When is this going to end?

Here are some answers.

The scariest part by a wide margin is the unknown..........how bad will it get?

There is no limit to the high end of speculations of how bad it might get right now.

There is no time limit for the exponential growth of new cases and deaths growing right now.

There is no time limit/end point for the Coronavirus to significantly impact society.

When those limits start getting communicated by the media...............the panic will diminish. 

When will that be?

1. Data from daily reports of new cases and new deaths is the main thing to determine this. After the increases from day to day start to decelerate(still  going up but by less each day)  we will have the light at the end of the tunnel. Draconian cancellation measures will cause this to happen sooner and with less robust numbers. This will begin the visualization process in peoples heads...............to an actual end point because it stops getting worse.

Also, at that point, the potential worst case scenario expectations will have been contemplated and dialed into many psyche's, so news that "it's not getting worse any more" in a relative sense will be good news.

2. If this ends of being seasonal and evidence of that emerges and is communicated............the worst will be over(even though it will come back next flu/Corona season in the Fall). It will not go away this Summer but this scenario means it will weaken.

3. The quinnessential end point will be when we get news of the  vaccine being right around the corner.  We've been hearing 1 to 1.5 years.  That's not any good to help us now. If updated breaking news is something like  "We're way ahead of expectations on developing the Coronavirus vacccine and it will be available for widespread distribution in 6 months!" The stock market will be limit up that day. 

Regardless of the time frame and news, the vaccine WILL be available at some point and it WILL crush the Coronavirus like vaccines have done to all other major diseases. This is THE ABSOLUTE KNOWN WITH 100% CERTAINTY.  Well before this comes to the complete rescue, we are likely to get increasingly good news as soon as the numbers in the US top out. 

The media will continue to play a key role.  It's where most people get their information. They can make it seem worse or better. We understand that this has led to blockbuster ratings and profits and they are in the business  to make money(I was a main anchor for WEHT for 11 years).  Bad news sells and makes money. This is indisputable.  This explains the sensationalism by "some" sources.............but it will not matter as much down the road. 

Sensationalism is maximized when you are dealing with UNKNOWNS.........when anything is possible. Like, right now.

When we establish some knowns that define end points in this pandemic.........the speculation and sensationalism will wither away. 

With some luck, in less than a  month from now we could be well on our way in that direction. 

HI Mike

I think we can dispense with the past and look at the present

Nothing is gained by looking back ward

But we should look forward

Given that even today we still don't know all that will happen, we should take stock of where we are today

Given the EU experience, I think now is the time to seriously consider this virus may be worse than any virus in the past, including the Spanish Flu. That is not wild specualation. This is coming from medical professionals to numerous to mention. I have to think these people know more than you or I do. I agree to be worse than the Spanish Flue seems a bit far fetched , but some where in the middle is probably where we will be.

Just tthis morning my son telephoned to say he won't be coming over today. He has a cold and does not want exposure to any of the rest of the family

Now this may be the common cold or it may not. He has a history of the common cold or flue and the family hs had one bout of everybody in that house hold coming down with the flue since Mid Jan. This the second flue, as we hope it is. I have no idea what his symptoms may be as he just sent a text telling us he had a cold, would stay home and would not be in for lunch.

What to do??

He is 50 yrs old and has a good chance he will recover with no lingering problems, as that is the age range for best recovery

Or:

He could recover, but have the virus and be a carrier. There are 3 family members in that house hold

Now lets say we assume it is the common cold but are wrong and this is the virus

Does he self quarantine

Spring work is around the corner and if I know him he will be in the shop, getting machinery ready

This exact some senerio will be going on throughout the country

We have a problem, that much we know

When it is possible you or your family is affected then suddenly it doesn't matter what you or others who say this is a panic with no reason

How many others have the same symptoms as my son and will self quarantine or not

But he has ssurly come in contact wwith a great number of people in the past few days

I will be giving updates but as you know I still won't know if he had the virus and recovered or not

If the symptons become serious then we will know

Sorry for the spelling

My cursor has gone on strike and won't let me make corrections

When I said nothing can be gained by looking back ward I meant the numerous posts

We can learn a lot from what other countries have experienced

Lets hope we do not peak in 3 weeks. If so the health care industry would be over whelmed with a need for ICU facilities and front line health care providers, knowing that a % of the front line health carriers will be thenselves infected and unable to work

I think I will stop here as you know we don't agree on how serious this virus will be

But rest assured, I still maintain millions in the world will be infected

BBe that as it is, we can only wait and find out

"I think we can dispense with the past and look at the present

Nothing is gained by looking back ward

But we should look forward"

I agree Wayne with regards to dwelling on mistakes and the blame game.

However, the past MUST be noted and factored into most realms as a prerequisite to determining where we are headed.

Tracking the past numbers up to the current numbers is the best way to measure the direction this thing is headed and try to project  forward.

                Tracking the Coronavirus-best sites            

                            Started by metmike - March 14, 2020, 11:49 a.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48892/

Yes mike

I agree with tracking the best known information

Updated with new stuff March 17th-Happy St. Patricks Day too!

I still say my prediction of millions of world infections will be true

Even though you did everything possible to question my sanity

We are now at plus 200,000 with no end in sight

Plus how many in which countries that will never be seen on any stat number

Do you disagree with Angela Merkel estimate for Germany???

Her estimate seems a bit high but I doubt she just pulled those numbers out of a hat