KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, February 27, 2020
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter 2nd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +2.1%; previous +2.1%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +1.4%; previous +1.4%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous -1.2%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.6%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +3.2%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.3%)
Consumer Spending, Q/Q% (previous +1.8%)
8:30 AM ET. January Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected -1.5%; previous +2.4%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -2.5%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.9%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.4%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 214K; previous 210K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +4K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1726000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +25K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1250.2K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 497.7K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 406.4K)
9:30 AM ET. SEC Investor Advisory Committee Quarterly Meeting
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. January Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 103.2)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected +2.0%; previous -4.9%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +4.6%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2343B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -151B)
11:00 AM ET. February Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous -4)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 23)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous -1)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 14)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
N/A FRB Atlanta Banking Outlook Conference
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The March NASDAQ 100 closed slightly lower for the third day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at 8628.53. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9416.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 9411.50. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 9763.00.First support is today's low crossing at 8709.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at 8628.53.
The March S&P 500 closed lower for the third day in a row on Wednesday as it extended the decline off last week's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 2996.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3309.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 3333.50. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 3393.00. First support is today's low crossing at 3113.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 2996.99.
The Dow closed lower for the third day in a row on Wednesday as it extends this week's huge sell off. The low-range close that sets the stage for a steady to lower opening is possible when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 26,571.10. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 28,892.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 28,892.70. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 29,535.98. First support is today's low crossing at 26,890.97. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 26,571.10.
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March T-bonds closed up 12/32's at 167-19.
March T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at 172-04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 163-12 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 168-09. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 172-04. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 164-10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 163-12.
March T-notes closed up 76-pts. at 133.045.
March T-notes closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, monthly resistance crossing at 134.075 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.116 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 133.130. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 134.075. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.116. Second support is the February 6th low crossing at 130.070.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil closed lower for the fifth-day in a row on Wednesday and renewed the decline off January's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this month's decline, the December-2018 low crossing at $45.92 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $51.96 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $54.66. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $56.04 is the next upside target.First support is today's low crossing at $48.30. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at $45.92.
April heating oil closed sharply lower for the fifth-day in a row on Wednesday as it extended the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at $145.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $164.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the January 29th high crossing at $173.55.Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $181.55. First support is today's low crossing at $148.09. Second support is weekly support crossing at $145.80.
April unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Wednesday and renewed the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the December-2018 low crossing at 150.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 171.58 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 178.74. Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at 186.74. First support is today's low crossing at 155.04. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 150.00.
April Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, February's low crossing at 1.788 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.014 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.016. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2.196. First support is the February 14th low crossing at 1.795. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.788.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 99.82. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.68. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.72.
The March Euro closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rebound off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 109.41 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, monthly support crossing at 106.55 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 109.41. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.77. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 107.93. Second support is monthly support crossing at 106.55.
The March British Pound closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at 1.2801 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3066 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the February 13th high crossing at 1.3080. Second resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3225. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.2857. Second support isthe 50% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at 1.2801.
The March Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Thursday's low.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0268 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1.0156 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0268. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0303. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0170. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1.0156.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, last-September's low crossing at 74.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.40 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 75.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.00. First support is today's low crossing at 74.99. Second support is last-September's low crossing at 74.90.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0911 tempers the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 0.0881 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0911. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0911. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing 0.0892. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.0881.
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April gold closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1595.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at $1704.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $1691.70. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $1704.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1595.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average at $1562.00.
March silver closed lower on Wednesday as it extended Tuesday's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average at 17.822 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews this month's rally, the September 24th high crossing at 18.930 is the next upside target.First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 18.920. Second resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.930. First support is the 50-day moving average at 17.822. Second support is the February low crossing at 17.435.
March copper closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 234.31 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 270.59 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 263.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 270.59. First support is the February 10th low crossing at 254.00. Second support is February's low crossing at 248.75.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed down $0.02 1/4-cents at 3.70 1/4.
March corn closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below December's low crossing at $3.71 opens the door for a possible test of September's low crossing at $3.65 3/4. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.83 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.83 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $3.94. First support is today's low crossing at $3.68 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at $3.65 3/4.
March wheat closed up $0.01 1/4-cents at $5.40 1/4.
March wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $5.25 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.56 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $5.70 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.92 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $5.30 3/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $5.25 1/2.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.02 3/4-cents at $4.52 1/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.38 3/4. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.74 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $5.86 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.04 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $4.48. Second support isthe 62% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.38 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.00 3/4-cents at $5.15 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed fractionally lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 5.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.41 1/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.67 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.12 1/2. Second support is November's low crossing at 5.06.
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March soybeans closed up $0.01 1/2-cents at $8.80 1/2.
March soybeans closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Monday's decline, February's low crossing at $8.68 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $9.02 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the January 29th high crossing at $9.03. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.14. First support is February's low crossing at $8.68 3/4. Second support is last-May's low crossing at $8.41 1/2.
March soybean meal closed up $4.60 at $291.10.
March soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $295.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $295.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $297.40. First support is Monday's low crossing at $284.80. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.
March soybean oil closed down 15-pts. at 29.08.
March soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the May-January low crossing at 28.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.47 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.47. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.48. First support is today's low crossing at 28.89. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-January low crossing at 28.55.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $0.48 at $65.15.
April hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends Monday's decline, the February 13th low crossing at $62.92 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $68.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.34. First support is the February 13th low crossing at $62.92. Second support is February's low crossing at $61.00.
April cattle closed down $0.60 at $112.35.
April cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off December's high, last-September's low crossing at $109.37 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at $116.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at $116.95. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.61. First support is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $111.86. Second support is last-September's low crossing at $109.37.
March Feeder cattle closed up $1.10-cents at $134.08.
March Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Thursday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.07 are needed to renew the rally off February's low. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.07. Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at $145.18. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $131.77. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.91 is the next downside target. If May renews this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 30.14 is the next upside target.
May sugar closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.70 confirming that a top has been posted. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.20 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off October's low, last-January's high crossing at 16.05 is the next upside target.
May cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 64.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.60 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.