Good call vbuck!

Dow futures down over 1,000

Unleaded below 82c .....market sees demand falling off a cliff........yeah, and going straight down, thru the earth to China (-:

That is insane!

Yea the gasoline is crazy.  Paid $1.73/gal Saturday morning.

1.73 is still much too high where you are..............seriously.

If the regional distributors stop ripping us off here in IN and also MI and other states, we have another 40-50c to go down, which is the extra cut they are taking from when the futures price was 1.10 higher than this back in December.

We are below 82c in the futures right now. WOW!!!

The market sees demand falling off of a cliff and supplies were already at historically high levels earlier this year before this man made crisis.

The Coronavirus is not causing this. The way, way over reaction, panicked/fear to the max reaction by humans to something not much more deadly than the flu(the flu will end up killing many more times the people the Corona virus does this year).

I was glad that they were shutting down many things earlier to lessen the spread but the markets and people are acting like its armegedon.............from a virus not much stronger than the flu which kills mainly the very old/sick who are protected by flu immunizations that don't exist for Coronavirus which makes the CV seem many times more deadly than it really is.

Selling looks right for sure.  But timing these markets may be financial suicide.   Be limber and wary. 

Unleaded below 81c.  Down over 9c from the Fri close.

Crude still staying above $30.

Dow futures really locked limit down.

Any guesses on how much lower it would be if trading freely?

More than -1,500 for sure. 

Rational thinking does not apply here.

For sure the economy takes a huge hit from everything closing down but everything is not closing down based on something that has a risk of being worse than the flu.............except to old/sick people that are protected from the flu by immunizations. 

Everything is closing down because of the fear of something.  A scary unknown. Fear of the unknown can exceed realities and actual risks by numerous times.  In this case by at least an order of magnitude.

One guesses when that something reveals its full potential and its no longer unknown.........the fear will subside.

Here is the latest US number, updated a few minutes ago.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48892/

The first number is the increase compared to the previous day.  Clearly, that number is still soaring higher. 

The 2nd number is the increase compared to the previous day's increase...........a key metric in determining when we will be seeing the inflection point. When this 2nd number is consistently not going higher and especially if the 2nd number can put in numerous days of actually being lower, then we might be topping out for the RATE of transmission.

New daily cases will still be going up when we start to see a deceleration.............but just not as fast.  This happens first, before daily cases go down which is what we obviously want to see but seeing the RATE of increase, losing momentum will give us the first clue of it topping in the US.  

Since the daily numbers are pretty volatile, we need numerous data points to have any confidence of a reliable signal. We are still going in the wrong direction right now, so this will probably not happen in the next week.

Let's try to update and analyze this daily, adding the new number each time, 3-15, 3-16, 3-17........and so on. Each day, ends at Midnight CDT. 

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

3-3     21

3-4     31+10

3-5     75+46

3-6     99+24

3-7    116+17

3-8    121+5

3-9    179+58

3-10   290+111

3-11   247-43

3-12   423+176

3-13   572+149

3-14   721+149

3-15   663 with 5 hours to go  and counting

In tracking this number closely, I have become aware that revisions of some previous days are being made.

The total number is 3,668. I am wild guessing that we will easily exceed 10,000 and could get to 20,000 by the end of the month. We need  many more data points with the ramped up testing and reporting to get a better idea but the exponential increase right now, may be continuing(yesterday's +100, down from the previous day may be an outlier)

Using info from this site; https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

We have a growth rate of about 1.3/ day or doubling the number of cases in a little less than 3 days.                                                       If we double every 3 days;                                                                                                                                                                     

Thanks cutworm,

So by the end of May, everybody on the planet will have been infected by the Coronavirus at least 2 times (-:

Looks like todays last number is going to come in around 780. At least thats where it is with 30 minutes to go.

Revisions the next few days will cause that to change.

EDIT: This post below and other older posts will be based on old information.

You can get the latest here:

                *Tracking the Coronavirus-WED. Close to Tue's numbers so far-may go higher            

                            19 responses |             

                Started by metmike - March 14, 2020, 11:49 a.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48892/

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Sunday's end of day update:

Let's go back and look at the number of daily new cases since 3-3-2020.

The first number is the increase compared to the previous day.  Clearly, that number is soaring higher. 

The 2nd number is the increase compared to the previous day's increase...........a key metric in determining when we will be seeing the inflection point. When this 2nd number is consistently not going higher and especially if the 2nd number can put in numerous days of actually being lower, then we might be topping out for the RATE of transmission.

New daily cases will still be going up when we start to see a deceleration.............but just not as fast.  This happens first, before daily cases go down which is what we obviously want to see but seeing the RATE of increase, losing momentum will give us the first clue of it topping in the US.  

Since the daily numbers are pretty volatile, we need numerous data points to have any confidence of a reliable signal. We are still going in the wrong direction right now, so this will probably not happen in the next week.

Let's try to update and analyze this daily, adding the new number each time, 3-15, 3-16, 3-17........and so on. Each day, ends at Midnight CDT. 

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

3-3     21

3-4     31+10

3-5     75+46

3-6     99+24

3-7    116+17

3-8    121+5

3-9    179+58

3-10   290+111

3-11   247-43

3-12   427+180

3-13   567+144

3-14   718+146

3-15   803+85                 total  cases 3,808

In tracking this number closely, I have become aware that revisions of some previous days are being made.

The total number is 3,808. I am wild guessing that we could get to 20,000 by the end of the month. We need  many more data points with the ramped up testing and reporting to get a better idea but the exponential increase right now, has slowed down/decelerated temporarily(it peaked on the 12th)

Sunday's smaller increase may have been an outlier because of what day of the week it was or for other reasons.  Numerous additional data points are needed to have any legit interpretation of the data........other than the fact that the new cases are still increasing.

We could still see some huge increases ahead.

We should note that there are alot of people infected that are not a statistic because their symptoms were so mild that they didn't get tested or need to see a doctor. Some didn't even realize they had it.

Dow futures still very locked limit down.

RB is below 81c again..........wow, just busted thru 80c!  Spiked 1c lower in a minute and must have hit some stops when making new lows  79.87 at the moment, down around 10c.

I noticed a few stations around here have dropped the price of gas to $1.94 at the pump............still much too high.

Cl managing to stay above $30 but down $1+

Corn, Beans and Wheat all down around 2c after having a spike higher.

Unleaded actually dropped below 68c earlier this morning.

Looks like Dow futures were something like -2,500 shortly after the mega extreme panic open from traders who were long and stuck in the LOCKED limit down move all night capitulating with "I want out now at any cost" mentality orders.

Now back to -1,300...make that -1,400 record volatility in the markets

corn -10..........unleaded is really hurting

beans -13

wheat -12

unl at 73c, crude just above 30 ............was down to 28.10

-1,600 Dow

UNL 73c

Dow down -2,000 again

UNL gas below 70c

Dow closed down around 3,000 but is +500 now.

UNL gas 76c +7c

The dow dropped nearly 3,000 points making it the single largest point drop in history. NBC News' Stephanie Ruhle reports on the impact it will have on Americans and the economy.

https://www.nbcnews.com/video/dow-drops-nearly-3-000-points-words-day-since-1987-80723525635

+800 on the Dow futures

Hello mike 

I think you misunderstood me. The inflection point will be when the rate of increase is1 or lower on this chart. If you could tell me when that will be some estimate could be made. ( there is a lot of data problems, but lets work with what we have) If we can stop people from infecting others ie. stop coming in contact with  people not immune to the virus, the inflection point will be sooner.  As you can see the rate is still above 1. I hope that the governments actions can change that.

 I did not mean to imply 

"So by the end of May, everybody on the planet will have been infected by the Coronavirus at least 2 times "(-: 

Chalk that up to poor communication skills on my part.                   

Also note that we only have data when symptoms show up actual infections are maybe about 5 days ahead.  So it will take about 5 days for any of the government actions to start to show up in the data. Also more or less testing will have an effect on the data ,but it is what we have to work with.

Cutworm,

I understood your point and was making a joke. Sorry for not being more clear. 

Dow +700         UNL 74c at the moment +5c

C and W near unch but S +8c

Thanks for the link, cutworm.
Looks like the testing bottlleneck is opening, with 1748 new cases yesterday. Ouch!
People are being careful, so the curve should bend, but at 8014 we're above your projectioin.

Thanks Patrick,

"People are being careful, so the curve should bend, but at 8014 we're above your projectioin."

You should read my thread dealing with the data to make projections, which I'm updating all day long, every day.

My projection started mentioning 100,000 as possible on Monday after we started seeing this weeks numbers.

Data from my first post on this on Sunday is reading about history but it did mention: 

We could still see some huge increases ahead.

Maybe I should add that to that post above.

You can get the latest here:

                *Tracking the Coronavirus--WED numbers above TUE numbers as of 4pm.            

                            19 responses |             

                Started by metmike - March 14, 2020, 11:49 a.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48892/

And whatever I think here at 2pm on Wednesday, will be history in several days as fresh data leads us to where we are headed. Then a few days after that the fresh data available then will get the most weighting.

Maybe I will need to adjust that WAG top side number of 100,000 at the end of the month.  If not for the draconian measures, I would say it would have been much higher than that. 

Regardless, the latest data and thoughts based on the current updated realities are at that link. 

We know there are many not tested

One person reported coming back from Mexico but since the time from arrival was longer than qualifying for a test. The test was refused. Perhaps the family wanted a free test. I dunno

Family went home and self quarantined

Family got sick, but what was it??

The common flue or??

Last I heard three members were or are sick but still not enough for a test or doctor appraisal.  One was a young child

The testing is so muddled there is no way to know how many are infected. I know our system in Canada is muddled with rules upon rules for testing.

This information, given on this forum, is the best we have but by no means accurate

MHO we will never know the true rate of infection

However, the number of deaths is the most important

One wonders why Russia has no deaths reported while sharing a border 1000's of miles with china

One wonders why the death rate is so low in India while approx. a 100 miles from china [just a guess on that distance]

One wonders  why china reports such low numbers so soon after such high numbers of infections and deaths

The number of infections world wide is over 200,000, I think

How many more have not been reported or even known

Best guess world wide is 500,000 infections but nobody can verify, and never will be able to verify. Does the person giving a best guess of 500,000 have any better information, I would think not as guesses can be so far off the mark to be almost tin foil or is the number higher. We simply do not know

That family returning from Mexico will never be included in any stats, unless a member of that family is hospitalized

In Ontario work places do not want people to walk in the door. If you must then call ahead. Social distancing seems to be very much on every bodies mind and people are social distancing, every where

All social events are cancelled, and quarantine, if possible, even  healthy families is considered the thing to do to protect the community. Almost the patriotic thing to do

We limit our town visit to drug store and food. on the same day.