"Prices are now in the upper 5% of the historical price range for the 2018 crop. Equally notable, prices for 2019 are in the upper 10% of the historical price range, and 2020 prices are in the upper 25% of the historical price range. Thus, growers have been presented an opportunity for long term price risk management that is seldom seen. This presents a very rare opportunity.
Demand remains the underlying factor supporting the market. U.S. exports were an eye-popping 586,800 RB on the week, with sales only a net of 6,800 RB of upland for the current year, another 106,800 RB of upland for 2018-19 and 12,200 RB of Pima. Yet, actual shipments were near 600,000 RB on the week.
Consequently, USDA should increase its export estimate in the upcoming June supply demand report. If USDA forecasts are true to form, then its export estimate will trail the actual shipment pace and underestimate the actual level of exports. Additionally, world production should be adjusted slightly lower, world consumption slightly higher and world carryover down at least 1.5 million bales. It should be noted that the shipment pace is well above the USDA estimate."