KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, March 5, 2020
7:30 AM ET. February Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +106%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 978.2K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 361.4K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 450K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 219K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +8K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1724000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -9K)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Revised Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity (expected +1.3%; previous -0.2%)
Unit Labor Costs (expected +1.4%; previous +2.5%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. January Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (expected -0.1%; previous +1.8%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.6%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +2.4%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2200B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -143B)
12:00 PM ET. February Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, March 6, 2020
8:30 AM ET. February U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +175K; previous +225K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.5%; previous 3.6%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 28.44)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.07)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.25%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +3.0%; previous +3.1%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.3)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous +19K)
Private Payroll (previous +206K)
Participation Rate (previous 63.4%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg (previous -514K)
8:30 AM ET. January U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (expected -46.0B; previous -48.88B)
Exports (USD) (previous 209.64B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Imports (USD) (previous 258.52B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +2.7%)
10:00 AM ET. January Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected -0.2%; previous -0.2%)
3:00 PM ET. January Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +16.5B; previous +22.06B)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was sharply lower in overnight trading as it reversed some of Wednesday's gains due to renewed concerns over the spread of the coronavirus.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9196.48 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off February's high the 75% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 8059.89 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9087.77. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9196.48. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 8126.25. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 8059.89.
The March S&P 500 was sharply lower in overnight trading as it erased a large portion of Wednesday's huge rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signals that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3230.94 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 2751.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3097.11. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3230.90. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2856.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at 2751.74.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as this week's volatility has increased. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at 177-11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 165-02 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 174-16. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 177-11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 168-19. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 165-02.
June T-notes were higher overnight as it is poised to resume the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Tuesday's close above monthly resistance crossing at 135.155 has opened the door into uncharted territory making upside targets hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.141 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 136.230. Second resistance is is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 134.012. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.141.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil was lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of Monday's rally.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.09 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 42.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.09. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 54.66. First support is Monday's low crossing at 43.32. Second support is weekly support crossing at 42.36.
April heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 160.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at 135.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 160.59. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 171.40. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 143.83. Second support is weekly support crossing at 135.40.
April unleaded gas was lower in overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 165.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 139.55 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 165.10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 174.69. First support is Monday's low crossing at 144.11. Second support is monthly support crossing at 139.55.
April Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.848 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If April resumes the decline off February's high, weekly support crossing at 1.611 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.848. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.965. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.642. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.611.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 96.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.42. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.28. First support the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 96.64. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 96.19.
The June Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the January 16th high crossing at 112.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.12 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is the January 16th high crossing at 112.75. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 113.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.29. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 110.76.
The June British Pound was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3057 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off the January 31st high, the 62% retracement level of the September-December 2019 rally crossing at 1.2677 is the next downside target. First resistance is the February 13th high crossing at 1.3110. Second resistance is the January 31st high crossing at 1.3253. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December 2019 rally crossing at 1.2677. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December 2019 rally crossing at 1.2484.
The June Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, last-August's high crossing at 1.0600 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0355 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.0570. Second resistance is last-August's high crossing at 1.0600. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0416. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0355.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower in overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off December's high, the December-2018 low crossing at 73.97 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.14 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.14. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 75.69. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 74.28. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 73.97.
The June Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-February-decline crossing at 0.0942 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0918 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 0.0940. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-February-decline crossing at 0.0942. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0922. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0918.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Friday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off the 50-day moving average, February's high crossing at $1691.70 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $1564.00 would open the door for additional weakness into early-March. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1655.20. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $1691.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1578.70. Second support is February's low crossing at $1551.10.
May silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $17.777 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of 2019's rally crossing at $15.981 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $17.777. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $18.920. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $16.400. Second support is the 75% retracement level of 2019's rally crossing at $15.981.
May copper was lower overnight as it extends the February-March trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off February's low, the January 24th gap crossing at $268.75 is the next upside target. Closes below February's low crossing at $249.45 would renew the decline off January's high. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $268.48. Second resistance is the January 24th gap crossing at $268.75. First support is February's low crossing at $249.45. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at $234.46.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's short covering rally. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.87 1/2 is the next upside target. If May resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at $3.61 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.87 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $3.94. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $3.65 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at $3.61 1/4.
May wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at 4.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.41 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.30 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.41 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $5.12. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at 4.95.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.05-cents at $4.53 1/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.34 1/2. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.61. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.70. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $4.39. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $4.34 1/2.
May Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.36 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off January's high, September's low crossing at $5.11 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.36. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.48 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at $5.16. Second support is September's low crossing at $5.11 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above February's high crossing at $9.10 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May resumes the decline off January's high, last-May's low crossing at $8.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $9.10 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.21. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $8.78 1/4. Second support is last-May's low crossing at $8.54.
May soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the November 18th high crossing at 315.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $299.50 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the January 14th high crossing at $311.00. Second resistance is the November 18th high crossing at 315.30. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $302.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $299.50.
May soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's short covering rally. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.29 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off January's high, last-May's low crossing at 27.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.29. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.23. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 28.35. Second support is last-May's low crossing at 27.85.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $0.75 at $64.30.
April hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $64.38 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If April extends last-week's decline, February's low crossing at $61.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $68.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $69.94. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $61.52. Second support is February's low crossing at $61.00.
April cattle closed up $1.18 at $111.28.
April cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.01 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at $103.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.01. Second resistance is last-Monday's gap crossing at $116.95. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $107.47. Second support is weekly support crossing at $103.75.
May Feeder cattle closed up $2.38-cents at $136.43.
May Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $139.07 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $139.07. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $143.58. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $131.55. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.31.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 12.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.81 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the January 14th gap crossing at 26.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.06 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
May sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 13.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.57 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
May cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.89 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, last-August's low crossing at 58.84 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!
Coronavirus fears are more important than other stuff right now.
BEANS:
The bullish dry period coming up for the filling Argentina beans is shrinking as the approach of the next big rains gets one day closer each day.
Now around a week away. The first few days will feature the rains in just the southern half of the Argentina soybean growing region ........missing the north, that will stay hot/dry.
Then, the rains expand north with widespread, robust coverage.
CORN: Some very wet weather for the southern half of the US the next 2 weeks. Not quite as wet as yesterday. This will lessen early corn planting opportunities...........but its very early and warm temps will help to trigger quick germination of planted crops.
NG: Broken record...........mild. EIA was neutral.
Stock market: Getting hammered again today..........no surprise. CV reports are, with absolute certainty going to explode higher/exponentially this month.........based just on the science of transmission and how many people are out there spreading the virus. Until we reach the inflection point...............where the slope of the increase starts decreasing and we have experts telling us that it looks like the worst might be over............the stock market is going to be very vulnerable and no way can it recover completely with this huge and growing black cloud hanging over it.