metmike: Facts/statistics matter.
We have plenty of solid ones right now to make rational/reasonable predictions that lessen uncertainty.
UNCERTAINTY is what spooks people and markets. There is no upper limit to how bad it COULD get with UNCERTAINTY.
The frame of mind that "its always best to be prepared for the worst, even if chances are minuscule of the worst" in this case has become "its always best to be prepared for the worst and their is a legit chance that this is going to be the worst"
UNCERTAINTY about the outcome has been used by the gatekeepers of information to take speculation and turn it into "a legit chance of this being the worst"
The way, way over reaction is totally the result of people thinking there is a legit chance of this being the worst. Also of the massive sensationalizing by the media and promoting this idea. It doesn't help that its being weaponized politically to convince people in the US with the completely false idea that the US is totally unprepared. This is pathetic.
I have high confidence, based entirely on the facts and science that we know with certainty, that at the end of 2020, deaths from Coronovirus in the US will be a very tiny fraction of the deaths from the flu.
Even more confidence that once they are distributing the vaccine, peoples fears will plunge.............because they WILL KNOW that there is a 100% Coronavirus stopper available..............this pulls the rug out from under the scary UNCERTAINTY which is feeding irrational fears right now.
If people knew those same things in the above paragraph which are based on science, would there be a panic? Of course not.........because those are NOT the points being stressed. Instead, we hear numbers of the spread and increase around the world and how much worse its getting. This was totally expected. In fact, its not as bad as I thought it would be. I never thought that China's numbers would peak this soon. I thought March at the earliest, if you asked me a month ago. China did some things wrong for sure but it appears that they got control of this quickly with aggressive measures.
Are we hearing that angle?
Rather than dwelling on the UNCERTAINTY and worst case scenario's,. we should be using what we do know and use it to lessen uncertainty.
One interesting fact of certainty related to numbers. With all the deaths in China, not one child under 10 has died from the Coronavirus. That is stunning.. Also teens and people up to their 30's have a 0.2% death rate.
It's mostly older people with pre existing health conditions that are dying.
What can we learn from that?
If you are young or have children(in school for instance-many parents would keep their kid home if they found out another kid at the school had it) there is ZERO reason to be worried.............even if your kids gets it.........ZERO deaths for kids under 10. A death rate similar to the flu for teenagers.
For some parents, when kids at their school had/have the flu(which is every Winter) if it was bad enough, like 10%+ of the school for instance, some might decide to keep their kids home. Would they do it for 1 kid having the flu? That happens every year with the flu at almost every school.
If people knew the real statistics about death rates in young people, there would be no reason to be so scared. Unless there was an outbreak of the Coronavirus at one of our schools, I would not hesitate to send my kids there..............but in the current environment, there is no question that if a school reports just 1 case of a kid with Coronavirus, it might as well shut down.
But think of what that means. One of the reasons that the flu affects so many people each year is because kids get it and pass it around at school. That will NEVER EVER happen with Coronavirus. As soon as 1 kid is confirmed to have it, their school will shut down.
Every report of it in the US, will cause people in that area to be hyper sensitive to take extreme precautions which, even if its more contagious than the flu.............will provide less opportunities for it to spread.
What will probably happen is that in the Northern Hemisphere, where its Winter right now and where almost all the reports of Coronavirus are occurring, the locations of the worst outbreaks will get better as the weather warms up.
Then, we will see more reports of it in the Southern Hemisphere as they head into their Winter. There are alot less people living down there so the outbreaks might not be as bad.
It will still be very alive/active during our Summer and poised to increase again come November or so at the start of the new "Coronavirus season".
It could get nasty next Winter if the vaccine, which they are close to developing already has not gone thru all the trials and testing needed before it can be widely distributed.
What will be the cost of this vaccine?
EVERYBODY will want it.
That vaccine, if affordable, will guarantee that the Coronavirus will never be a pandemic.............after the vaccine is widely distributed.
Everybody inoculated with the vaccine will be Immunized against it.
However, the vaccine, like the flu shot might only be effective for around 6 months(thats why people need to get another flu shot each year before the flu season).
So people who never in their lives received a flu shot will want the Coronavirus shot.
Depending on how widespread it still is down the road.
If for instance there are thousands in the US that get infected, almost EVERYBODY will want the shot.
If there are only hundreds or less, lets say, next November and they can get the shot, many people may decide not to get it but probably more will want it than a flu shot for a flu that kills tens of thousands each year(more than 100 times more)
Of course your flu shot only protects you from that strain of the flu for 6 months. They make an educated guess on the mostly likely strain to be spread around, then inoculate you with that dead virus.
People who get a different strain of the flu after the flu shot are sometimes upset and think the flu shot did not work.
Almost all people that get the Coronavirus vaccine will be protected from the Coronavirus. Ironically, there could be thousands of these people that feel safe because they got the Coronavirus vaccine.........THAT WILL DIE FROM THE FLU!
Hopefully, there will be an authentic education campaign that hammers home the reality of risks of the flu vs Coronavirus.
Probably living with the Coronavirus for a couple of years, people will accept it with properly weighted risk facts as they do with many of the other daily risks we accept in our lives(car crashes kill 40,000 but we wear seatbelts).
We've all read numerous articles like this one below.
Read it today and tell me you are not paying much more attention to the details/advice and thinking about it very seriously, maybe for the first time.
https://www.healthline.com/health/influenza/flu-season-and-school#prevention
Preventing the flu is a joint effort in schools. Students, parents, and staff need to take the necessary precautions to stop the flu from circulating.
Roughly 55 million students and 7 million staffTrusted Source attend school each day in the United States. The flu virus can spread easily when someone who has the flu coughs or sneezes, especially in a setting like school.
Prevention is key to success. But if you or your child or teen still comes down with the flu, there are important steps to take to stay healthy and keep others from getting the virus.
I will guess that diabetes is up there high because there are many other health issues associated with diabetes. Heart and especially lung diseases are high for obviously reasons.
We can make multiple guesses on why cancer increases your risk. If you are terminal, it finishes you off quicker. If taking chemo or treatment that is already kicking your bodies butt, it can't fight the Coronavirus as well.
The death rate for healthy people is 0.9%.
I wonder what the death rate is for healthy old people? Or young people with pre existing conditions. Probably it just elevates or decreases the rate vs what would be the case if that wasn't the case.
So, its sort of like dying from Corona virus is like striking out playing baseball (-:
STRIKE 1...............if your old
STRIKE 2..............if you have a serious medical problem
STRIKE 3.................when you get the Coronavirus (-:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
 | Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer Age of Coronavirus Deaths. Based on all 72,314 cases of COVID-19 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases in China as of February 11, a paper by the Chinese CCDC released on February 17 and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology [] has found that the risk of death increases the older you are, as follows:. COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE: www.worldometers.info |
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.
| PRE-EXISTING CONDITION | DEATH RATE confirmed cases | DEATH RATE all cases |
| Cardiovascular disease | 13.2% | 10.5% |
| Diabetes | 9.2% | 7.3% |
| Chronic respiratory disease | 8.0% | 6.3% |
| Hypertension | 8.4% | 6.0% |
| Cancer | 7.6% | 5.6% |
| no pre-existing conditions | 0.9% |
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).
I go to 4 schools each week and am around almost 200 kids, most in the K-6 age group.
Frequently, I sit next to a bunch of them and directly across one of them playing chess. I can recall numerous times when they will cough with an uncovered mouth aimed straight at me because of being on the other side of the board.
In 25 years of coaching chess, I only had the flu 1 time(over Christmas around 10 years ago) and only had 2 colds, the last 1 was almost 20 years ago.
And I take a high dose of prednisone daily, which suppresses your immune system!
There have been a dozen times during that period when my body acted like it was coming down with something...........then it vanished quickly.
My wife, Debbie gets sick more often each year than I have in the past 30 years.
I am thinking that based on this, though I'm 64 years old, my risks are not that high. However, when I did get the flu that 1 time and those 2 colds, they were incompacitatingly bad.
No question having an autoimmune disease (like I have) can protect a person from getting sick and for sure thats whats happening. I wonder if maybe only the most nasty wasty virus's can beat my immune system or maybe, once infected, my immune system is lacking in the ability to produce specific antibodies that target just that virus because it never gets to that point.
So it would be like a King, living in a castle that has the highest wall in the kingdom protecting it. Almost impossible for invaders to get over the wall and they almost never do..........so the King doesn't need to have an army of guards inside the wall to protect him.
But when an extraordinarily powerful invader manages to get over the huge wall, its easy for them to get to the King because
1. They must have been pretty powerful
2. His guards are not used to fighting ANY invaders and get their arses kicked.
Previous threads on Coronavirus:
Trump virus press release
20 responses |
Started by wglassfo - Feb. 26, 2020, 7:35 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48045/
Corona Virus
68 responses |
Started by kermit - Feb. 8, 2020, 11:30 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47120/
Where does my info come from
6 responses |
Started by wglassfo - Feb. 10, 2020, 2:42 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47204/
Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak Across the World
8 responses |
Started by metmike - Feb. 4, 2020, 7:25 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46972/
China finds virus code
11 responses |
Started by wglassfo - Feb. 1, 2020, 4:01 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/46800/
Coronavirus
28 responses |
Started by metmike - Jan. 25, 2020, 11:38 a.m.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/1st-coronavirus-death-u-s-officials-say-n1145931
President Trump said at a news conferencethat 22 patients in the United States currently have coronavirus. He said additional cases are likely in the U.S. but that healthy individuals should be able to fully recover.
Vice President Mike Pence announced at the same press conference that travel restrictions on Iran are being expanded in response to the coronavirus outbreak. He said the State Department has been authorized to elevate travel warnings to parts of Italy and South Korea.
Pathetic that some people will use a crisis to promote a fraudulent scheme using lies/fake news:
https://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2020/02/24/coronavirus-climate-induced-pandemics/
The climate crisis will also force humans to migrate, likely in patterns paralleling other animal species: away from extreme weather phenomena and warming regions and toward higher altitudes. The world’s poorest populations and indigenous communities, already in close contact with nature and marginalized by many societies, are the most vulnerable and will likely be disproportionately affected by increased disease proliferation. The climate crisis is already expected to cause an additional quarter of a million deaths per year from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea, and heat stress, with estimates of the direct annual costs of health damage ranging from $2-4 billion USD by 2030.
metmike: We are having a climate optimum not a crisis with the best weather/climate for life on this greening planet in over 1,000 years.
Without fossil fuels, the population of humans would be less than half the current population. Going back to the climate/weather and CO2 levels of a century ago, would cause over 1 billion people to starve within 3 years and food prices to triple.
The benefits to the warming exceed the detriments by 10 times. It would need to warm more than 4 degrees for the negative consequences to exceed the positives for the planet.
This person, like many others, because they have decided their "cause" to save the planet (the naive ones that don't know its 100% about global socialism) is more important than anything else, will twist all facts so that they support their altruistic, moral high ground cause.
The ones that know the real "cause/reason for the climate fraud which is entirely global socialism, are less naive and more diabolical because they are intentionally telling blatant lies about the climate to scare people to accomplish their political objective.
Again, the planet has warmed by just over 1 deg. C. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture (by around 6% in this case) so rains have increased, including flooding. Heat waves are a bit worse in the hottest months. Sea levels that have been increasing by around 1 inch/decade since we came out of the Little Ice Age, may be increasing just a tad faster but will still only be a bit more than an inch higher in 2030, when the climate apocalypse is supposed to be here.
Most of the other large scale affects have been beneficial to life on this massively greening up planet(though we never hear about those because they contradict the altruistic cause)
Here's the latest discussion using facts to prove those points:
NEW: Is climate (change) science settled? Real settled science vs climate change science. Climate change predictions have been wrong. Greening planet. 7 reasons for the fake climate scare/crisis. CO2 is still low. Outgassing from oceans. Ocean acidification NOT harming fish. Lying about climate to save the planet from a fake climate crisis/promote global socialism. February 2020.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/47847/
Get all of the discussions proving those points with authentic science/data(not scary words or charismatic teenagers being used by activist adults) here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27864/
Satellite images have shown a dramatic decline in pollution levels over China, which is "at least partly" due to an economic slowdown prompted by the coronavirus, US space agency Nasa says.
"We now have 75,000 tests available out there in the United States, and over the next week that will expand radically," said Alex Azar, Secretary of Health and Human Services, on ABC's This Week.
"Right now, it's important that we test people who have any type of respiratory illness — respiratory symptoms--that is unidentified," Azar said.
"More testing is sure to find more people with the virus—at least, those people who have been sickened by it. This surge in testing won't be able to tell how many people are infected out there with no symptoms.
Scott Becker, the head of the Association of Public Health Laboratories, says that more than 40 public health labs should be able to test for the virus by the end of the weekend.
Over the next week, he added, that number should grow to more than 100 labs, as the CDC sends out more test kits"
"Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Ben Carson and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Stephen Hahn on Sunday were officially added to the White House coronavirus task force.
Vice President Mike Pence's office also announced that Kevin Droegmeier, who heads the White House's Office of Science and Technology Policy, will work with the task force.
Both Carson and Hahn worked in the medical field prior to joining the federal government. Carson worked as a brain surgeon, while Hahn's background is in oncology. Droegmeier's expertise is in meteorology."
metmike: A meteorologist on the task force..........pure genuis (-:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
The 1918 influenza pandemic (January 1918 – December 1920; colloquially known as Spanish flu) was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic, the first of the two pandemics involving H1N1 influenza virus, with the second being the swine flu in 2009.[1] It infected 500 million people around the world,[2] or about 27% of the then world population of between 1.8 and 1.9 billion, including people on isolated Pacific islands and in the Arctic. The death toll is estimated to have been 40 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest epidemics in human history.[3][4] Historical and epidemiological data are inadequate to identify with certainty the pandemic's geographic origin.
"Instead, malnourishment, overcrowded medical camps and hospitals, and poor hygienepromoted bacterial superinfection. This superinfection killed most of the victims, typically after a somewhat prolonged death bed."
metmike: Regardless of how contagious the coronavirus is, one of the deadly complications of it and the flu, especially the Spanish flu is/was bacterial pneumonia. Antibiotics today make this very treatable and are/will greatly reduce deaths from bacterial "super" infections.
One of the reasons that the cheap disposable razors suddenly sold millions of units a century ago was lack of antibiotics back then.
Hugh? you might say.
Back then, people died from cuts that got severely infected. There was no treatment. Using a straight edge razor apparently resulted in many more cuts than what men get today shaving.
There were some men that cut themselves shaving, then the cuts got infected and the infection spread...........killing them.
In 1986 my wife and 7 year old daughter went to Ely MN on the Canadian border and did alot of fishing for 2 weeks. There were a dozen or so other mobile homes/cabins of people, mostly men there to fish. They had a fish cleaning shed with tools to clean your fish that was used by many different people. I doubt they disinfected the knives or any of it.
So a couple of days before coming home, I was cleaning a big pike in the fish cleaning shed(being careless because of too much beer) and cut myself fairly deeply. Not bad enough to need stitches, just an inconvenient cut that would probably take a week to heal..........and I healed fast and never got sick.
A few days later, now back in Evansville IN, the finger with the cut was noticeably red and a bit swollen. Nothing to worry about, it will get better. The next day, the redness was moving fast and going completely up my left arm by the end of the day. As the day went on, my temperature started going up.............I could just tell without a thermometer.
After I got done with the 10pm news(as chief meteorologist), I went to the emergency at Deacones Hospital. My temperature was 102 deg. F and my left arm was red and hot.
This was the kind of infection that killed people 100 years ago.
A potent antibiotic shot and pills took care of it pretty quickly.
metmike: There is a 100% chance that this will get much, much worse and based on the over reaction right now, no telling how panicked people will be.
Of course it will get worse with certainty before it peaks at some point down the road.............ideally April? but could be May or later.
It's inconceivable that it won't get much worse in the US, partly because its not bad here yet, almost nothing to speak of...........yet but mostly because its a contagious virus like the flu, which will spread for sure.
How much spread? I contend that 2020 cases and deaths will end up being a very tiny fraction of those numbers that we see every year from the flu. The entire reason for the panic is fear of the unknown and fear of a worst case scenario that has a fractionally small odds of happening and fear mongering by sensationalizing MSM.
https://www.kiro7.com/news/trending/comparing-coronavirus-flu/E4NZVS6BO5AABPCVVWDS222H7I/
According to Johns Hopkins University, there are an estimated 1 billion flu cases worldwide, and there are 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year. Last year, there were 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide because of the flu, and there are 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year, according to Johns Hopkins University.
According to CDC data through Feb. 22, this year there have been at least 32 million cases of flu in the United States, 310,000 hospitalizations and 18,000 flu deaths,
Both the coronavirus and flu cause fever, cough, body aches and fatigue, according to Lisa Maragakis, senior director of infection prevention at Johns Hopkins University, The coronavirus and flu can be mild or severe and even fatal, Maragakis said. Both also can result in pneumonia.
Both can be spread from person to person through droplets in the air, from an infected person coughing, sneezing or talking, Maragakis said.
So far, the coronavirus appears to be more deadly than the common flu, according to The New York Times.
metmike: The actual damage and threat from the "deadly, scary, unpredictable" Coronavirus can't light a candle compared to the typical flu season.
We are 100 times more scared over something that has a 100 times less threat to us.......based on what we know now.
Can you imagine the media all making their top news stories, all day long for weeks based on the updated numbers of people that got the flu and died from the flu?
A death is a death regardless of whether it was from the flu virus or whether it was from the Coronavirus............oh no its not. Not in this environment.
A death from the Coronavirus is 10,000 times more newsworthy than a death from the flu. A flu death would never be the top news story all day on all the sources. Never, unless it was a well known person.
In this environment, every single death(and new case(s) ) from the Coronavirus in the US will be breaking, scary headline news.
While the individual 30,000 flu deaths don't get a mention or the 30,000,000 cases of the flu don't make the headlines.
Keep that in mind when trying to objectively, accurately, unemotionally, scientifically and rationally assess the real threat of the Coronavirus.
It will be almost impossible to do in this environment!
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-march-2-2020-003013975.html
https://q13fox.com/2020/03/02/king-county-reports-14-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-including-5-deaths/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/handshake-coronavirus-greeting-habits-200303053743520.html
People all over are changing habits to reduce the risk of contracting the coronavirus and prevent it from spreading.
metmike:
The markets will not come all the way back for a very long time.
Since its going to get much worse before it starts getting better, we will be bombarded with escalating cases and deaths during the entire month probably.
At what point will some Catholic Churches stop doing the peace greeting at masses?
If it gets reported in their community, even 1 person infected and that goes bye bye.
Probably best to do it with a policy change handed down from above. Otherwise, you'll have half the people NOT wanting to shake hands and growing, while others extend their hands and get rejected, with a smile.
This could also greatly cut down on attendance at church services everywhere. For sure this will happen in communities that have just 1 case.
Receiving wine as part of communion? Say good bye to that in many places.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/09/health/toilet-paper-shortages-novel-coronavirus-trnd/index.html
People resort to extremes when they hear conflicting messages
Some are reacting to the lack of a clear direction from officials
Panic buying begets panic buying
It's natural to want to overprepare
It allows some to feel a sense of control
metmike: Note that there is no mention by this MSM source of the MSM sensationalizing this by focusing on almost all bad news and rarely providing perspectives to connect with realities of the actual risk(40,000 people die from the flu each year but if 1,000 die from the Coronavirus this year-we need to be 1,000 times more afraid of it).
However, this particular story is an excellent one for explaining how irrational it is to panic buy stuff like toilet paper.
Things are getting really bad in Italy. Many people are claiming that this is worse then a flu outbreak and more believing it.
Actually, its the coverage of it thats 1,000 times greater than any flu outbreak but is that justified?
There is a good reason for why Italy is having a MUCH higher incidence of deaths per infected. Their aging population.
The exact same thing has been happening in Italy with the flu over the past decade because they have so many old people, many over 75 with health problems:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285
 | Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons) - ScienceDirect Methods. We used the EuroMomo and the FluMomo methods to estimate the annual trend of influenza-attributable excess death rate by age group. Population data were provided by the National Institute of Statistics, data on influenza like illness and confirmed influenza cases were provided by the National Institutes of Health. www.sciencedirect.com |
Over 68,000 deaths were attributable to influenza epidemics in the study period(4 years). The observed excess of deaths is not completely unexpected, given the high number of fragile very old subjects living in Italy.In conclusion, the unpredictability of the influenza virus continues to present a major challenge to health professionals and policy makers.
Are we being told this fact?
Does it matter?
How many have died in Italy so far: Ninety-seven people have died of the novel coronavirus since Sunday in Italy, bringing its total number of deaths to 463. The country has 9,172 cases so far, the most of any European country. Source below.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/09/europe/coronavirus-italy-lockdown-intl/index.html
| Italy imposes draconian coronavirus lockdown restrictions Inmates rioted and overran a number of prisons in Italy on Monday, escaping their facilities and kidnapping officers, as the ripple effects of a drastic coronavirus lockdown in the country's north started to take hold. www.cnn.com |
Hmmm. That's alot of deaths and surely it will go higher but will it even get to the average of 17,000 deaths/year from the flu based on the scientific study above? To reach the average flu season, the number of deaths must be 37 times higher in Italy than what they are currently by the end of the year..........and this is the country in Europe that has the WORST death rate by far.
Anyone care to bet me that Coronavirus deaths will be lower in almost every country of the world vs flu deaths that occur every single year?
The age for all countries of the world that divides a population into two equal-sized groups
http://world.bymap.org/MedianAge.html
| Median Age / Countries of the World No information is available for non-listed countries. The median age is the age that divides a population into two numerically equal groups; that is, half the people are younger than this age and half are older. world.bymap.org |
I sent the email below to my sister a minute ago, who has a huge event with over 200 people scheduled for this Saturday:
This is why I was celebrating a week ago, that we were going to get our huge chess tournament in before the sheeeet hit the fan with the Coronavirus.
Patti,
Things are happening so fast right now on decisions and cancellations that nobody can guess what ND decides 2 days from now.
If you don't have any more cases today or tomorrow, then maybe you will get lucky and not have to cancel. If there were a couple new cases, then they could shut you down quickly.
Then, we wonder how many people will stay away in this environment?
I thought we would have an obviously higher rate of no shows at our chess tournament than previous years but it was not statistically significant.
We had a few extra signing up at the door.
I see our huge state chess competition being cancelled next Saturday. No way will they allow 2,000 total people in one place close to each other(in fact, at the start of each round when they post pairings there are hundreds, packed like sardines trying to work their way up close to the sheets/wall to see where they play) .
SPeaking of walls. The writing was on the wall already a couple of days ago that I should not visit Dad the last week in March.
It's likely that they will be in locked down mode and the only chess playing could happen if I was outside his window and telling him where to move my pieces on the board in front of him (-:
So obviously I shouldn't visit because, as expected this will for sure get MUCH WORSE for a couple of weeks.........before it starts getting less worse..........maybe in April.
Chess is done at the end of April, so I will come see Dad as soon as the Coronavirus shutdown is over.
Almost for sure, they will not lift all the bans when the numbers first start going lower.
Just to reiterate. We will hit the inflection point when daily numbers are still going higher but not going higher as fast as they had been............and this can be graphed. After several days of this(and the curvature of the slope of the cases plotted starts turning clockwise on the graph, we can be confident that things have turned the corner.
It will take numerous days to possibly weeks of daily numbers not going up by as much before they actually go down.
It will still take numerous days of the numbers going down before most of the bans are lifted. The criteria will vary but in some states, they might require single digit new cases in x amount of days.
This will be the trickiest thing of all. The Coronavirus is going to still be there thru the Summer, likely in diminished form.
The last thing that a state wants to do is lift all the bans and then have a fresh, huge outbreak that starts it all over again in a particular region................so many of these bans, which will be looked at periodically could last thru the rest of the year.
The only way that does not happen is if the Cornavirus is mostly stuffed out by warm weather which seems extremely unlikely.
You can bet your life that it will be back next Fall if its seasonal and any bans lifted will be reinstated if it takes on a seasonal mode.
Oh my!
I really feel for you Patti and probably every hour of this week been thinking how fortunate we were to get our chess tournament in last Saturday in the nick of time.
Like you, weather is the main concern(if school is cancelled the previous day, we have to cancel). Who would have ever thought, when you were planning your events that a virus pandemic would cause it to be cancelled.
Sounds like a smart decision to cancel the other one early because these bans will not be lifted for well over a month.
Maybe in states that have only isolated reports. Maybe then they can lift the bans but it seems hard to imagine that we will not have many new reports well past the Summer.
The numbers will have peaked but until we get a vaccine, this is not going to be snuffed out.
Heck, we have a vaccine for the flu's and still many millions get it each year.
It will be interesting to see how quickly we distribute the vaccine and what the cost will be. My guess is that if its before the election(very unlikely) Trump will make if free.
Biden might do the same thing next year if he's the guy.
People getting vaccinated for Coronavirus will be the #1 biggest contributor to the economy!
That cannot be understated. It's only then, that people will go back to their normal routines. When they are protected from the Coronavirus , they will no longer have anything to worry about! Things will get much, much better before then but that will mark the endpoint for potential damage to the economy from the Coronavirus.
