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 48.5; previous 48.9)
10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 99.1; previous 99.3)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 88.9)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.3%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.2%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 115.5)
3:00 PM ET. January Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M%
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading as fears over the spread of the Coronvirus are being raised in earnings calls throughout different sectors as Wall Street looks for any fallout from the virus spreading in and outside of China as Tesla, McDonald’s and Boeing will be highlight on what could be the busiest single day of the earnings season. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Friday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 8704.33 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off October's high into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 9287.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Monday's low crossing at 8925.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8704.33.
The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's correction off Monday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signals that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-week's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3208.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3299.88 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3335.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3237.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3208.05.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was higher overnight leaving Tuesday's key reversal down unconfirmed at this time. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off the January 9th low, October's high crossing at 164-09 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 162-25. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 164-09. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 159-20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-13.
March T-notes was higher overnight leaving Tuesday's key reversal down unconfirmed. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 132.025 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.135 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 131.060. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.025. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 129.284. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.135.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
March crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, October's low crossing at 50.18 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 56.06 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 56.06. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.25. First support is the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 52.17. Second support is October's low crossing at 50.18.
March heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the June 2017 low crossing at 156.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 179.15 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 179.15. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 188.69. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 165.98. Second support is the June 2017 low crossing at 156.49.
March unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 158.71 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If March extends the decline off January's high, August's low crossing at 142.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 158.71. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 164.40. First support is Monday's low crossing at 144.49. Second support is August's low crossing at 142.08.
March Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The low-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 1.611 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.039 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.938. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.039. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.826. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.611.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 98.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.18 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 97.98. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 98.05. First support is the January 16th low crossing at 96.81. Second support is December's low crossing at 96.02.
The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, October's low crossing at 110.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.49 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the January 16th high crossing at 112.13. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 112.93. First support is the overnight low crossing at 110.26. Second support is October's low crossing at 110.14.
The March British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below December's low crossing at 1.2940 would open the door for additional weakness near-term and a possible test of the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 1.3198 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3312. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1.3548. First support is December's low crossing at 1.2940. Second support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870.
The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0268 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0357 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0357. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0444. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0286. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0268.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the January 6th low crossing at 75.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.52 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.24. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.52. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 75.72. Second support is the December 6th low crossing at 75.40.
The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0921 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 0.0906 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0921. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0932. First support is January's low crossing at 0.0909. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.0906.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $1619.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80 are needed to renew the decline off January's high. First resistance is January's high crossing at $1619.60. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1687.00. First support is the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1517.10.
March silver was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high,the January 18th low crossing at $16.935 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $18.375 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $18.375. Second resistance is January's highcrossing at $18.895. First support is the overnight low crossing at $17.280. Second support is the January 18th low crossing at $16.935.
March copper was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at $254.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $275.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $275.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $277.19. First support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at $259.02. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at $254.28.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight. Thelow-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at $4.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $3.94. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.
March wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high.The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.65 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at $6.13 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at $5.92 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at $6.13 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.65 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.45 1/2.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.04 1/2-cent at $4.82.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it extends last-week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.61 1/4 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.08 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $5.04 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.08. First support is the January 6th low crossing at $4.69 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.61 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.35 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.52 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.52 1/4. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $5.67 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.35 1/2. Second support is the December 20th low crossing at $5.32 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans was higher overnight filling Monday's gap crossing at 9.00 3/4 as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at $8.82 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.28 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.11 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.28 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $8.88 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $8.82 1/2.
March soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, monthly support crossing at $288.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $302.00 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 298.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $300.80. First support is Monday's low crossing at $295.20. Second support is monthly support crossing at $288.30.
March soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's short covering rally. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 32.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 29.54 is the next likely downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 32.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.54. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 30.62. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 29.54.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
February hogs closed up $0.28 at $66.23.
February hogs closed higher on Tuesday as it filled Monday's gap. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, last-August's low crossing at $63.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $68.68 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at $72.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 74.10. First support is Monday's low crossing at $65.23. Second support is last-August's low crossing at $63.67.
February cattle closed down $0.10 at $122.15.
February cattle closed lower on Tuesday as it extends Monday's downside breakout of the November-January trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends Monday's trading range breakout, the 38% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $119.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $125.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $127.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $130.45. First support is today's low crossing at $122.10. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $119.22.
March Feeder cattle closed up $0.23-cents at $135.40.
March Feeder cattle closed slightly higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $134.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $143.61 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $143.61. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $147.75. First support is today's low crossing at $134.97. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $134.33.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 10.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.70 would confirm that a low has been posted.
March cocoa closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off Wednesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 29.43 is the next upside target.
March sugar posted a key reversal up on Tuesday as it rebounded off the 20-day moving average. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional gains. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.04 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's low, last-January's high crossing at 16.25 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength on Wednesday. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.78 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 74.04 is the next upside target.