Everyone forgets 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic
11 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - March 10, 2020, 11:47 a.m.

2009 flu pandemic in the United States

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_the_United_States

The 2009 flu pandemic in the United States was a novel strain of the Influenza A/H1N1 virus, commonly referred to as "swine flu", that began in the spring of 2009. The virus had spread to the US from an outbreak in Mexico.[116]

As of mid-March 2010, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that about 59 million Americans contracted the H1N1 virus, 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died.


 

Pneumonia and influenza deaths in 122 US cities, 5 years through October 2009

The proportion of US deaths due to pneumonia and influenza climbed above the epidemic threshold in the 2007–2008 winter flu season but not in the 2008–2009 season.  Although the 2009 H1N1 outbreak reached epidemic levels of infection early in 2009, it did not contribute to epidemic levels of pneumonia and influenza related deaths until October 2009.




metmike: Perspective!

We are reacting and panicking 100 times more over the threat of the Coronavirus vs the Swine Flu and probably most people don't even remember the Swine Flu pandemic here in the US a decade ago.

Is the threat 100 times worse?  

10 times worse?

Around the same..................could kill 12,000 in the US like the Swine Flu did?

Less..............will kill less than 12,000 Americans?

Comments
By metmike - March 10, 2020, 11:58 a.m.
Like Reply

From the CDC:

2009 H1N1 Pandemic banner

In the spring of 2009, a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus emerged. 


https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html


The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic: A New Flu Virus Emerges

The (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from H1N1 viruses that were circulating at the time of the pandemic. Few young people had any existing immunity (as detected by antibody response) to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus, but nearly one-third of people over 60 years old had antibodies against this virus, likely from exposure to an older H1N1 virus earlier in their lives. Since the (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from circulating H1N1 viruses, vaccination with seasonal flu vaccines offered little cross-protection against (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection. While a monovalent (H1N1)pdm09 vaccine was produced, it was not available in large quantities until late November—after the peak of illness during the second wave had come and gone in the United States. From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

Disease Burden of the H1N1pdm09 Flu Virus, 2009-2018

Since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, the (H1N1)pdm09 flu virus has circulated seasonally in the U.S. causing significant illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.** Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.

Though the 2009 flu pandemic primarily affected children and young and middle-aged adults, the impact of the (H1N1)pdm09 virus on the global population during the first year was less severe than that of previous pandemics. Estimates of pandemic influenza mortality ranged from 0.03 percent of the world’s population during the 1968 H3N2 pandemic to 1 percent to 3 percent of the world’s population during the 1918 H1N1 pandemic. It is estimated that 0.001 percent to 0.007 percent of the world’s population died of respiratory complications associated with (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first 12 months the virus circulated.


H1N1 Pandemic Year in Review


  


By GunterK - March 10, 2020, 1:11 p.m.
Like Reply

Good point, metmike. 

I don't even remember the 2009 swine flu, 

And I have never worried about catching the flu in winter. Yet, today the whole world is worried about the corona, even though, at least at this point, the number of fatalities is small compared to the regular flu season.

Yet, there is something spooky about the corona virus. 

When you catch the flu, you stay home in bed, drink some Chamomile tea (preferably with a shot of rum), and you will be OK in a few days. The news doesn't talk about how many have died of the flu, and you don't worry.

But with the corona virus, we hear all these horror stories. We read about people who show no symptoms, and a few hours later they drop dead.

In China, an infected person boarded a bus, and 13 passengers wound up getting infected. One of them boarded the bus 30 minutes after the sick person had left. And they were all wearing masks.

Another scary thing about it is the mandatory isolation you are subjected to, once you are a suspected carrier.

And we all saw what it did to daily life in China. 

The normal, annual winter-flu may kill more people, but it doesn't put your hometown into lock-down.

hopefully, a few months from now, we will all look back at this time and laugh at the MSM for getting us so scared.

By metmike - March 10, 2020, 1:52 p.m.
Like Reply

Yes Gunter. Later this year, when much of this is in the rear view mirror and much more is known(most of the scary unknowns gone), will we see this as an under reaction, over reaction or just the right amount of reaction?

By metmike - March 10, 2020, 1:54 p.m.
Like Reply

I sent the discussions below by email to my family:


Corona just started in the US.It kills alot more old people than swine flu but less young people.

The main point is that people  in the US are stocking up on toilet paper, panic buying hand sanitizer/face masks and hanging on every new story from CNN and everybody is getting extreme with plans to close down events.
Did we do this with the Swine Flu?
Why not?
So the question: Is the Coronavirus 100 times more of a threat than the Swine Flu was?   Or any seasonal flu?Is it even a 10 times bigger threat?Will it even end up being an equal threat, after 2020 is over and we look back?

The biggest threat is in people's heads.

Did people go out and do their own objective investigations and interviews with medical experts or scientific research, then use this to form objective opinions based on critical thinking?Of course not. Almost all the information comes from news sources that make a living delivering the news. Are they objective and only state facts and don't sensationalize?  Nobody could know because they are not doing independent research to compare their facts with. The MSM and social media provide the vast majority of information about this and other news that is stored in peoples heads as knowledge.
People just don't spend time researching everything, so the gatekeepers have the franchise and can impose facts into our heads with impunity.
I'm not saying the Coronavirus isn't a grave threat.......it is and we don't know how bad it will get.
What I'm saying is that we perceive it as a 100 times greater threat compared to the Swine Flu in 2009 because the media is convincing us its a 100 times greater threat because their coverage is totally different than it was for the Swine Flu.

They absolutely are giving most people what they want too..........thats part of sensationalizing. Good news does NOT sell or every station would be giving us good news much of the time.
Bad news sells. Bad news generates block buster ratings.  Coronavirus is bad news from hell and the recipe for a massive ratings bonanza for the rest of the year.

I actually enjoy reading all the news, good and bad............but enjoy doing my own research even more...........so I can put into perspective the BAD weighted news which the MSM feeds us to keep us captivated.

The 2009 Swine Flu was a scientific fact(not my opinion) read about what it did and then ponder about why the news coverage was so different.One reason is that it was THE FLU and this is the scary Coronavirus that came from nowhere and there is so much unknown. Fear of the worst because of the unknown is almost always greater than the reality.  This unknown factor is exactly what allows speculation in minds to go unchecked.............there is no data to anchor you to reality.
By metmike - March 10, 2020, 1:55 p.m.
Like Reply

"You can't compare a virus that went full course to one that has only been around for a few months and hasn't ramped up."


Thanks. My point exactly.


"One reason is that it was THE FLU and this is the scary Coronavirus that came from nowhere and there is so much unknown. Fear of the worst because of the unknown is almost always greater than the reality.  This unknown factor is exactly what allows speculation in minds to go unchecked.............there is no data to anchor you to reality."


Do you think this will kill 10,000 people in the US?

Of course we don't know but the Swine Flu killed more than that.

If we can't look back on past events for perspective, then we didn't learn anything and in this case, certainly are ignoring what happened in the past and acting like this is the first time the human race has been threatened by a virus.


The Coronavirus IS VERY BAD. No question and like I have been guessing, we may have 10,000 cases by then end of this month or at least by early April and many hundreds of deaths.......AT LEAST>


When that happens, we all know the news will tell us how bad it is and how much worse it is getting, which is what everybody will then think.

When that happens,  I will be thinking "this was expected"  or even, its not even as bad as I thought and still not nearly as bad as an average flu season.

Its about perspective. 

By metmike - March 10, 2020, 1:56 p.m.
Like Reply

A death from the Coronavirus is equal to a death from the flu.


Yes, the Coronavirus is more deadly but in the end, how many people will it kill?


Remember the huge Ebola virus scare? The Ebola virus kills almost half of the people infected and that scared the crap out of people for several months. But then, reality sank in when people saw that it wasn't very contagious.


This is different. It's MUCH MORE contagious than Ebola but not nearly as deadly and it is a major threat but still will kill less people than the flu.....................so you can't insist this is worse than the flu based on fatalities.


We are in the phase of this major threat that we were in during the Ebola scare when people were the most scared...........before we had information.   Again, this is more than a scare, which is all Ebola was but the (MAJOR) threat is always amplified the most in the early stages when the least amount is known

By metmike - March 10, 2020, 1:56 p.m.
Like Reply

Ironically, I think that very aggressive even draconian measures being taken to cancel events and close schools should reassure us vs it currently signaling that this must be really, really bad because they never did this before.


The Swine and other flu's spread rapidly because people went about their lives as usual...........not taking special precautions.


With the Coronavirus, people are already washing their hands several times a day more and in places that report cases, people will be avoiding potential contact with the virus by changing their routines. This, by itself will cut way down on the spread vs how really, really bad it could spread if everybody treated it like the flu.  So this is a really, really good thing and the number of people infected with the flu will also go down.


So I am for taking most of these pretty extreme measures:

  1. They will help to lessen the spread
  2. People "should" feel better that actions are being taken
  3. They are all just temporary inconveniences.
  4. Maybe this will set a precedent for dealing with the flu that kills 40,000 Americans every year
By wxgrant - March 10, 2020, 4:48 p.m.
Like Reply

I do remember the H1N1 scare as we reported on it every night. The coverage was no where near what we are seeing now, but we lead off every news cast at KLTV in Tyler. TX with H1N1. My daughter Halen caught H1N1 that year and other than running a fever of 102 for a few days she was fine. Imagine a little 4 year old running around the house saying she has the pig flu. That's what she did. She called Nana and Grand Pa and said, guess what, I have the pig flu. My gut tells me in three weeks the overall hysteria will subside and things will try to get back to normal. I look at this event as a huge buying opportunity. I have bought more Apple, SPY, QQQ, XLE, etc. in my ROTH so in 11 years when I reach 59 and a half, hopefully I made a few gains. We shall see. 

By metmike - March 11, 2020, 12:25 a.m.
Like Reply

Texas was one of the hot spots for the pig flu, which makes sense since it came out of Mexico.

It survived the Summer and was ready to increase again early the next Fall at the start of the new flu season.

This might be what happens with the Coronavirus.


We WILL have a peak this Spring.  With luck and draconian measures (widespread cancellations or closings) in many areas that are the worst, the peak will come earlier, rather than later.

It could recede for several months........during the Summer but no way will it vanish.

Since there will not be a vaccine yet in October, we are told. It could increase again....with round 2 next Fall.

By wglassfo - March 11, 2020, 1:04 a.m.
Like Reply

I hope you folks realize the economic damage from the virus and oil spat will be far worse than any number of infections and deaths

Folks have got to keep an eye on the ball that counts the most

Face masks won't protect you from being laid off or??

These events are cataylsts  to economic disruption, the perfect storm, the likes of which is only starting to rear it's ugly head

A lot of this has been building up since the last crisis, but now it is serious or will be serious economic danage

A good example will be if Japan cancels the olympics

Or: If we have a credit freeze or goods don't get to market or too numerous to mention

Billions of dollars will come out of somebodies pocket

By wglassfo - March 11, 2020, 6:33 p.m.
Like Reply

Hi Mike

I have no idea about the virus nor does anybody else

But, just got off the phone with a close contact in manufacturing

They expect their outfit and most others will be shut down in 3 months or less

Shortage of parts and materials

Can't make it if you don't have the parts

One outfit switched to engines out of Italy

They are expecting a longer shut down than some

Might switch engines but that takes time and engineering of parts within the machine to accept a different engine. Costly process

Plus will the 1st engine provider be swamped with new orders 

Doesn't matter how big or small you are

The stuff is not going to be coming into your factory

My contact visited one plant in person, and read the weekly internal news letter to suppliers from another

Plus some phone conversations within the manufacturing industry network of contacts

Everybody is calling everybody else

The economy is going down

1 2 3 punch

Oil, manufacturing, financial