When will we know that the peak is approaching?

                Understanding the Virus with Math            

                Started by joj - March 11, 2020, 8:29 a.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48764/

metmike: We tracked the numbers in China and accurately predicted the peak on  Feb. 8th WELL BEFORE it happened in China by using math/the inflection point of the Coronavirus infection report curve.

 The pandemic is OVER in China........but we don't hear much about that. 

When will it be over in the US?

Impossible to know using the current data. Until we start accurately measuring the number of cases out there for at least another week and start establishing a well defined curve on a statistical graph.

The increases now, for instance will represent, not only more cases but the ability to detect cases that we were not testing for previously. 

This will cause the exponential growth in number of cases to be even greater at this point in the outbreak.  

Then, when the testing catches up to the actual number of cases, the curve will be a more true measure of the increase............which might look less bad because the testing increase has caught up and that is no longer contributing to the positive slope of the curve.

The testing catching up will be gradual and we can't discern between that and the reality of brand new cases(vs testing already existing cases that add to the total number).

1. So far at least another week, we will still have catching up + new cases that add up to an acceleration which is greater than the actual acceleration........at some point.

2. Then, after we are caught up............a de acceleration in the catching up + new cases growing.

3. Then, a de acceleration in the catching up + a de acceleration in the number of new cases. This is when we will have passed the inflection point. 

Maybe that can be reached later this month?

Dow down 1,200 points at the moment..

Considering that the news, with 100% certainty is going to get worse the next couple of weeks, its hard to imagine aggressive buying stepping in right here............but bottoms are impossible to predict.

It still seems very likely that we have ways to do on the downside.

An inflection point doesn't just happen, at least short of some utterly massive number of cases (The infection rate on Diamond Princess was about 30%). It requires changes in behavior, restrictions on socialization and massive testing.

We're starting to see behavior changes in the city - emptier trains, businesses, etc - but these involve fairly large economic hits, to a lot of industries. (Handwashing is still essentially free, but more than 8x per day makes mine itchy) We're also getting supply chain disruptions from China.

Testing is still pathetic, the latest reason being a reagent shortage.

The utter shambles that has been the US response is definitely making the peak later & higher.  

Great points Patrick.

Data with large numbers that go up and down and has a trend(s) should have an inflection point(s) which tell us about the momentum/acceleration of the metric we are observing/measuring.

Numbers will still be increasing and getting worse for a short while after reaching the inflection point.

And there is no rule that states we can’t meander between a positive and negative slope for quite awhile or have several small inflection points, followed by reversions to the acceleration for a few days.

Outbreaks could come in bursts that show up as spikes higher, that cause us to draw a new graph each day to incorporate the latest data.

However, there WILL be a peak in the exponential increase of new reports, whether it’s later this month if we are  lucky or after that and it will show up clearly doing technical analysis and applying the concept of the inflection point.

The graph could look quite a bit different than the one from China.....that peaked fairly quickly in many respects because of their draconian actions. 

Tremendous uncertainty.

I wild guessed 10,000 infected by the end of March from a couple of weeks go. 

Its conceivable that this is way too low. 50,000 would seem like an extreme outside possibility. 

Extreme measures now being imposed make a strong case to not expect the worst and I would be shocked if this came close to an average flu season. 

Maybe just 10%.

If this is seasonal.......good chance....then we will be rescued by warm weather.

If not, it’s not so good.

Either way this virus will still be here in October. If it’s seasonal, we will have big problems next winter without a vaccine.

Once we get the vaccine in wide distribution.......coronavirus Numbers will plunge.  So there is a permanent very bright light at the end of what could be a long tunnel.

Our biggest local industry is universities
They're mostly kicking out the students until fall.
Going to be a tight summer
Only saving grace is that the dottir in college is in Panama this semester & her crew is refusing to come home until their work is DONE!!!

          https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48739/

      Re: Re: Re: Everyone forgets 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic            

                By metmike - March 10, 2020, 1:56 p.m.            

Ironically, I think that very aggressive even draconian measures being taken to cancel events and close schools should reassure us vs it currently signaling that this must be really, really bad because they never did this before.

The Swine and other flu's spread rapidly because people went about their lives as usual...........not taking special precautions.

With the Coronavirus, people are already washing their hands several times a day more and in places that report cases, people will be avoiding potential contact with the virus by changing their routines. This, by itself will cut way down on the spread vs how really, really bad it could spread if everybody treated it like the flu.  So this is a really, really good thing and the number of people infected with the flu will also go down.

So I am for taking most of these pretty extreme measures:

1. They will help to lessen the spread
2. People "should" feel better that actions are being taken
3. They are all just temporary inconveniences.
4. Maybe this will set a precedent for dealing with the flu that kills 40,000 Americans every year