I just looked a bit further

Crude did print a 45

 Now fess up who ever bet me on that price

Richard???

          https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47760/

      Re: Oil Rallies On Small Crude Inventory Build            

                By wglassfo - Feb. 21, 2020, 5:13 a.m.            

I am going to be the contraian view point and say oil will drop into 40 perhaps as low as high 30

We know china is not up to speed and will not for some time

The supply chain has not hit the west but it will

Oil demand means cars, trucks air planes all kinds of transportation to  and from china and within china will not restart for some time, months more likely unless workers are ordered back to work Airplanes flying into and out of china may not resume for a normal schedule for a full yr

Oil is also a major factor in turning raw material into steel,  all sorts of building materials

With china demand at 20 % of world demand nobody can expect china to just resume manufacturing and travel in a short time

Oil demand will fall off a cliff

Time will tell but that is MHO

      +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++                                

                Re: Re: Oil Rallies On Small Crude Inventory Build            

                By Richard - Feb. 21, 2020, 7:11 a.m.            

Without putting a time frame on it, I'll bet you $1 that we trade Over $100 before trading BELOW $45.

                                    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                Re: Oil Rallies On Small Crude Inventory Build            

                By wglassfo - Feb. 21, 2020, 11:04 p.m.            

I will take that bet of 1 dollar CAD

I mean what is a patriot unless I bet CAD

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                         The Bet is on for all of MarketForum to see.            

                By Richard - Feb. 23, 2020, 11:07 p.m.            

$1 CAD above $100.00 before below $45.00

Wayne,

You are close  but my charts show the low for oil so far was $45.88 at 9:36 am this morning.

Last price was 46.78.

Alright guys,now thats good old fashion fun.

Too funny, I just logged in to revisit this very topic.  It was Richard.  I came to ask if he was nervous yet.  

I think most of us would agree, $45 is pretty cheap, do you buy?  

Remember folks I said recession or depression

Well the stk market dropped the fastest since the last depression

I say don't buy

Who needs oil when folks are going to be afraid to go to work

Actually panic is our worst enemy which will lead to a severe recession if not worse

Hawaii has already paniced with no reason. They have one case of infection but all of a sudden panic set in and the stores are empty of toilet paper, hand towels, house hold cleaners, dry good foods, canned foods etc

In other words they have bought what they think they need for a quarantine, with no reason for a panic

I suspect fear or panic will be our biggest enemy

Hawaii depends on tourism. How many folks do you think will be vacationing in Hawaii?/

What will happen to there economy. It doesn't take a genius to know their economy will be in shambles

How much of the rest of the country re-acts exactly like Hawaii

So:

Don't you dare buy oil. You could sell and make a few dollars And this is why

Oil useage will drop as factories world wide shut down, travel drops off the cliff. Do you know how much jet fuel is used in a normal economy. Are you planning any personal plane trips/vacations on a plane to Iran, Italy/Hawaii or even to California Disney World where there are crowds of people??? etc.  Co's are ordering employees to not travel on business. What about car travel??? when Co's are encouraging stay at home and work, if possible

The world is shutting down and we have not seen the worst of it as of yet

Is it an R or a D

I don't know but don't bet on anything, maybe neither one but my bet is an R

What happens to your food supply if the farmer is feeling sick Does he continue and take responsibility for infecting how many other people

What about the fuel delivery person, the truck driver that brings food to the city. What about the person who has a sore throat but recovers, with out even seeing a doctor. As in doctor visits cost money, when it is just a sore throat for a few days and then nothing but good health.. How many folks could that person infect??? What happens when some body in your church community gets sick and has to go to the hospital. Notice how many churches are full of old people and family units. Would you go to that church next week

Get the idea of what is possible

Now I am not saying this will happen

I am  saying something for sure will happen, and we haven't seen it yet. Let's hope it isn't a panic as we see with our own eyes, in Hawaii

Let's hope it is not a bad non-essential panic. 

Yeaaaa…...I don't know.  Some cheap out of the money calls might be in order.  ESPECIALLY, if crude breaches $40.  That will hit American oil companies hard.  

CLJ has been down to 45.69 this evening. 

Currently at 45.86.

Looking excellent for Wayne to win the bet!

That was me. We did not break $45.00 yet. we are close and lets see what happens. If you really need me to send you a $1 I can do that, so that you are not upset, but we will break $100.00 this year.  Just give this some time and bookmark this page.

I show a $44.95 as the low this morning.

you win. I owe a $1 to you

Hey Richard

I will give you a chance you can't refuse

Double or nothing crude breaks 42 this yr

Saudi Arabia Aims For Additional Cuts As Oil Plunges Below $50

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-Aims-For-Additional-Cuts-As-Oil-Plunges-Below-50.html?utm_source=browser&utm_medium=push_notification&utm_campaign=vwo_notification_1582925613&_p_c=1

Double or nothing, crude breaks $100.00 before $42.00. If neither happens within 12 months, bet is cancelled.

Oil Prices Set For Worst Weekly Plunge In Four Years

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Set-For-Worst-Weekly-Plunge-In-Four-Years.html?utm_source=browser&utm_medium=push_notification&utm_campaign=vwo_notification_1582929556&_p_c=1

Your on Richard

I will take the bet

Exactly as you posted

We are getting a flood of offers from air lines for travel, advertising on our computer.

This just came on the computer

A travel agency just offered us Business Class air line tickets to Australia

Regular price is 12,000.00 plus, round trip 1 person

Our offer was 2795.00 round trip for 1 person to Australia. Same business Class tickets

Did not say where departure was from. They want us to call and then quote am exact price from our choice of departure airport, but that would not affect the price very much from where we live. Detroit or Toronto are both major air line hubs., which we use depending on price/ parking etc. Heck one yr we used Hamilton air port. Another yr was London, Ontario. But mostly Detroit or Toronto.

However, that gives you an idea of how badly air fare and travel volume has fallen, to be cutting price that much

Golly would a full air plane at that price even cover over head cost

I suppose they have to pay the lease no matter if the plane is in the air or on the ground

I am sure if you call an air line or travel agency there are some really good rates to travel, 

Just thought I would pass along the air lines cheap ticket prices

Business class is almost as good as 1st class, especially on a long haul like that

I wonder what 1st clas price might be

Unfortunately we have to stay home and be ready to get to work when the land is fit

My son and grand son do all the preparation of machinery in the work shop. I just run for parts.

Golly, that price is tempting to go

If you had the time would you go. All you have to do is make a telephone call

Never get a chance like that again

Problem is, I think, the same air from the back of the plane gets circulated over the entire cabin space

What if there is a carrier on board. There are so many things people don't know and the unknown is a big factor in what we do.

Richard

See why there is no demand for oil or oil products

People, in the entire world, are afraid to do a lot of things we used to do.

Most of those things had fossil fuel in the equation some place.

I owe you another dollar. Ouch. that is now $2 for you.

Energies got blistered today, there is no other way to describe it.  But as mentioned before, we have not seen the backing up of supplies in the US.  Does Europe have an EIA equivalent that might be showing a build up of oil products?

Hi Richard

I am really trying to help you out of a problem

Double or nothing oil prints 40 before printing 100

There is a post of mine above that oil would drop to 40, possibly high 30

I will stick to 40 for now

I am losing more on corn prices than this oil bet

Our local end user went to no bid for today bid/purchase page

ok, I more time. Double or nothing. Below $40.00 or above $100.00.

Well it looks like a given that you will win this bet again. With Saudi determined to crash the price, How Low can we go, seems like the headline for this coming week. At this point, even $36 seems likely. I personally wonder how long we need to stay Sub $40 for American shale producers to finally cut production. My guess is about 2 full months of low prices will be needed. Oh well. Back to the charts. Good going . . . . . I owe you $4. . .

Hi Richard

You don't owe me anything

I was betting the world economy would slow down due to the virus, china using less oil, USA economy slowing down, world  useage, etc.

nobody expected this wild card

This is not because of the world economy, that I was betting on

I don't think the Saudi/Russia decision is a good enough reason  to lose a bet

Neither one of us saw this coming

It was a bit of fun

Oil will go up, I just don't know how much higher

That one I would not bet

Just you watch

 Russia will put the hurt on the Saudi, and USA shale operations with low prices long enough, to get what they want. 

Eventually a new agreement will be made

Russia has the leverage as Saudi needs the oil revenue worse than Russia. USA wants some kind of domestic oil industry,  for natn'l security if nothing else  Russia is the low cost producer

Russia will extract concessions, then a new deal and then hold on to you hat

Oil will go up

Just wait a bit to buy your cheap OOTM calls

This could be the chance you have waited so long

Patience and watch what Russia does 

Do some research on Russia oil debt, I think they have very little, and not very much in USD. That is why Russia is the low cost producer. Saudi has a kingdom to support. Russia has none of those expenses

I don't know what it costs for Russia to get oil to market

If you are doing charts look at 20.00 or maybe even lower. Not saying but markets can be irrational so patience

You will likely see a lot of false up and down for some time

Just some thoughts worth zip

And keep an eye on russia

Good luck Richard

This shouldn’t be a surprise.  Saudi has been threatening this for a while now.  Their position, if others didn’t comply, they were going to not try either.  
Some US oil companies were already on shaky financial ground, this will probably stick a fork in them.  
Depending on how the affects of both the coronavirus and Saudi....and if Libya gets their act together could be quite catastrophic to prices.  This is basically a throw down at Russia.  But this had to be in their possible scenarios as well.

Hiya Wayne,

 Your last post about the $4 bet with Richard did my heart good.

You kept the spirit of the bet in perspective and did not let the ego or greed ruin the fun.

Thanks for the example-more respect to ya!

John

Crude has been as low as $30 tonight. .down over $10.

Unbelievable!

The low so far for RB/unleaded has been 112.26...........also incredible, down over 26c!!!

Wayne,

Instead of making fun bets with Richard about the price of oil dropping, you could have made a million bucks being short 100 contracts (-:

Let's see now, 100 X $1,000/contract X $10 = $1,000,000 but the price has dropped more like $30 since earlier this year when you were calling for crude to drop.

So how about $3 million!

Good call by you.............are you sure that there wasn't any Russian collusion involved?