KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, January 30, 2020 \
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1008.9K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 910.7K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 742K)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Advance estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +2.1%; previous +2.1%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +1.8%; previous +1.8%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.4%)
Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous +2.1%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.1%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +3.2%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 218K; previous 211K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +6K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1731000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -37K)
9:30 AM ET. Federal Reserve Board of Governors open meeting
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter U.S. Housing Vacancies
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2947B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -92B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, January 31, 2020
8:30 AM ET. December Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.5%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.5%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.6%; previous +1.6%)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Employment Cost Index
ECI, Q/Q% (expected +0.7%; previous +0.7%)
ECI, Y/Y% (previous +2.8%)
9:45 AM ET. January ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 48.5; previous 48.9)
10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 99.1; previous 99.3)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 88.9)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.3%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.2%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 115.5)
3:00 PM ET. January Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M%
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading along with declines in other global markets as the coronavirus death toll and infections climbed, alongside concerns over how the outbreak could hurt the Chinese economy. Those concerns are overshadowing friendly earnings reports from Tesla Inc. and Microsoft Corp. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off last-Friday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 8717.26 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off October's high into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 9287.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Monday's low crossing at 8925.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8717.26.
The March S&P 500 was lower overnight and appears poised to renew the decline off last-Friday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signals that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Friday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3210.41 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3294.35 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3335.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3237.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3210.41.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, October's high crossing at 164-09 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high high crossing at 162-25. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 164-09. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 160-05. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-26.
March T-notes was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 132.025 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.189 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 131.120. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.025. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 130.036. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.189.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
March crude oil was lower overnight as it renewed the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, October's low crossing at 50.18 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 55.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 55.37. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.76. First support is the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 52.17. Second support is October's low crossing at 50.18.
March heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the June 2017 low crossing at 156.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 176.62 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 176.62. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 186.77. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 165.98. Second support is the June 2017 low crossing at 156.49.
March unleaded gas was lower overnight after a two-day short covering rally off Monday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 157.21 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If March renews the decline off January's high, August's low crossing at 142.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 157.21. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 163.41. First support is Monday's low crossing at 144.49. Second support is August's low crossing at 142.08.
March Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The low-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 1.611 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.023 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.913. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.023. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.826. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.611.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the October 8th high crossing at 98.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.25 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is November's high crossing at 98.05. Second resistance is the October 8th high crossing at 98.46. First support is the January 16th low crossing at 96.81. Second support is December's low crossing at 96.02.
The March Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, October's low crossing at 110.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.39 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the January 16th high crossing at 112.13. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 112.93. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 110.24. Second support is October's low crossing at 110.14.
The March British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 1.3198 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below December's low crossing at 1.2940 would open the door for additional weakness near-term and a possible test of the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870. First resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3312. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1.3548. First support is December's low crossing at 1.2940. Second support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870.
The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0271 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0352 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0352. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0444. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.0272. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0271.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off December's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the January 6th low crossing at 75.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.45 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.12. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.45. First support is the overnight low crossing at 75.61. Second support is the December 6th low crossing at 75.40.
The March Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0921 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 0.0906 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0921. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0932. First support is January's low crossing at 0.0909. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.0906.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $1619.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80 are needed to renew the decline off January's high. First resistance is January's high crossing at $1619.60. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1687.00. First support is the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1519.30.
March silver was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the January 18th low crossing at $16.935 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $18.375 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $18.375. Second resistance is January's highcrossing at $18.895. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $17.280. Second support is the January 18th low crossing at $16.935.
March copper was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, September's low crossing at $249.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $274.74 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $274.74. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $275.80. First support is the overnight low crossing at $251.60. Second support is September's low crossing at $249.35.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was lower overnight as it extends the December-January trading range. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at $4.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $3.94. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.
March wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high.The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.46 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.70 3/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at $5.92 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at $6.13 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at $5.56 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.46 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.10-cents at $4.72.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extends last-week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.62 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.88 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $5.04 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at $5.08. First support is the January 6th low crossing at $4.69 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.62 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.35 3/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.51 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.51. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.67 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.35 3/4. Second support is the December 20th low crossing at $5.32 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at $8.82 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.25 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.07. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.25. First support is Monday's low crossing at $8.88 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $8.82 1/2.
March soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, monthly support crossing at $288.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $301.70 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 298.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $300.20. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $295.10. Second support is monthly support crossing at $288.30.
March soybean oil was lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 29.54 is the next likely downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 32.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 32.23. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.34. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 30.62. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 29.54.