Highs for days 3-7:

VERY Chilly, especially N.Plains/Midwest to Northeast.......warming up next weekend!!

Average Temperatures for days 3-7

Warming up by next weekend.........so the magnitude of blues will be shrinking as the week goes on. 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml

Surface Weather features day 3-7:

Cold Canadian High Pressure dominates much of the time but not completely dry(weak system in narrow band on Fri).............moderating this weekend.

Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.

Dry Upper Midwest down to N.Iowa.

Snowfall thru Friday. The snow in the Midwest is from a system Thu Night/Friday.

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112

Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

7 Day Total precipitation below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971

Excessive rain potential.

Drying out this week.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions

Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

Current Day 3 Forecast

Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Quiet for the next week.

Current Day 1 Outlook
Current Day 2 Outlook
Current Day 3 Outlook	F
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/prec

Current Dew Points

Latest radar loop

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Go to: Most Recent Image

    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"

Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).

Soils in the Central Cornbelt have dried out enough for early planting. Places like Central IL have done some work.

  Plenty of time to dry out elsewhere and it will dry out in the Upper Midwest for the next 10 days.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

Drought Monitor maps:

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.

April 8: No drought anywhere in the Midwest. 0% drought there.

The maps below are updated on Thursdays.

      https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/  

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z  Canadian ensembles:

Last Monday: Big battle between northern stream and southern stream. Upper ridge Northwest Canada and downstream trough in Central Canada to the Midwest is excellent for cold air delivery from the northern stream. Trough in the Southwest and points east part of the southern stream........moist flow.

Tuesday: The average looks zonal in the US because it takes extremes from 2 ends and divides them by the number of solutions. Pronouced northern stream with cold from Canada. In the US, wide spread in solutions ranging from a dry/cold northern stream to lots of moisture from the southern stream and potentially stormy.

Thursday: After 10+ days of strong northern stream with chilly dry air, the late week 2 maps show the southern stream taking over and northern stream retreating. Turning warmer and possibly wet for the last week in April..........for this model solution.

Saturday:  Zonal look to the average but wide disparity of NOT zonal flow from individual solutions. Turning wetter in week 2 with more southern stream influence. 

Sunday: Active southern stream and wet!

Monday: Zonal average and also many individual solutions with zonal.........so good agreement. Might be a bit active with fast moving, Pacific origin  systems but not that wet as deep moisture from the Gulf is cut off. Temps close to average.

Tuesday: Zonal flow.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Apr 29, 2020 12 UTC

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

Last:  Sunday: Decent positive anomaly N.Pacific/Alaska coupling with impressive negative anomaly in Central Canada that extends to the Northeast US. Favorable for strong, late season cold to dump into the Midwest to Northeast.

Monday: Positive anomaly Alaska fizzles out. Still a negative anomaly in Central Canada. New modest positive anomaly in the Southeast.

Tuesday: Positive anomalies off the West Coast and N.Atlantic. Main anomaly is over the Hudson Bay extending south to the Midwest..............very chilly in the Plains/MIdwest to Northeast.

Thursday. Slight positive anomaly Pac NW Coast area, negative anomaly Central Canada extending south into the Midwest.........source of more northern stream cold/dry on this model. Not agreed on by all models/solutions. Some are warmer and wetter.

Saturday: Positive anomaly southcentral US will really warm things up. Lingering chill in the Northeast?

Sunday: Positive anomaly over Greenland, modest negative anomaly central Canada could bring some chilly air to the Upper Midwest to Northeast.

Monday: No anomalies far from average. Fast zonal, west to east flow regime. 

Tuesday: Zonalish. Modest positive anomaly West, modest negative anomaly East(where it supports chilly).

Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Discussions, starting with the oldest  below.

Last Sunday: AO a tad positive. NAO goes from solidly negative(cold) rising close to 0. PNA a tad negative. The -NAO up until late is part of the pattern that will be excellent for delivering cold from Canada into the US.

Monday: AO still a bit positive. NAO goes from negative to a slightly positive. PNA a tad negative. The actual weather pattern is great for cold in the northern tier, the -NAO in week 1 is great for this but it increases in week 2, so we MIGHT warm up late week 2.

Thursday: AO is a bit positive surprisingly during  the upcoming near record cold.........unusual. Solidly negative NAO is behind it entirely. NAO gets close to 0 late week 2........moderating in temps.  PNA hovers just below 0.....nothing there. 

      Saturday: AO positive but drops a bit late. NAO negative but back near 0 late. PNA negative but back near 0 late. Fading influence from these indices that tell us more about the northern stream, as the southern stream becomes more dominant.                              

Sunday: AO is much lower today, even a few negative solutions, same with the NAO, so there is some support for the chilly air in the Midwest/Northeast to continue longer than the models think. Negative PNA moves towards 0.

Monday: AO drops to around 0, NAO goes up than down both have a wide spread. PNA increases to around 0.  Nothing from these indices worth dialing into the upcoming pattern. They are best used during the cold season as northern stream indicators. The -NAO at times does suggest some chilly weather in the Northeast quadrant.

Tuesday: All indices slightly negative. Leaning chilly to the Northeast.

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated daily just after 2pm Central.

Temperature Probability

 Precipitation Probability

the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

   By bowyer - April 9, 2020, 8:31 p.m.            

            80 degrees here yesterday....snow flurries this afternoon

                                    +++++++++++++++++++++++++

Hey bowyer,

Have you got some planting done in westcentral IL?

       ++++++++++++++

                Re: Re: Re: Weather Monday            

                0 likes            

                By bowyer - April 13, 2020, 2:30 p.m.            

There has been some planting done, both corn and beans. With the cold wet forecast for this week, I left the planter in the shed

                                    +++++++++++++++++

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Monday            

                By metmike - April 13, 2020, 4:40 p.m.            

Thanks!